Npower League 1 & 2 betting 19th March

[slick]

English League 1
19 Mar 19:45 UK Bury v Stevenage 2.50 3.30 2.80
19 Mar 19:45 UK Crewe v MK Dons 2.80 3.20 2.50
19 Mar 19:45 UK Oldham v Hartlepool 2.00 3.30 3.80
19 Mar 19:45 UK Yeovil v Swindon 2.87 3.20 2.50

English League 2
19 Mar 19:45 UK Accrington v Wimbledon 2.62 3.10 2.80
19 Mar 19:45 UK Bradford v Wycombe 1.91 3.50 4.00
19 Mar 19:45 UK Rochdale v Gillingham 3.20 3.20 2.30
19 Mar 19:45 UK Southend v Plymouth 1.73 3.50 5.00
19 Mar 19:45 UK Torquay v Chesterfield 2.70 3.10 2.70
19 Mar 20:00 UK Barnet v Fleetwood 2.87 3.20 2.50

Odds William Hill

 

[fbettingfriends.co.uk]

League One, Yeovil Town - Swindon Town, both teams to score ast 1.83 (Unibet)
Yeovil seven wins out of last eight games at home and they’ve scored at least one goal in 15 out of last 16 at their Huish Park. On the other hand, Swindon have scored at least a goal in 15 out of last 17 games on the road and in three games since Kevin MacDonald took the charge, there was a total of 10 goals (5 for, 5 against).

 

[ThunderCelt]

Good luck

I'm on BetVic's 3/4 under 2.5 at Barnet; the hole sides lacking the creativity of Davids and with Lopez' loan finished they might struggle to score. Fleetwood generally keep it tight on their travels.

 

[ThunderCelt]

Very small profit for me whatever happens in the last seven or eight as I hedged at 2-0 with 10 minutes to go.

As I'm on Aldershot to go down at long odds in theory it's been a good evening, but I still feel sick as a parrot

 

[rcgills]

As I'm on Aldershot to go down at long odds in theory it's been a good evening, but I still feel sick as a parrot

Certainly a bad set of result for Aldershot (and York) last night, pretty incredible really that all 4 of the teams down at the bottom won their game in hand last night.

So who do you reckon will go down? York's run-in looks arguably the best of everyone down there, only Northampton of the top teams to play (I'm not counting Southend - 1pt from a run of 3 home games against teams in the bottom 5 has finished off their chances, I suspect). Games against 3 of their direct rivals too, Accrington and Plymouth at home, Torquay away.

Aldershot's April fixtures don't look too bad - you've got to be looking to take points from all of those home games - Oxford, Dagenham, Southend - none of them really have anything to play for. Port Vale away next, and if there's a time you want to be playing Port Vale this season, it's probably now, with the fans getting on their backs lately.

Accrington's run-in not too bad either, and they're scoring goals lately too (albeit only against the lower sides).

Barnet should be able to pull clear, I'd say - decent home form, and 4 home games left, 3 of them (Chesterfield, Wycombe, Dagenham) very winnable.

Before last night, I thought Plymouth were doomed. Good result last night, but I still think they're going to struggle, their fixtures look the worst of the lot. All their remaining home games are against top 7 sides, and although their away games (apart from Burton) are against mid-table or struggling sides, still wouldn't fancy them to pick up enough points away from home to pull clear.

Torquay have a very friendly looking run-in, but are in terrible form though. Can't see them not getting enough points to survive though.

Last night's result will have hurt Wimbledon, but they were on a good run before that, and with 45 points already, reckon another 6 should probably see them safe (50 should be enough for safety, but they'll need an extra point for their terrible goal difference).

If I had to guess now, I'd say it's Plymouth and one from either Aldershot or Accrington. Fingers crossed Gillingham can do you a favour on Saturday.

 

[ThunderCelt]

I wish I knew rc; I've given up trying to predict this league and I've been focussing my betting elsewhere and on anteposts for the last few months because of L2's unpredictability.

Before last night I had Accrington and Plymouth to go down, with Torquay and Aldershot only just above the line. Last night's results and Saturday's tough game at Vale (although I agree this is a good time to play them) leaves us looking very exposed, I think, particularly because we never look likely to outscore the opposition despite looking mid-table solid at the back.

 

[Punter]

I cringed for you when I see those scores last night TC. I hate to say it but I think your doomed. It's possible 4 wins out of your remaining 7 might not be enough even. I hope i'm wrong, as I know what a sickener it is.
I've had it twice in the past 14/15 seasons. Hereford got relegated from the football league on my birthday last time, while Liverpool were being beat in the FA Cup final, all on the same day. I launched our cat that day.
As I said I hope i'm wrong though and you make the great escape

Well done RC, with The Gills, I'm confident you've bagged automatic promotion now and you're looking every bit like league winners too, great season
I had both you and Burton down for a poor season back in August

 

[ThunderCelt]

Thanks Punter. After losing the club I thought relegation wouldn't worry me but I think it will. I agree we're more likely to go down than not.

And in all the excitement at the interesting end of the table forgot to give credit to the Gills. A lot of Shots fans wanted them to do well as they played the most attractive football of all our visitors last year.

 

[rcgills]

It's possible 4 wins out of your remaining 7 might not be enough even.

You think so Punter? I know it's pretty tight at the bottom, but 52pts is normally enough to survive even in a division where 4 go down, isn't it, never mind when only 2 go down. I'd be amazed if anyone gets relegated this season with 52pts.

I think Aldershot need to be looking for 7pts at least from those 3 home games, and then another 2 or 3pts away from home, probably from Rochdale and/or Wycombe (or hope Rotherham are guaranteed 4th or 5th place by the final day, and with nothing at stake in the final game, rest players against Aldershot ahead of their forthcoming playoff campaign). If (big if I know, but it's possible) they manage that, I reckon they'll survive.

Good luck Thundercelt.

 

[Punter]

You think so Punter?

No, you're right, 52pts is usually enough. I just think that with so many still fighting relegation, most of them will start winning games, as some of them have started to show in recent weeks. I do think the 2nd bottom team will be relegated on record points.

 

[rcgills]

No, you're right, 52pts is usually enough. I just think that with so many still fighting relegation, most of them will start winning games, as some of them have started to show in recent weeks. I do think the 2nd bottom team will be relegated on record points.

You could be right, Punter. Any idea what the record is? I had a look back over the last 10 or so seasons, think 50pts was the biggest I saw (although I can't remember now whether it was 50pts went down, or 50pts was enough to survive).

 

[swooperman]

That sounds very much like ODM's pet hate, the 'need to win' syndrome, Punt

We may well be having a joint literary consolatory pint on our respective last days, TC

Although I'm kinda hoping you'll be listening to Seen swearing instead

 

[Punter]

I've no idea what the record is RC, I think Hereford got relegated on 49 pts the 1st time round? I remember thinking we hadn't played too bad that season too lol.

No not need to win Swoop's, although they do need to. I meant there's no team safe and everybody has the chance/motivation to escape.
Big game next week mate, I think the Villa might win it.
Look out for our mascot, Joshua Jackson, I can see both sets of fans chanting his name