Spain betting 30 Sept - 3 October

[rcgills]

Villarreal B v Nastic over 2.5 goals @ 2.1 (Bet365) 2pts

Two very contrasting records here - Villarreal B at home have scored 6 and conceded 7 in just 2 games, while Nastic's 2 away games have both finished 0-0, which is strange bearing in mind that at home they've shipped 9 goals in 3 games.

Can't turn down odds against here on the overs given the way Villarreal B's games have gone so far, if they get an early breakthrough to prevent the risk of Nastic playing for another 0-0 then Villarreal B are more than capable of bringing in the overs by themselves.

And one so far for tomorrow:

Barcelona B v Sabadell over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 (Stan James) 6pts

Two sides that love to attack, but struggle to defend. Barcelona B averaging 3.6 goals a game so far this season (9-9), and Sabadell averaging 4 a game (11-9). Both sides have gone overs in 4 of their 5 games this season.

 

[rcgills]

Huesca v Cordoba @ 3.5 (Bet365) 3pts

Have been impressed with what I've seen of Cordoba so far this season. They had a tough couple of opening games (home to relegated Almeria (1-1) and away to last year's play-off semi-finalists Valladolid (lost 2-0), but since then they've won 3 in a row, lifting them to 6th in the table. They've also got one of the division's best strikers in Charles, who scored 15 last season and already has 3 in 5 games this season.

As predicted on here, Huesca got their first win of the season last week away to a very poor Nastic side, and I think that result can be put down as much to the poor level of their opponents as it can to how well they played. Prior to that they'd lost 3 (admittedly all to sides that are up around the top, although I think you could argue it's a surprise that they're all doing so well, especially Sabadell and Guadalajara who are just up from Segunda B), and drew 3-3 at home to another newly-promoted side, Alcoyano.

No major team news, 1 first teamer missing on both sides.

At this price, given the respective form of the two sides, Cordoba look a decent shout.

 

[Radoslav]

I will follow your Barcelona B heavy bet my friend... Best of luck !

 

[rcgills]

So far this season, just 3 of the 37 bets I've posted have been shorter than evens. They've all lost Still, Cordoba did the business to ensure a profit for the day.

Only one that really grabs my attention for tomorrow.

Valladolid v Elche (DNB) @ 3 (Bet365) 2pts

Can't really see how the bookies have Valladolid as odds-on favourites here. Favourites yes, but not such a short price. Two of the top teams in the division (both lost out on promotion in the playoffs last season), and both got off to a good start this season before slipping back a bit in the last couple of weeks. Valladolid won their first 2, but have then taken just 2pts from their last 3 games, and lost their lost home game to Murcia. Elche won their first 3, but have since lost the last 2.

Two fairly evenly matched sides in my opinion, and as such a price of 2/1 DNB on the visitors looks too good to turn down.

 

[rcgills]

One last bet for this evening:

Celta to score 2 or more v Numancia @ 2.85 (Sporting Odds) 2pts

Fancy Celta to win this one, but this price is marginally better than the price on Celta to win. Celta haven't yet kept a clean sheet so far this season, so I suspect they may need to get 2 if they're to win this one. This bet has the added advantage of also covering the possibility of a high-scoring draw (or a high-scoring defeat).

Numancia have 4pts from 2 home games so far this season, but they've played 2 struggling sides in Girona and Nastic, so I'm not reading too much into their home record for now. Celta started off well with 2 wins, but have since taken just 1pt from their last 3. However, they've had some tough opponents (Elche, Almeria and Valladolid), and although they've disappointed to some extent in those games, they were at least against strong opponents. They've already managed 3 away to Murcia and 2 away to Recreativo this season.

I consider Celta to be a much stronger side than Numancia, and as such I'm going to take them to hopefully get back to winning ways here.

 

[rcgills]

Helped by an apparently stupid sending off for one of the Numancia players in conceding a penalty, but Celta end up winning comfortably enough 2-0.

 

[rcgills]

Xerez v Girona over 3 goals @ 3.0 (Bet365) 2pts

Xerez haven't really started firing yet, their home form in particular is letting them down (lost to Guadalajara, drew with Nastic, 0 goals scored in those two games), although they're playing well enough and picking up points away from home. They're struggling to create chances, though, and Marca's preview suggests they're considering switching from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-3 in an attempt to create more. They've got a decent striker too if they do manage to create chances for him - José Mari scored 17 in 33 games last year, and already has 3 in 5 this season.

Based on the evidence to date, Girona's defence should certainly give them a few chances. They've conceded 10 so far in 5 games, and they're not struggling for goals themselves either, with 8 scored.

For what it's worth, past meetings between the two sides have tended to produce goals (although only two of them were recent) - of their five meetings in Xerez, four of them have produced 4 goals and the other one produced 3.

 

[rcgills]

Not quite sure how with some of the chances both sides were missing, but ends up only 2-1, so just a push on that one.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Not quite sure how with some of the chances both sides were missing, but ends up only 2-1, so just a push on that one.

Not for the first time RC you've lost me. Isn't a push where u get ur cash back? Wasn't that a straight overs bet?

 

[rcgills]

Sorry mate, perhaps should've made it a bit clearer, that was on the Asian goals line. The bet was over 3, not over 3.5, so with exactly 3 goals scored it was a push.