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Horse Racing Bets Sunday 15th November

S

SAMOAN

Guest
Just starting off with the opener over in South Africa. Would have quite liked the FAV at about 2's, but can't have it at 4/5. Gone with the following 3 instead, all at decent prices -

TURNUPTHEHEAT ( Capable sort, who ran his best race in a while last time. Best draw he has had recently today and Muzi Yeni booked, so am expecting a performance )
DHAAMER ( Poly debut, but bred to appreciate the surface and would expect a better effort at 66's )
THE MARINES ( Backed this one last time over further and was up there for a long way. Drop back in trip a big plus therefore and Keegan DeMelo aboard. Progress hopefully resumed at 20's )
 
3 real outsiders today and the " sensible " one is coming off a 600+ day break.

12:55 Cork - TOTAL SILENCE - Nicely bred debutante who should appreciate a stiff test and who will certainly get it today on the ground. Tough introduction no doubt, but just could not resist the 100's on offer.

1:50 Fontwell - PETE THE FEAT - Back off a huge absence, but with the right trainer now and no other problem with conditions.

3:15 Cheltenham - LIBERTY ONE - 2 from 3 over hurdles, but disappointed over fences and return run after a break was not good. Cheekpieces refitted today and the excellent Lizzie Kelly booked, so would expect better at 25's.

4:10 Cork - OLDFRIENDSAREBEST - Nicely bred debutante and the stable does well in this sphere and can get one ready. Possible " Dark Horse " at 25's.
 
Having a go at the other 2 Bumpers as well. Combination Forecasts in both races and also covered all possibilities for the Forecast double -

3:50 Cheltenham -

CAIUS MARCIUS ( Won newcomers Bumper nicely and stiffer test today will suit. Possibly aiming a bit high in this company, hence the 25's on offer )
VIVE LA ROI ( Another who is one form one and could turn out to be quite decent )
POTTERS LEGEND ( Again a winning debutante and another who should have a bright future )

3:55 Punchestown -

KING'S LINE ( Looks a useful recruit from Pointing circles and trainer / jockey have to be respected )
BILLY'S HOPE ( 2 Fair runs from 3 and respected on pair of best efforts )
DECISION TIME ( Some doubts about stamina on debut, but sire does get plenty of stayers and stable does well in this sphere )
 
Good luck today SAMOAN.

Just the one for me today, Sprinter Sacre in the 2.10.

Only a small bet, i'm just hoping that even if he's not back to his best, he still might have enough to win this. Henderson has given positive reports over the summer and 3/1 does look a bit big to me, enough to take a chance on him anyway.
 
2.40 Cheltenham (5 places Bet365 & Coral, Coral offer free bet if horse wins or falls)
TOTALIZE - 10/1 (11.0)
DEXCITE - 25/1 (28.0)

3.15 Cheltenham (5 places Bet365, Coral free bet if wins or falls)
ALZAMMAAR - 14/1 Coral (16.0)
THORPE - 33/1 totesport (36.0)


TOTALIZE looks like an Ellison plot - he finished 2nd to LAC FONTANA over CD in Jan '14 and we now know he had an impossible task that day as the winner won his next two races in style and is now rated 22lbs higher. He disappointed next time on his only other hurdles outing at Newbury but that probably came too soon. He's improved 11lbs on the flat since and Ellison seems keen to win this race as he's had 3 placed in the last few runnings.
DEXCITE went into my notebook when narrowly failing to land a touch at Newbury on his handicap debut in March (was well backed ew), beaten 1.75l by ALZAMMAR who runs in the 3.15. A decent 3rd on his reappearance at Chepstow when beaten under a length and he should outrun his big odds here.

ALZAMMAAR as mentioned above beat DEXCITE in March and a good run from the latter in the previous race will be a positive.
THORPE is a longshot but proved consistant last season at 2m and shaped several times as if needing the step up to todays trip. Was a little disappointing at Kelso on his seasonal reappearance but the ground was probably too fast that day (GF) and that will have blown any cobwebs away.
 
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I saw a bit of Henderson being interviewed yesterday and the impression i got was if it runs then it should go very close. They were concerned about the going and they were going to be up about 4am to start thinking about their decision. Small stakes at 11/4
 
7/4 Now and I'm pretty sure that price is based more on sentiment than logic and common sense. 11/4 is a fair price to back it at, 7/4 is not.
 
