NFL 2021/22

[SAMOAN]

Week one has just ended, with a crazy win for my Las Vegas Raiders. For the first time in 20 years the defensive unit stood up, but as is the way with this organisation, they look like they are going to do things the hard way.

Tampa Bay began their defence of the title with a narrow win as did last years Superbowl losers the Kansas City Chiefs. In what was possibly a mild surprise the Pittsburgh Steelers went into Buffalo and won and it is the " Steel City " where the Raiders go for Week 2.

 

[SAMOAN]

I think that my initial post about the Raiders doing things the hard way, may well prove the biggest under - statement of the year. After an encouraging 3 win start, historic emails began to surface, which were written by then Head Coach Jon Gruden. Whilst plenty worse has been said the content of said email's were enough to force the coach to resign.

A run of 2 losses swiftly followed, but things looked to be back on track with wins against Denver and Philly. Whilst the next incident was bad for the Raiders, it was immeasurably worse for the young lady ( and her family ) who was killed when Raider wide receiver Henry Ruggs decided to drive drunk ( at speeds of over 100mph to boot )

Plenty of ups and downs followed and after a loss to KC, the Raiders chances of making the play - off's looked slim. 3 wins from 3 has reignited hopes and they now face the Los Angeles Chargers in a " winner takes all " game to make the post season.

The game kicks off at 1.30am today ( Monday ) and is on in prime time over in the States. The Raiders have won a record 5 times on the final play of games ( 1 Touchdown and 4 clutch field goals ) so fair to say they are pretty resilient. In the current 3 game winning run, they have turned the ball over 8 times, whilst failing to force a turnover from their opponents. Possessions in the NFL are finite, so losing the ball so many times, would normally spell disaster, but they have kept finding ways to win.

Almost forgot to mention the death of John Madden. Whilst most people over here will know him from the video game named in his honour, he was also a successful commentator and most importantly to us fans, was coach of the then Oakland Raiders for 9 years. His passing was another blow to the organisation and given everything that has happened a play off appearance would be a bit of a miracle, but here's hoping for the best.

 

[SAMOAN]

Unsurprisingly the Raiders blew a 15 point lead and were taken into overtime. Late on in the extra period, they would have been excused for settling for the tie ( where both teams would actually qualify for the play - off's and the conspiracy theories were flying around ), but Daniel Carlson came out and hit his 5th game winning field goal of the season.

No idea what they will have left in the tank and a visit to the cold of Cincinnati awaits next Saturday, but I feel when they do go down, they will go down swinging.

 

[SAMOAN]

Super Wild Card Weekend begins with the Raiders visiting Cincinnati. Two teams ( Tennessee and Green Bay ) have bye's but the other 12 remaining teams are all in action. Plenty of cold weather around with temperatures in Buffalo down to minus 15c. Slightly more manageable in Ohio where it will be around zero, but Raider QB Derek Carr tends to struggle in cold weather.

Vegas has been running the ball better in the last 4 games and the trio of Jacobs, Barber and Richard will need to rack up the yards. They also have enough in the passing game to at least keep it close.

For the Raiders have seen the phrase " team of destiny " mentioned a bit, but with all the drama surrounding the team, they could easily hit the wall any time.

Hopeful rather than optimistic but the Raiders were pretty much out of it 4 weeks ago, so one thing they have got is guts.

The other games this weekend are BUFFALO v New England, KANSAS CITY v Pittsburgh, DALLAS v San Francisco, TAMPA BAY v Philadelphia and Arizona v LA RAMS.

 

[Howson]

Who you backing in the divisionals Samoan?

Cin v Ten - is a tough one to call, a lot will depend on how fit Henry is, if hes at it I think they will get the win, but it will be very close, Burrow and Chase are going to have to make the big plays to win.

Packers v 49ers - cant back against Rodgers at Lambeau in the cold after the bye, but 49ers will be tough to beat, they are on a roll and Deebo and Mitchell will see a lot of action in the run game, I just think the 49ers will come up a little short, theyve done a lot of travelling over the past few weeks too.

Rams v Tampa - fancy the Rams for this, dont like going against Brady in the play offs, but I think Tampas injuries will take the toll on Sunday, with the Rams near enough at full strength and a bad match up for Tampa.

Bills v Chiefs - gonna be a cracker this game, shame its not the AFC championship - toss of a coin for me who wins, if i had to I would back the Bills.

