Rugby Union Six Nations 2014

[traeth]

the odds
Wales 3.25
England 3.5
France 3.75
Ireland 7.5
Scotland 41
Italy 201

Wales should win but that price is not value with us playing England away


the fixtures

Saturday 1st February
Wales v Italy 14:30
France v England 17:00
Sunday 2nd February
Ireland v Scotland 15:00

Saturday 8th February
Ireland v Wales 14:30
Scotland v England 17:00
Sunday 9th February
France v Italy 15:00

Friday 21st February
Wales v France 20:00
Saturday 22nd February
Italy v Scotland 13:30
England v Ireland 16:00

Saturday 8th March
Ireland v Italy 14:30
Scotland v France 17:00
Sunday 9th March
England v Wales 15:00

Saturday 15th March
Italy v England 12:30
Wales v Scotland 14:45
France v Ireland 17:00

 

[traeth]

a preview from the link below with this stat

France. They have always won the title in the year after a Lions tour in the professional era, but a fifth success is unlikely.

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/jan/25/six-nations-2014-wales-england-ireland


the handicap for the first matches from oddschecker

Wales -18.0 (1.91) Draw 19.0 (17) Italy 19.0 (2)
France -3.0 (1.91) Draw 4.0 (17) England 5.0 (1.91)
Ireland -11.0 (1.91) Draw 12.0 (17) Scotland 12.0 (1.91)

 

[Punter]

Are Italy that bad? Is the 200/1 skinny, generous or about right?

 

[traeth]

I would not be backing Italy if they were 1000/1.
They did well to win two games last season. They are poor away and with Scotland improving their chance of a win this season will be remote.
Their forwards are decent but their backs are beatable.

I'm extremely biased when it comes to international rugby union and I think the winner between France and England on the opening day will be the side to push Wales.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I didn't even know this was starting. Where's the fucking hype?

What TV channels will it be shown on mate? Split between BBC and Sky?

 

[traeth]

I didn't even know this was starting. Where's the fucking hype?

What TV channels will it be shown on mate? Split between BBC and Sky?

We've had constant reminders from the BBC Wales , even telling us which songs to sing [ they have been showing the words for Calon Lan ]... really dumbing down, it called the "spangly cowboy hat brigade" here.
All three matches this weekend are on the beeb so I'm assuming all the matches will be shown

 

[ONEDUNME]

Excellent. Thanks traeth.

I'm not the biggest rugby fan (highlight for me is watching them sing the Welsh national anthem. Makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up so fuck knows what it does for you lot) but ill try to catch some of it.

I can't sit and watch teams pasting teams by 20 points - even if its England - but if its a good contest I enjoy watching it.

 

[traeth]

Wales should beat Italy by 20 points but we do tend to be slow starters recently , so if we don't get a decent lead by half time I can see us struggling to get a 12 point lead.

The France v England match should be a lot closer and I can't pick a winner.

France have a few injuries . Their half backs are out and have been replaced with debutant Plisson at outside half who will have Toulouse's Doussain at scrum half, both have played well this year but they have not played together. France lose their influencial Dusautoir to injury.

England have two players making their debut. Nowell and Burrell in the backs. Nowell surprisingly replaces Ashton , Ashton is a poser with his over-dramatic diving when try scoring but I've only seen little of Nowell and I've yet to see him score. They also have another inexperiencd player on the other wing so it could be an area that the French will target.
England have a strong pack but it is an area where the French excel. I prefer to compare the two backrows and even though the French will lose Dusautoir I think theirs is better than Robshaw/Wood/Vunipola.

I'm not backing any side in this match.

 

[Kegman]

I dont follow much rugby but what I do know is that scotland were shit last week and england were a bit unlucky.

question to treeth tareth traeth is how many points do you think england will pump scotland by ? I've asked some of the egg chasers at my work and they are sending out mixed messages. Is 13.5 points a decent shout / realistic at 5/4 ? Or will it be more ? Also what about winning to nil ?

 

[traeth]

Agree with your analysis of Scotland but "England" and "unlucky" being in the same sentence does not sound right to my Celtic ears
England played reasonable and their backs made a few handling mistakes , conceeding that late try would not have happened a couple of years ago.
I think the England-10 @ 10/11 a decent bet.
I would never bet winning to nil in international rugby.
The forecast for the weekend is poor which can be a "leveller" in rugby but I'll be backing England -10

 

[traeth]

The match of the weekend is Ireland v Wales
best odds from oddschecker
Ireland (1.8) Draw (23) Wales (2.25)
even Paddy Power have Wales @ 2.1 , Paddy are usually best priced for the opposition against Ireland
handicap Ireland -2 @ 1.91 Wales -2@ 1.91

taken from this bbc preview
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/26040258

Time was when the Six Nations supporters' rule book was simple:

Rule 1: Nobody likes the England team apart from England fans;
Rule 2: England fans do not care that nobody likes them;
Rule 3: Everybody else loves each other.

