• Hi and welcome to Betnod. Please register for even more tips, analysis and chat.

Horse racing bets Saturday 21st November

11:20 Kenilworth - HEAT FEVER - One of 2 meetings over in South Africa today and essentially could not resist this one at 100's.Bit to find at the weights, but has tons of speed and is being dropped in trip. Can't see much of a pace angle elsewhere, so it looks like HF will be there to be shot at. Can see the whole field streaming by, but for me still worth a small investment
 
Today is going to be "attritional" at Haydock according to the chappies on RUK, so I'm looking for horses who potentially have the stamina to overcome that attrition.

In the 1210, I've picked out Long Lunch. 1 mile 7 handicap hurdle. Horse is currently on the drift at 11/2 but that doesn't worry me.

Consistent horse who (apart from the one fall) has only been out of the top four once out of 13 races (7 top 2 finishes) which points to the fact that he's a tryer. Has proven himself at 2 to over 2 and a half miles and today's race is likely to be more like a 2 mile race if the pundits are right about the conditions - no doubt about his stamina - has a second place on heavy on his CV, albeit in a novice hurdle but went off odds-on fav which would indicate that connections know that heavy ground is no problem to him.

First time the Aiden Colman has ridden him but that's no worry as:

A -He's a very good jockey

and

B- He's been ridden by 7 different jockeys which means that his performance is not reliant upon a particular relationship with a particular jockey.

He looks like on of those horses who's a victim of his own relative success in that he doesn't seem to run a bad race and therefore there is limited scope for the handicapper to drop his rating, thereby preventing him from winning races that he may otherwise have won but I think he has the potential to improve and (barring a fall) at least place in this race but hopefully win it.
 
11:30 Vaal - Combination FC with these -

ROLLIN IN DA DEEP ( Chance on best form and bit more like it last time )
PERA HUR ( Fair recent form and versatile as regards tactics )
BLACK JET ( Nicely bred newcomer and trainer / jockey combo do well together )
 
I think the market has it right in the 1240 race with, No Deal, Emperors Choice and Copper Birch at the head. No Deal is the one with the lowest weight, the one with the least experience and the one on the highest rating it's been thus far so you are basically gambling on how much improvement it has in it. That's what I do with young flat horses at the start of the flat season so it pains me to go against that philosophy over the sticks (especially as it's been backed in to 4/1 (and lower) favourite but I'm going with Emperors Choice each way at 11/2, proven on track and going - but I'm going to have a little saver on a No Deal win just in case it flattens the field and ends up getting raised 10 lbs for it.:)



By the way, I've also backed the horse in the first race each way - not straight win.
 
3:50 Ascot - CRAZY PENGUIN - Nicely bred, fair enough debut and stable does well in this sphere.
 
5:45 Wolverhampton - ADA LOVELACE - Fair sort at this level and nicely drawn in 3. Drift to 8's makes her backable
 
6:45 Wolverhampton - SCOTTISH SUMMIT and PILLAR - SS is a nicely bred debutante and represents top connections. Been on the drift which is a worry, but 10's just looks too big. PILLAR went off 5/1 on debut, which is worth noting as the stables improve for a run. Beaten a long way, but obviously shown something at home and would expect a big leap forward tonight at 12's.

8:15 Wolverhampton - INEXES - Gelded for h'cap debut and did run quite nicely on both runs for the Gosden Yard. Initial run for the stable not good, but would expect better today.

8:45 Wolverhampton - ROXY MADAM - Ran very well last time, when unfavoured by both the weights and trip. Similar effort today makes her interesting, but could be one of those sorts that only runs well in unfavourable conditions and reverts back to normal when encountering a decent opportunity.

9:15 Wolverhampton - STARLIGHT BANNER - Fair effort last time and the booking of Luke Morris suggests he is ready to put in another decent effort tonight.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top