 

[SAMOAN]

Would have fancied the raiders in Tennessee, so certainly see it being close. Titans just for me.

Packers, largely for the reasons you have mentioned Howson. Joey Bosa and Fred Warner seem to be trending towards playing which would be a big boost for the niners defence, but not sure they can bring enough " heat "

Hard to have enough faith in Matthew Stafford, but he has the receivers and Cam Akers coming back late in the season was a huge boost to the ground game. He and Sony Michel are a good running back combo and not only can the offence win them the game, but the defence has the personnel to limit Tom Brady.

Do think any raider run would have ended in either Kansas City or Buffalo, so at least no worries about getting embarrassed. Bills looked so good last week, but had occasional struggles during the regular season. The emergence of Dawson Knox has made a big difference and the receiving trio of Diggs, Beasley and Gabriel Davis, plus an improved running game does have the Bills as marginal favourites for me.

Hopefully no erroneous whistles this week, though if one were to happen, hopefully for me ( and other raider fans ) it goes against KC.

Straight up then, its Tennessee, Green Bay, LA Rams and Buffalo for me. The Bills at +2 would offer more security and would not put anyone off Cincy or San Fran getting a head start on the handicap.

 

[SAMOAN]

Super Bowl 56 is tonight with kick off scheduled for 11.30pm. Cincinnati are representing the AFC, with NFC Champions the LA Rams providing the opposition. For the second time in as many years ( having not happened for the first 54 finals ) a team is playing in its own stadium. ( though officially the Rams are the nominal away side ) LA and Arsenal FC owner Stan Kroenke splashed out $5bn to build the SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to bring the Super Bowl back to the City.

Probably not the biggest surprise that the Rams are gracing their home venue as they spent big and gave up future draft picks to try and " win it now, " but the Bengals were as big as 125's to lift the trophy and realistically a play off berth was probably what most of the " Who Dey Nation " were hoping for.

Cincy are 0 for 2 in Superbowls, with both losses coming to the 49ers ( the latter of those came in 1989 with the iconic and oft replayed Joe Montana to John Taylor last minute Touchdown pass ) whilst the Rams are 1 from 4.

If the Rams win they will become the third franchise to win Super Bowls while being located in two cities, after the Colts - Baltimore and Indianapolis - and the Raiders, who have won while in Oakland and Los Angeles ( and hopefully soon in Vegas )

The handicap line has been fairly consistent, with LA a general 4.5 point favourite. Do have the Rams winning myself and think they are value for a bit more, but it is the Superbowl and the underdogs have won 6 out of the last 10.

Taking the normal outsider route with my Most Valuable Player bets, but got a £5 free bet through and went with Sony Michel ( 2nd string LA running back ) to score anytime at 3's.

For first TD Scorer, I went with CAM AKERS of the Rams at 8's and TEE HIGGINS of the Bengals at 10's.

For the MVP award I went with the following ( All prices Bet365 ) -

JOE MIXON, Running Back ( Cincy ) at 33's
CAM AKERS, Running Back ( LA ) at 33's
EVAN MCPHERSON, Kicker ( Cincy ) at 50's
JESSIE BATES, Safety ( Cincy ) at 200's
MATT GAY, Kicker ( LA ) at 350's
BRANDON ALLEN, Back Up QB ( Cincy ) at 500's
JOHN WALFORD, Back Up QB ( LA ) at 500's

The 2 starting running backs are probably a bit big at 33's, but of course the starting QB's are taking up the bulk of the market. Defender Von Miller won the MVP back in 2015 when with the Denver Broncos and is 40/1 to win it again tonight. His Rams colleague Aaron Donald, is widely regarded as one of the best non QB's in the league and is 14/1 to win the award. Both should have big games, so would not put anyone off backing either.

For my defender I went with Jessie Bates who has played well in the Bengals play off run and is certainly capable of making more big plays today.

There is a marked difference in the odds for the kickers ( though the Bengals kicker is available at bigger ) but this is more a form thing as McPherson has been perfect to date in the play off's and overall has enjoyed a very good rookie season. Still if it is a field goal game and one kicker hits 5 or 6 field goals in the game, it would be difficult to look elsewhere.

Going with back up Quarter Backs is always a fun bet and if one of the 2 did have to step in, they could easily win the award based simply on the " romance " element of them coming in and leading their term to victory.