Npower League Two Betting 22nd September

[slick]

English League 2
22 Sep 15:00 UK Accrington v Aldershot 2.30 3.30 2.87
22 Sep 15:00 UK Barnet v Rotherham 4.00 3.60 1.80
22 Sep 15:00 UK Bristol Rovers v Fleetwood 2.87 3.30 2.30
22 Sep 15:00 UK Morecambe v Plymouth 2.25 3.30 3.00
22 Sep 15:00 UK Northampton v Chesterfield 2.30 3.30 2.87
22 Sep 15:00 UK Oxford v Bradford 2.20 3.30 3.10
22 Sep 15:00 UK Port Vale v Gillingham 2.50 3.20 2.70
22 Sep 15:00 UK Rochdale v Dag & Red 1.95 3.40 3.60
22 Sep 15:00 UK Southend v Exeter 2.10 3.30 3.30
22 Sep 15:00 UK Torquay v Burton 1.80 3.60 4.00
22 Sep 15:00 UK Wycombe v Wimbledon 1.80 3.60 4.00
22 Sep 15:00 UK York v Cheltenham 2.20 3.40 3.00

Odds William Hill

 

[Punter]

That Bradford price looks a bit big away at Oxford @ 11/5
Oxford have lost their last 4, conceding 13 in the process. Bradford have won two and drawn one since taking a thumping at Rotherham. Tempting but i'll hold fire and look again later, Corals draw no bet price is 6/4!

 

[ThunderCelt]

I'm with Punter on Bradford, although I only got 21/10. Oxford have more first teamers out and lack of form, but Bradford look like relying on a reserve 'keeper (which I didn't know until placing the bet)

I've also backed Cheltenham to win at York at the same price and same four unit stakes. I have Cheltenham as slightly stronger overall but York of course have home advantage and I'm happy with anyting above 2/1. If Shaun Harrad starts I'll also have a couple of units on him at the best available 15/8. He's got a record of just under a goal every two career games in L2 and five already this season, and I think 7/4 or longer is okay against a side who have conceded thirteen in seven and yet to keep a clean sheet.

 

[ThunderCelt]

Gillingham are reporting an injury crisis, which might be a factor in hotspur's thoughts about whetrher to back Port Vale antepost before or after the game. In terms of the match, Vale have come in accordingly so I'll keep my paws off.

 

[hotspur]

hmmm,in my experience whenever a team reports an "injury crisis" it usually pays to bet on them...but then Port Vales wingers are capable of running riot against a weakened defence.......

Dammit,sometimes you can have too much information...

If Port VALE were to score 4 or 5 again against the leaders then its possible the bookies will cut them to 6s expecting a significant amount of money to be heaped on them....

So anyway...youve talked me into putting an extra 0.5 points on them TC..



but I will be on 0-1 and 0-2 on betfair

 

[rcgills]

Think the word "crisis" might be pushing it a bit, unless you've seen something I've not seen. As far as I know we've got Lee, Payne and Weston missing (plus Dack suspended, but he's only a youngster just breaking through into the first team). And none of those are defenders, so no weakened defence, Hotspur.

The team would certainly be stronger with them in it, but the only one that's started regularly this season is Lee. Payne has only made 4 starts this season, and we've been getting by OK without him so far. Weston is extremely quick and has tended to be used more as an impact sub, either on the wing or up front. He's only made 3 starts this season.

We've got plenty of strength in depth though, and plenty of replacements. Would expect our midfield to be Charlie Allen (played a part in every game this season), Whelpdale (one of our best players), David Wright (very experienced, joined on loan from Palace a couple of weeks ago) and probably one of Montrose (tends to divide opinion, but was a first team regular last season) or Danny Jackman (last season's player of the year, think he's had some injury problems, although some people also seem to think he may have fallen out of favour with Martin Allen for some reason).

We've just made what appears to be a pretty promising signing too, with Robbie Findlay coming in from Forest on a month's loan. Apparently an extremely quick striker, but prone to missing sitters and in need of a confidence boost, he played in 3 of the USA's 4 games at the last World Cup. Not sure how he's ended up in League 2, but sounds like he may well be able to fill in for Weston.

Having said all that, I have backed Port Vale Just a case of seeking a bit of compensation in the event we don't get a result though really.

 

[hotspur]

Thanks for that update rcgills.So,can Gills win the league?Or are they in a false position due to having had easier games?

they were tipped to do well preseason but the odd periodical...

 

[hotspur]

The Oxford Bradford game is the kind of game I like to do correct scores ie 0-1 ,1-2 0-2 with savers on 1-3 and 0-3...

but now I read that Bradford have their reserve goalie playing!

and apparently this might have meant TC not betting ...

er...so Ill have 2-3 as well....and 2-2

1-1 it is then!

 

[ThunderCelt]

Thanks for correcting my enthusiasm rcgills.

Elsewhere, 4 pts on Rochdale at the best available evens. This was 11/10 last night, but after a bit of pondering I reckon there's still a touch of value in the price. Dagenham ain't won yet, and Rochdale have won three out of four as they climb the table, including an impressive win at Rotherham on Tuesday.

 

[ThunderCelt]

Upped my investment in Rochdale to 5 units.

Elsewhere, 4 units on unders at Morecambe at 10/11. Plymouth's away games have only totalled three goals. Morecambe are generally an overs side, but mainly because they've been good at conceding rather than scoring. With Plymouth's less than overpowering attack that's less likely, I think.

