Npower League Two 20-21st Aug 2011

[slick]

Saturday 20th August 2011
15:00 AFC Wimbledon 1.80 Draw 3.50 Hereford 4.50
15:00 Bradford 2.20 Draw 3.30 Dagenham 3.30
15:00 Gillingham 1.73 Draw 3.50 Plymouth 5.00
15:00 Macclesfield 3.00 Draw 3.40 Bristol Rov 2.30
15:00 Morecambe 2.40 Draw 3.40 Aldershot Town 2.75
15:00 Northampton 1.80 Draw 3.50 Cheltenham 4.50
15:00 Port Vale 2.00 Draw 3.40 Acc. Stanley 3.75
15:00 Rotherham 1.73 Draw 3.75 Barnet 4.50
15:00 Shrewsbury 1.80 Draw 3.50 Crewe 4.50
15:00 Southend 1.83 Draw 3.50 Burton Albion 4.33
15:00 Torquay 2.87 Draw 3.40 Crawley Town 2.30
Sunday 21st August 2011
13:00 Swindon 2.05 Draw 3.40 Oxford 3.50

Odds Skybet

 

[ThunderCelt]

I lumped a few units on Wimbledon at 10/11 immediately after Tuesday's games as I thought they'd come in, and I was right. Wimbledon have only dropped points to a strong Bristol Roves side, while Hereford are pointless and have a minor injury crisis. However, the Bulls have got Simon Clist in on loan, and are apparently trying hard to sign a keeper as well. Their first choice is injured and 38-year-old Russell Hoult had a nightmare on Tuesday - arguably responsible for all four goals despite some decent saves early on. Sadly I think the value on Wimbledon has nearly gone.

I was perhaps a bit over-enthusiastic and also lumped on Gillingham, but perhaps that wasn't such a good idea in terms of value.

 

[ThunderCelt]

I'm going to have a go on Aldershot/Draw at the general 4/7. That gives us a 64% chance of avoiding defeat; I'd put it slightly nearer 70%.

Morecambe have six points from nine, but all their games have been against sides likely to finish in the bottom half, and their win at Hereford doesn't look as clever as it did before Macclesfield won 4-0 there.

Aldershot have only three points, despite outplaying Bradford, Northampton and Torquay. While our lack of a prolific goalscorer is a concern as both a punter and a fan, there will come a time when our luck changes and a chance or two of the lots we're creating will go in. Against (on paper) possibly the weakest side we've faced so far, I'm happy to take the chance that we'll break our two-game barren spell tomorrow.

 

[Punter]

I've got no bet in here this weekend Thunder'

If i could still get the 10/11 you got for Wimbledon i would of joined you, smart thinking to take the bet straight after Tuesdays results.

I might change my mind about a bet on Sunday though, i see there's been a bit of banter going about between Swindon and Oxford, any thoughts on that one?

 

[ThunderCelt]

I'm going to wait until Sunday for team news. Swindon are having trouble scoring and the season ticket holder here in the office (I live in Swindon) reckon they desperately need a big striker. They've just bought Leon Clarke from QPR who will be different, if not prolific, and I'm told he'll likely start on the bench (due to lack of match fitness, perhaps?).

Oxford have had the tougher start on paper, and might be given confidence with a win over a decent Shrewsbury side. Some Swindon fans broke into Oxford's stadium and burned 'STFC' onto their pitch which apparently hasn't gone down particularly well and might fire the away side up a bit. Oxford started off the season with a few injuries and I'll want to check how near they are to putting out a first XI. Their fans reckon Leven will be a key player but apparently he hasn't looked match fit yet in his sub appearances.

With two sides who haven't started as well as they'd have hoped and with this being a derby my take is that both would be happy not to lose, but I think Oxford look very fractionally overpriced as well. I'm thinking of very, very small stakes on the draw or X2.

Speaking to fans you can feel there is an 'edge' to this one, yet the police are happy to open a pub down the road from the ground to away fans from 9am. My main tip is to keep out of Swindon Town Centre on Sunday.

 

[ThunderCelt]

May be worth checking the teams for Shrewsbury. Apparently the Shrews are considering wholesale changes following a poor start to the season (Source SkySports). This might mean a start for some fringe players which the bookies haven't taken into account. Crewe have conceded at leaast two goals in each of their competative games trihs season, and if he starts someone like Terry Gornell (one in three sub appearences) would look attractive to me at a shade under 2/1 - he was with Accrington last year and his goals at home were one of the reasons Stanley did so well.

Edit to add Crewe may still be wothout rated defender Matt Tootle.