Horse Racing Bets Tuesday 27th October

[SAMOAN]

2:20 Punchestown - MOLLY'S AFFAIR - Won't mind the forecast rain and her back to back h'cap 3rd's earlier in the year do read well. Back off a break today, but does have some form when fresh, so not unduly worried about that.

2:40 Lingfield - BAMBINO - Final run in maidens was a fair effort and it may turn out to be an above average contest. Wide draw did for her on h'cap debut, but was only 7/1 that day and really should prove competitive off a mark of 59. By no means a strong pick, but could not resist the 50's on offer.

4:20 Catterick - PACO'S SUNSHINE - Very much an in and out sort, but decent chance on the best of her form and is still quite lightly raced. Poor last time but dropped another 2lbs for it and that run does fit her profile, so not too worried about it.

4:30 Bangor - BREATH OF BLIGHTY - Winning Pointer, who is very nicely bred and has joined a decent Bumper stable. Doubt if there is a world beater in the field, but it does look competitive.

 

[Seen]

3.00 Bangor
PRECISION TIME
This horse is a traders dream (or nightmare I guess, to those who get it wrong), as his running style means he needs to be produced as late as possible which usually results in him trading at big odds before winning, or trading short and losing.

His wins have seen him trade at bigger odds in-running every time, sometimes massively...

SP - in-play
20/1 - 110.0
3/1 - 34.0
5/1 - 29.0
8/11 - 2.44
14/1 - 22.0
7/2 - 26.0
5/2 - 9.6
7/1 - 8.4

He's traded odds-on and lost 5 times in his last 7 defeats...

SP - in-play
5/2 - 1.67
9/2 - 1.05
5/1 - 1.3
5/4 - 1.05
9/2 - 1.34

So therefore I'm going to put in-running back bets in at 30/1 and upwards, and in-running lays in right down to 1.02.

He's currently trading at 17.0 (had a small amount at this price in case he doesn't go out to 30 in-running) but I think he's got a decent chance to win this, he ran a decent enough race on his hurdling debut at N Abbot when 3rd. He had his usual cheekpieces left off that day (back on today) and may have found the 2m2.5f trip a touch far.

Of the 4 horses ahead of him in the betting, two have never jumped hurdles before and the other two have penalties.

 

[Seen]

Wonderful. PRECISION FIVE unseated rider early on. Front four in the market all got beat too