Npower League Two betting 24th September

[slick]

Saturday 24th September 2011
15:00 Aldershot Town 7/4 Draw 12/5 Crawley Town 11
15:00 Bradford 13/10 Draw 12/5 AFC Wimbledon 15/8
15:00 Cheltenham 8/11 Draw 13/5 Hereford 100/30
15:00 Crewe 6/5 Draw 12/5 Port Vale 2/1
15:00 Gillingham 10/11 Draw 12/5 Burton Albion 11/4
15:00 Morecambe 11/10 Draw 23/10 Bristol Rovers 9/4
15:00 Northampton evens Draw 12/5 Dagenham & Redbridge 12/5
15:00 Oxford 8/11 Draw 13/5 Accrington Stanley 100/30
15:00 Plymouth 15/8 Draw 12/5 Macclesfield 5/4
15:00 Rotherham 10/11 Draw 12/5 Southend 13/5
15:00 Shrewsbury 10/11 Draw 12/5 Torquay 13/5
15:00 Swindon 4/7 Draw 11/4 Barnet 9/2

Odds Skybet

 

[ThunderCelt]

I can't see anything obvious. Dagenham may be a little long, as may one or two of the away outsiders, but there's nowt that immediately catches my eye in the 1X2 market unless team news throws anything up.

I like the look of overs at Crewe, but the bookies agree and have priced this very short. Unders at Northampton looks my most likely pick at the moment - I disagree with the bookies who are offering the bet at longer than evens for reasons I can't work out - unless both sides are missing key defenders or summat

 

[ThunderCelt]

Might be worth looking out for team news from Barnet - TeamTalk suggests they might welcome back some important players for the game at Swindon. Swindon are still stuttering to some extent, but would still be clear favourites. Bet365's 13/10 for Barnet +0.5 might end up being value, if not a likely winner, and Barnet's odds are shown as drifting by Oddschecker.

 

[Pete89]

I don't know what it is about league two, but I always end up with a good few picks from it on the ratings:

Back Hereford at 4.4+ (5.0)
Back Crewe at 2.35+ (2.75)
Lay Oxford under 2.01 (1.93)
Back Plymouth at 2.65+ (3.1)
Back Southend at 3.8+ (4.33)
Back Torquay at 4.15+ (4.33)

Just as a side note, Unders at Crewe might also be a spot of value, I make it a favourite (but my calculations might not be right...)

 

[ThunderCelt]

I'm still having trouble finding anything; so far only Northampton/Dagenham under 2.5 at evens. The Cobblers have begun to find their scoring boots recently, but may fail to break down a Daggers side who are out of form results-wise, but who were apparently improved in losing to a very good Morecambe team last week.

I agree with Pete that Torquay may be worth backing at anything over about 3/1 (16 or 17/5 in a couple of places now) and I'm going to wait overnight to see if they lengthen any more. Shrewsbury are obviously above the visitors in the table but haven't really been tested at home, while Torquay have had good results at Bristol Rovers and Aldershot

Team news marginally favours Torquay.

 

[Punter]

I've chanced Bristol Rovers at leaders Morecambe, just a hunch is all i can give you as a reason really. I do think maybe the teams are in slightly false positions though (Rovers will finish above Morecambe imo) and there maybe a bit of value in the away if that is the case.

 

[swooperman]

What about your lot TC? The RFO fancy 'em

 

[ThunderCelt]

What about your lot TC? The RFO fancy 'em

I wouldn't put anyone off us, but it's not for me this weekend. On form we're the side to back and the price looks generous. But on paper Crawley are a lot better (not only than us but than nearly everyone else) so I doubt their dip in form will last long. Also there's a lot of bad feeling from us toward Crawley, mainly to do with their manager. It's also a sort of derby so the atmosphere will probably be a bit spicy.

But fantastic luck to anyone who backs the Shots

 

[ThunderCelt]

...on the other hand, Aldershot have lengthened to over 2/1 this morning which I think is more realistic. I've taken Bet365's Shots/draw at 13/20. I still have Crawley down as favourites, but I think the value has switched to us now

Also taken Torquay +0.25 at 13/10

Everything I've taken this week in L2 is small stakes as the bookies' prices are about the same as mine and we don't have any obvious disagreements

 

[Topdog]

Good Lucky

I fancy Dag & Red to cause an upset and beat Northampton @ 3.25 [Skybet]

Lost 2-1

 

[ThunderCelt]

Zero from three for me; at least my big Scottish bet kept today's losses small - and I'd still have returned a slight profit on the day if Dagenham hadn't managed a pointless last minute consolation

Some more nice shouts by Pete?

 

[ThunderCelt]

One consolation for Aldershot losing yesterday (okay, Man Utd in the League Cup is another consolation ) is that Crawley's goal was clearly scored by Tyrone Barnett, although at first sight it looked to be a cross that went straight in and that's how the Shots' live web blog reported it at the time and how the BBC and others still have it (I wasn't there but saw it on the FL show). The FL show shows clearly that Barnett got a touch, and Crawley are crediting him with the goal.

I assume the bookies' prices for Barnett as top scorer are without this one which will be given to him later, and in a market where it looks as if evey goal will count he might be slightly undervalued. (I'm already on him each way which is why at least losing to him is a consolation!)