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Npower League Playoff Betting 11-15th May

slick

slick

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English League 1
11 May 19:45 UK Stevenage v Sheff Utd 2.37 3.10 2.62
12 May 12:30 UK MK Dons v Huddersfield 2.15 3.10 3.00

English League 2
12 May 17:30 UK Crewe v Southend 2.30 3.10 2.75 + 102 Bets
13 May 12:00 UK Cheltenham v Torquay 2.20 3.00 3.00

Odds William Hill
 
Fancy Crewe at 10/3 with WillHill to win the League 2 playoffs, they've put together an impressive unbeaten run over the past few months. They drew with Torquay away recently and have beaten Cheltenham. They have a very young side and the stand out player in the league 18 year old Nick Powell who has 14 goals from midfield.
 
sin2bad said:
Fancy Crewe at 10/3 with WillHill to win the League 2 playoffs, they've put together an impressive unbeaten run over the past few months. They drew with Torquay away recently and have beaten Cheltenham. They have a very young side and the stand out player in the league 18 year old Nick Powell who has 14 goals from midfield.
Click to expand...

er,I have some good news and bad news sinbad.....

The "good" news is that I agree that this does seem to be a genuinely value price(probably the only value available for the rest of this season).....the bad news is that some people on here believe Im a chalarton and,LMC tipster has gone for Southend.....
 
My guess is Southend; I think both quality and form are on their side, but I woudn't take them at the price. As far as match bets and outrights go I'll stick to hedging my anteposts. If I was going for a value punt I'd look at Cheltenham as semi-final opponents Torquay are on a bad run and in a tie where bottle and confidence is important that might just give the Robins the edge in the semi. But it's not for me.

My only bet so far is on unders at Cheltenham v Torquay. The home side when I saw them beat Aldershot played one up front even on their own patch and relied on scoring from one of their few chances. In fairness it worked against Aldershot :mad:. I ain't seen Torquay this season, but they're generally an unders side. Having seen Aldershot in four play-off campaigns over the years my impression is that teams feel not being at a disadvantage for the second leg is more important than gaining an advantage, so I think there's some legs in the generally available 8/11.
 
Well done TC.I had to break my enforced ban on looking at scores to look at this result.
I was a bit annoyed that there were 2 goals in it for reasons I wont bore you with.

A couple of things,a friend has told me there were only 3 goals in total in the other play-offs...Stevenage,MKDons and Crewe...so assuming no game had 3 goals it would a[ppear that betting on unders in the first legs of play-offs may be a genuinely value bet.(almost regardless of the teams it would appear,and,indeed,I believe Kevin Pullein has stated something on these lines)
I will def. be checking past stats and if they bear this out I will go "heavy" on these bets....in doubles and trebles...every season from now on.(heavy for someone whos retired!)

As far as Cheltenham being value is concerned,I dont think its cos of Torquays form-I believe their form is probably a coincidence-rather I believe this result may well be more due to Cheltenham having improved in the last few weeks after a dismal run.

"Unfortunately" my friend has "indicated"that MK Dons may have lost to Huddersfield(dont know if that would be good or bad til I find out what occurs in France later!!!!:eek:) so that would mean my Cheltenham MK Dons double in my thread which wouldve made a huge difference wont be any help:ohwell .
 
You're right, hotspur, first legs tend to go under - every one Aldershot have been involved in has, I think - but the bookies recognise that. I think this game was one of the more geneous prices for 'traditionally' unders sides. Even so with two goals after fifty minutes I guess I'm lucky it sneaked home.

But given my anteposts and this unders bet 2-0 was almost the perfect score for me, if not for you!
 
hmm ,well,even if the bookies go 4-7 unders next season I will still be doing doubles and trebles as its possible that even that price may be value-after all it seems that every first leg was under this season?
The bookies also recognise that a lot of people never bet on unders and this is also factored into the prices.

In the event Montpelliers last gasp win last night meant that Cheltenhams 2 goal win didnt matter.
I had a position on Torquay and PSG which Id intended to hedge with PSG and Cheltenham....but hadnt realised the kick-off was so early!!
 
er,btw,just in case anyone thinks theres any aftertiming in that post,there isnt since my intended bet was Cheltenham AND PSG which looks very much like being a loser.
Also I still will be betting on those 2 with a team in league 1 and that pretty much completes my antepost bets for this season.
 
hmmm,cant find the lge 1 and 2 previous results but 7 of the last 8 1st legs in the Championship have been unders while 6 out of 8 2nd legs have been overs.
However one must always be aware that coincidence is the reason for most stats and over 52 Championship play-off 1st legs 29 have been unders so obviously not that many.

Is the 7 out of 8 significant ie due to a change of tactics/strategy in these games?I am inclined to believe that idea is worth betting on due,as I said,to the fact that bookies know that many punters dont like betting on unders..
 
For Wednesday's L2 game I've taken Crewe +0.5 at 10/11 with Uncle Vic. Southend were apparently awful in the first leg and I'm hoping their hit and miss form over the season's last quarter carries over into this game. Southend are also reporting an injury crisis, although I can't find many names mentioned.

Crewe are on form; no defeats in something like 18 or 19.

The bottom line is that I don't give the hosts an approx 50% chance of winning, and that if the game is tight I can cover in play.

Edit - Crewe a goal up and Southend 4/1 so I've had some.
 
Well done TC.
It wasn't a bad game tonight, Crewe deserved the win but they didn't half make it hard for themselves towards the end of the game.
 
I was going to leave tonight's game alone as the bookies' prices agree with mine, but with news that Renee Howe will miss out for Torquay I've been tempted by a couple of units on Cheltenham DNB at the general 13/8. Torquay were apparently very blunt up front after Howe was forced off in the first leg, and their recent form is bad - six without a win.

Chelteham have three wins on the bounce and I think there's a small bit of value in discounting the draw. I assume Torquay will have to go at them and in McGlashen (who I saw a lot as he played for Aldershot until the January window) Cheltenham have a pacy winger who is capable of causing anyone at this level problems on the break.
 
Hmmm,youre obviously well-informed about this league TC,but when I see a post like that,the first thing I do is look at the correct score betting on betfair.

I cant help thinking that the 0-1,1-2 and 0-2 might be even better value if your assessment is correct.
Of course the draw would then be a loser..but you can cover 1-1 and 0-0.
 
I guess you're right hotspur but my few attempts to do that sort of thing have blown up in my face and resulted in losses I'd otrherwise have won. Maybe I haven't done it often enough for returns to even themselves out.
 
I know what you mean.
I must admit that when it comes to non antepost betting,I have a somewhat modest target so far as seasonal profit is concerned.
But half of my target I attempt to get through correct score betting,40%through betting in running and a maximum 10% through results.
This season I have found that betting in running(including watching the pundits on skysport on Saturdays) has been the most successful method(regardless of my performance) and so I may concentrate on this next season.(only a small bank is needed).
 
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