That was pretty much it, with one or two caveats buried in the small print.
but now
Rule 4: Ireland and Wales do not get on. To the extent that Saturday's clash in Dublin has been earmarked as the biggest grudge match of this year's tournament, with Wales head coach Warren Gatland and Ireland's favourite son Brian O'Driscoll serving as lightning rods.

 

[Kegman]

Thanks traeth

 

[traeth]

Is 13.5 points a decent shout / realistic at 5/4 ? Or will it be more ? Also what about winning to nil ?

my reply
I think the England-10 @ 10/11 a decent bet.
I would never bet winning to nil in international rugby.

the results from the weekend
France 30 - 10 Italy
Ireland 26 - 3 Wales
Scotland 0 - 20 England

The bet came in but it looks like keg is the rugby tipster for the six nations , well done mate.

Wales were poor but we scored , Scotland were terrible , I can't remember when a side did not score in the six nations.

Two weeks break this time so time to recover. Scotland play in Italy next , it will be worth considering

 

[traeth]

this weekend's matches with Wales playing Friday
the bookies think the three matches will be close and they go with home advantange in each one

handicap prices from betvictor
Wales v France
Wales -3 19/20 Draw Wales -3 16/1 France +3 10/11

Italy v Scotland
Italy -3 5/6 Draw Italy -3 16/1 Scotland +3 1/1

England v Ireland
England -5 19/20 Draw England -5 14/1 Ireland +5 10/11

 

[4PP]

traeth my good man, how are you keeping?

Not around a lot I know but you seem to be getting on just fine without me. Heard Glwad went into meltdown a few weks back but "morale" has improved after a nice collegiate thumping of Frogs ;-)

In Ireland (if I can believe the media) the whole place has gone bonkers what with it being the worlds greatest ever centre last match on his home turf! (If u don't agree you're just a wizened & bitter NZ idiot)
Here in France they just been "mad" which is pretty much how they usually are, particuarilly when they coach or play for the national XV!!

Anyway, whats your view for the WE?

On a mad wildcard bet I've gone with Ireland by 44 (my age), France by 14 (my birthday) & Engurland by 7 (my birth month).

Nowt serious, just a bit of a laff!

Now in "real" money, Ireland by 13+ & -28............France -7...........England-Wales.............undecided.
I think Wales can win if they play the 'ref right but the head(if not the heart) says a home win.
Most likely a Wales alt +cap for now.
I think what happens on Saturday will be important for both teams (E&W)

Logic says the Rose but I'll call it on Sunday

Look after yourself folks, I really shouild check in more often, its not a bad spot.

Slan

 

[traeth]

hi snods,

we did not see the defeat to Ireland coming but we were totally outplayed and out-thought by Ireland.
the Irish defeat to England was another suprise for me
it looks like the championship will be decided in Paris next week

this weekend
I think that Italy aren't a bad side and I cannot see Ireland overcoming the 24 point handicap.
BOD last tryscorer @ 10 is the bet in this game

France to beat the handicap against a poor Scotland side

I can't see Wales losing tomorrow , playing at Twickers can be difficult but I don't think that England are a good side , the media are so upbeat towards England because of that try against Ireland . A type of try that Ireland are usually so good at defending.
A Wales win is 6/4 now but I regret not taking the 2/1 that was available with betfred early in the week.

these are the caps from betvic

14:30 Ireland v Italy
Ireland -24 2 Draw Ireland -24 17 Italy +24 2

17:00 Scotland v France
Scotland +7 2 Draw Scotland +7 17 France -7 2

15:00 England v Wales
England -4 2 Draw England -4 17 Wales +4 2

 

[traeth]

I had a terrible rugby weekend , from a betting angle and losing to England

This weekend handicaps.
Sat 15 Mar
12:30 Italy v England
Italy +22 2 Draw Italy +22 17 England -22 1.833
14:45 Wales v Scotland
Wales -14 1.909 Draw Wales -14 15 Scotland +14 1.909
17:00 France v Ireland
France +1 1.909 Draw France +1 17 Ireland -1 1.909

The championship is Ireland's to lose. They must win in Paris , England need France to win and an England win in Rome. France can win but need a very large winning margin