3:05 Greyville - Going with 3 rags in the last, so a real " Boil Over " would be nice -

TAIPAI TIGRESS ( Capable on best form and whilst risky, 40's still appeals )
JET FOR JOY ( Been a while for this one but does hold some fair polytrack form )
NIGHTS ON BROADWAY ( Couple of places from 4 goes at the trip. Bit to find on recent efforts, but not without hope at 25's )
 
Seen said:
2.40 Cheltenham (5 places Bet365 & Coral, Coral offer free bet if horse wins or falls)
TOTALIZE - 10/1 (11.0)
DEXCITE - 25/1 (28.0)

3.15 Cheltenham (5 places Bet365, Coral free bet if wins or falls)
ALZAMMAAR - 14/1 Coral (16.0)
THORPE - 33/1 totesport (36.0)


TOTALIZE looks like an Ellison plot - he finished 2nd to LAC FONTANA over CD in Jan '14 and we now know he had an impossible task that day as the winner won his next two races in style and is now rated 22lbs higher. He disappointed next time on his only other hurdles outing at Newbury but that probably came too soon. He's improved 11lbs on the flat since and Ellison seems keen to win this race as he's had 3 placed in the last few runnings.
DEXCITE went into my notebook when narrowly failing to land a touch at Newbury on his handicap debut in March (was well backed ew), beaten 1.75l by ALZAMMAR who runs in the 3.15. A decent 3rd on his reappearance at Chepstow when beaten under a length and he should outrun his big odds here.

ALZAMMAAR as mentioned above beat DEXCITE in March and a good run from the latter in the previous race will be a positive.
THORPE is a longshot but proved consistant last season at 2m and shaped several times as if needing the step up to todays trip. Was a little disappointing at Kelso on his seasonal reappearance but the ground was probably too fast that day (GF) and that will have blown any cobwebs away.
Click to expand...
Just missed the first of these 2 races, but added the above pair to my pick in the 3:15. Had a decent EW bet on both and then small stakes for the miracle FC/TC
 
Seen said:
2.40 Cheltenham (5 places Bet365 & Coral, Coral offer free bet if horse wins or falls)
TOTALIZE - 10/1 (11.0)
DEXCITE - 25/1 (28.0)

3.15 Cheltenham (5 places Bet365, Coral free bet if wins or falls)
ALZAMMAAR - 14/1 Coral (16.0)
THORPE - 33/1 totesport (36.0)


TOTALIZE looks like an Ellison plot - he finished 2nd to LAC FONTANA over CD in Jan '14 and we now know he had an impossible task that day as the winner won his next two races in style and is now rated 22lbs higher. He disappointed next time on his only other hurdles outing at Newbury but that probably came too soon. He's improved 11lbs on the flat since and Ellison seems keen to win this race as he's had 3 placed in the last few runnings.
DEXCITE went into my notebook when narrowly failing to land a touch at Newbury on his handicap debut in March (was well backed ew), beaten 1.75l by ALZAMMAR who runs in the 3.15. A decent 3rd on his reappearance at Chepstow when beaten under a length and he should outrun his big odds here.

ALZAMMAAR as mentioned above beat DEXCITE in March and a good run from the latter in the previous race will be a positive.
THORPE is a longshot but proved consistant last season at 2m and shaped several times as if needing the step up to todays trip. Was a little disappointing at Kelso on his seasonal reappearance but the ground was probably too fast that day (GF) and that will have blown any cobwebs away.
Click to expand...

TOTALIZE ran a gallant 5th, but the race was run at a slow pace which didn't suit him. DEXCITE was given a joke of a ride by Paddy Brennan, who strangled him for most of the race in last position before waiting until he had no chance whatsoever and then asking him to come from last to first. To his credit he did pass a few but off the slow pace had no chance. This horse will win a handicap soon I'm sure.
ALZAMMAAR was well backed on course despite being weak on Betfair, he too found the pace in his race too slow, getting outpaced before running on again, finishing 7th not far off a place. THORPE never figured in 12th and looked either outclassed or didn't stay.
 
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