Spain 7-12 April

[rcgills]

Couple of prices look too big in the Spanish second division this afternoon:

Villarreal B tb Elche @ 3.1 (Bet365)

Elche in rotten form, having at one stage been well in contention for promotion, they've now slipped to 8th and 5 points off the play-offs. They've lost 8 of the last 12, including defeats to 3 of the bottom 6.

Villarreal B 3 places and 6pts above relegation zone, but are in decent form, 4 wins and a draw from last 6 games, only defeat in that run was last week away to 2nd placed Celta.

Recreativo v Guadalajara @ 6.0 (Bet365)

Admittedly Guadalajara are in poor form, but Recreativo are no world beaters, the price on Guadalajara is far too big.

While it's true that Guadalajara have taken just 7pts from their last 14 games, in their slight defence is the fact that they've played 9 of the 11 sides in the top half of the table in that run. Away from home in that run there's probably only one result that could be considered very disappointing, losing at 17th placed Huesca. Apart from that they've lost to the sides 2nd, 4th, 6th and 10th, drawn with the side in 15th and beaten the bottom team.

Recreativo's home record of 5-5-6 suggests they're nothing to fear at home, and they've not won in their last 5 games overall. They're also missing a few first teamers, including one player about whom Guadalajara's manager has said he's glad he won't be playing, as he's one of his favourite players in the second division.

Medium stakes on Villarreal, small on Guadalajara.

 

[rcgills]

My reputation obviously goes before me. Guadalajara now out to 7.0, and Villarreal B to 3.2

 

[ONEDUNME]

Isn't it about time for another break?

 

[rcgills]

Don't know, I'll tell you after today's games have finished

 

[rcgills]

Might as well extend this thread to the midweek games.

Carlos Vela looks a little over-priced as anytime scorer for Real Sociedad tomorrow night @ 2.87. He's in very good form, with 5 in his last 6 (including 2 at the weekend), and has scored in 4 of Real's last 5 home games. Real Sociedad pretty prolific at home lately too, 16 goals in their last 6 home games (**edit - that's 16 goals scored, they've also conceded 4 in that time).

 

[rcgills]

Vela opened the scoring last night

Couple of interesting looking bets tonight in Valencia v Rayo

Rayo DNB @ 5
Michu anytime scorer @ 4

Valencia, having looked an absolute shoe-in for 3rd place, suddenly find themselves in a fight for a Champions League spot. They've won just 3 of 14 league games in 2012, and have lost 3 of their last 6 at home, including to struggling Real Sociedad, and throwing away a 1-0 lead at home to 10-men, bottom-of-the-table (at the time) Zaragoza to lose 2-1.They're also without their star striker Soldado, scorer of more than 1/3 of their league goals this season (16 of 46).

Rayo not the kind of team to sit back away from home, their last 8 aways have seen 38 goals (13 scored, 25 conceded), winning three (including a 5-3 at Levante) and losing the other 5. With the form Valencia are in, though, they have to be opposed at that price.

As for Michu, despite being a midfielder, he's joint 7th top scorer in the division with 15 goals in 30 league games, giving him as many goals as their two first choice strikers combined. He's been in exceptional form since the turn of the year, scoring 9 goals in the last 14 (scoring in 7 separate games).

Although I won't be backing him myself, Diego Costa (3.6) is also a good shout for anytime scorer, 7 goals in 10 games for Rayo since joining on loan from Atletico Madrid in January.