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Horse Racing Bets Thursday 7th April 2016

S

SAMOAN

Guest
12.55 Vaal - RED ROOM - FAV looks opposable at odds on and for me RR is the most likely " rag " at 66's
 
1.50 Southwell - VONA - Drift to 20's is a worry, but not convinced by those with a run and this one is nicely bred and represents a top stable.

3.10 Limerick - GEALAN - Back off a break, but fairly weighted and goes on the ground. Shade big for me at 12's.

5.40 Taunton - EXECUTIVE PRINCE - Moderate Pointing form, but nicely bred and stable gets winners in this sphere. Interesting to me at 25's

6.10 Taunton - ROYAL PLAZA - Solid enough English debut and should be capable of better
 
12.55 Vaal - RED ROOM - FAV looks opposable at odds on and for me RR is the most likely " rag " at 66's
Was the most likely of the outsiders, but sadly could only manage 2nd. Did look to be travelling well throughout, but to be fair the winner did it easy.
 
4.05 Aintree - MENDIP EXPRESS and FORT GEORGE - ME is better than his 8th at the festival and today's ground will assist. Mistakes have been creeping into FG's performances, but was expecting 50's, so gotta have a small punt at 125's
 
1.40 Aintree
L'AMI SERGE
- 9/2
ASO (ew) - 40/1 SkyBet (1/4 odds)

L'AMI SERGE looked like winning the JLT at Cheltenham (touched 1.21 in-runninng) but weakened late on and finished 3rd. This sharper track and flat finish should suit much better and the rain is a bonus (soft/heavy - 111112) and barring accidents he looks sure to run a big race.
ASO is massively overpriced imo - take the 40/1 at SkyBet as not only are they biggest but also 1/4 odds so you're getting 10/1 a place (only 13/2 at Betfair). He finished last of 5 in the Arkle but found the 2m trip too short (early pace forced him into early errors) and after looking like dropping right away as they turned for home, he stayed on well to not be beaten far, the winner apart.
The extra 4f today will suit as will the softer ground. Might get tapped for toe at a stage so might go huge odds in-running before staying on strongly.
 
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L'AMI SERGE 2nd (went 1.56 in-running) and ASO 6th.

Disappointed with the way they allowed the winner to make all unchallenged at his own pace, but that's jockeys for you!
 
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