 

[ThunderCelt]

Awful day for me with only one from five coming in.

 

[rcgills]

Thanks for that update rcgills.So,can Gills win the league?Or are they in a false position due to having had easier games?

Don't think it was a false position, you can only beat what's in front of you. I know we've played a lot of the bottom sides, but then we've also played two of the theoretically stronger sides in the division in Bradford and Southend (who we beat despite playing 45 mins with 10 men), and two of the sides relegated from League One last season (Wycome and Chesterfield).

Can we win the league? I don't really know enough about any of our rivals to know how we compare to them. Have only seen one of the games myself (Bradford on the opening day), but from everything I've read it seems it's not just the results that are going away, we're actually putting in decent performances too. Plenty of people on the forums saying that for the first time in years, they're actually enjoying watching our games.

Reading a Port Vale forum this evening (yeah, I know how to live on a Saturday evening ), they seemed impressed with us today. Said we were well-organised, had clearly done our homework, both in terms of knowing how to stop their danger players, and in terms of causing them problems - apparently their centre backs are fine against big strong forwards, but vulnerable to pace, so Martin Allen dropped top-scorer Danny Kedwell (big, strong but no pace) for the pacy Robbie Findlay.

Worth noting the strength in depth we seem to have, and how willing Martin Allen is to rotate the players, and adopt a horses for courses approach. Don't know how any of the other top sides compare in this respect, but while Port Vale have named the same starting 11 for every single league game so far this season (and I guess you could argue that it's good to have a steady, settled side like that), only 3 Gillingham players have started every league game (Nelson (keeper), Fish and Martin (the two full backs)). In fact, those two full-back positions are probably the biggest concern in terms of squad strength. We've got players that can fill in there - apparently, Charlie Lee looked the best right-back in the squad last season when he played there, but he's wasted in that position, while Jack Payne can also play right-back and Danny Jackman left-back, but they're also far better used in midfield.

Anyway, what this all means in terms of whether or not to back the Gills for the league, I don't know, just some vague ramblings that may or may not be useful to you.

 

[hotspur]

Its very useful(not to mention time-saving) for me so thanks very much rcgills-wait a minute,rcgills.Hadnt realised the gills significance.Whats the rc stand for,Roman Catholic ? ) .

Ive been betting on promotion mostly as,in theory,this is by far the hardest league to call.(League Winnerwise I mean)

i mentioned the easy games cos I noticed a while back that they had "just about as easy a run of games as anyone in any league, coming up" as I told.um,everyone who knows me.

Trouble is, though I had a bit of a bet on them, I didnt know they were gonna go and practically win ALL of them!!


Now their price is too bloody low-4-1 to win league 2 at this stage? hmmm.

On the other hand,Rotherham are propping up the market due to all the money riding on them...and apart from Fleetwood its hard to see anyone else from challenging(assuming Port Vale have injuries etc).

I think on balance it may be better to bet say Southend or Bradford for promotion instead....and hope Gills lose a game or two....

anyway thanks once again

 

[rcgills]

Hadnt realised the gills significance.Whats the rc stand for,Roman Catholic ? ) .

No But I can be a right arsey cunt when I want to be, as you probably know

On the other hand,Rotherham are propping up the market due to all the money riding on them...and apart from Fleetwood its hard to see anyone else from challenging(assuming Port Vale have injuries etc).

I think on balance it may be better to bet say Southend or Bradford for promotion instead....and hope Gills lose a game or two....

Don't really share everyone's love for Fleetwood personally, although I confess to not really knowing much about them apart from their reputation.

Thought Bradford looked a decent side when they played us, think they're still a decent shout for promotion. We won 3-1, but I think the 2 goal margin maybe slightly flattered us. We shaded the first half (and were 1-0 up at HT), went 2 up with a penalty early in the second half, and then Bradford had a spell of 25 minutes or so where they definitely had us on the back foot. Pulled one back with a penalty, and went close a couple of times after that. Think there were two big differences at that point though that tipped the game back in our favour - 1) it was a very hot day, and Bradford seemed to tire, Gills not so much (Martin Allen very keen on making sure the players are fit, he brought in a fitness coach with him when he joined), and 2) Myles Weston (on as a sub for the last 30 mins or so) caused them all kinds of problems with his pace on the break (he scored one, and from what I remember I think he should've scored another and also set up another great chance).

 

[rcgills]

Nothing to do with anyone's promotion chances, but it made me laugh - we've just won a top-of-the-table clash and gone 6 pts clear at the top. Who do we send out to the press conference? Martin Allen? No. His assistant? No. One of the players? No.

The kitman

 

[ONEDUNME]

No But I can be a right arsey cunt when I want to be, as you probably know



.

Squoooze me but isn't that my joke?

Never mind, feel free to use it anyway

 

[hotspur]

btw,rcgills,its not so much a liking for Fleetwood per se,I believe, rather the fact that teams with less money than Fleetwood have come up from the Conference and done very well in recent years thus the belief is that any team that gets a lot of points in the Conference and has some money is almost nailed on for the play-offs at least in League 2.

(Er,thats certainly my belief,I must confess)

Of course I realise you will be aware of this-just explaining the "liking" of Fleetwood

 

[rcgills]

No But I can be a right arsey cunt when I want to be, as you probably know

© Onedunme