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Liverpool V Newcastle

R

Rushinrogan

Guest
Liverpool V Newcastle

CURRENT FORM
Liverpool
Home wins = 20%
Losses = 40%
Draws 40%
Average Goals = 0.8
Newcastle
Away Wins = 0%
Losses = 50%
Draws = 50%
Average Goals = 0.8
LAST 10 LEAGUE GAMES BETWEEN THESE TWO
Liverpool win = 70%
Newcastle Win = 30%
Draw = 0%
Liverpool Avg Goals = 2.4
Newcastle Avg Goals = 0.9
LAST 10 LEAGUE GAMES BETWEEN THESE TWO AT ANFIELD
Liverpool Win = 80%
Newcastle Win = 0%
Draw = 20%
Liverpool Avg goals = 2.5
Newcastle = 0.5%
Game Total Avg = 3
GAME FORECAST
Liverpool win = 60%
Newcastle win = 10%
Draw = 30 %
Total goals = 2.4 (With a variant of +1)
Projected Exact score = 2 - 0 ( with a variant of + 1)

Summary - On paper these two look closely matched but the key is the teams they have lost to and where. Liverpool's defeats at home this season have been against much better rivals than Newcastle. Newcastle have still yet to win away this season in the league and are unlikely to do so today. The best they can hope for is a draw which is a possible outcome given their tendency to draw this season. A key indicator here could be the Everton game.
MARKETS
BET65 - Liverpool 1.57 Draw 4 Newcastle 6 (Book 105.3%)
RUSHIES BOOK - Liverpool 1.57 Draw 3.19 Newcastle 9.8 (Book 105.3%)

Liverpool win = No Value
Newcastle Win = No value
Draw = Value
O 2.5 (1.82) = No value
U 2.5 (2.1) = Value

Please note - The above is a personal view based on what i do. Obviously i was bored today. For a start i would'nt normally evaluate the above game as this particular league and this type of game are not ones i would touch. Still someone might get some use out of it.
 
clap Nice analysis. It's sort of what I try to do for League Two games - with mixed success this season :cry
 
Thanks for Thunder.
If this is the sort of thing you are doing then i would encourage you to keep at it. The above is only the raw data but you can expand on it.
I don't personally bet on Premier games as my S/R is not so good. I put that down to the quality of the football. I generally find, the better the league the harder to pick. You might want to look at some of the lower leagues in Europe. Have you tried to apply it there ? Also, do you record everything you do and the outcome ? If not i would suggest you do. It's an excellent way to see how you are going. And, if needed, where to make any adjustments.
Just a comment on the above. Whats the result going to be ? I have know idea. All i've tried to do is identify a value bet. If anyone is happy taking a punt on a 30% chance then the draw is value. The U2.5 is definitely value. The 2 - 0 scoreline is not one i would've picked but that's what the info tells me. No idea what the odds are for that one as i never checked.
 
Thanks Rushin'. I tend to stick to L2 as that's what I know best (I support Aldershot so get to see L2 football (although I don't go to every game) and generally have a reasonable idea of what's happening with the 23 less glamorous clubs in the division. I tend to use the stats and then use what I know of the non-stat bits (injuries etc) - your 'expand on it', I suppose - to make my final picks. I recdford my bets and have notably less success outside L2* so decided at the end of last season to concentrate here.

(* Although this season it's my 'other' bets showing a profit and my L2's not...:banghead)
 
Actually, i'm more pleased about picking the U 2.5 goals. Especially since Liverpool have scored 3 in the last for meets at Anfield.
This may surprise you but i don't take into account team news or injury's etc. My approach is purely based on numbers. I also look for key games. As mentioned i thought the games they both played against Everton was a key game as they both drew 2- 2.
You mentioned that you support Aldershot and know L 2 well. Maybe this could be a problem. I know very little about the Euro' leagues that i bet on. I find that way i'm not swayed by any pre judgement on any given team and i am able to look at a game in a pure analytical way. When you record your bets, do comment on why you selected what you did ? By doing this ,sometimes you are able to pick a common thread on what it is that is not working.
 
Question for you rushie,

Why is your book 105%? by doing this is suggests that your over valuing certain selections. When pricing up a market you should always do it to 100% you say that Liverpool were 60% yet you price them at 63%, likewise the draw is 31% and newcastle a shade over 10%.
Really should be:
Liverpool 1.67, Draw 3.33 Newcastle 10.0

However apart from that nice work:thumb
 
Hi Pete, you are absolutely right on all counts. Initially, i did frame my market at 100% but i thought for the sake of comparison i would use the same as BET365. I also thought someone would pick holes in it if i used the 100%.
As for Exact % and correct pricing, again you are right . Maths is not my strong point and i tend to get bogged down in fractions.So i use round figures in the final prediction. I do not use any software other than spreadsheets and market re-framer . By the time i have fiddled with the re-framer ,the difference between % and odds sometimes gets slightly askew but not by much
Personally I find that 1%-3% doesn't affect my decision on weather or not to bet. My own range is a lot wider. For example, the 0.1 difference between the correct price and what i have post for Liverpool would not enough to sway me.
I know it means everything to some punters but not me. Hence i don't arb' either.
 
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