Welsh Cup 4th round 26th Jan

[traeth]

these odds from paddies
Welsh Cup round 4
Chepstow v Haverfordwest 4.00 3.75 1.66
Barry v Pontardawe 2.20 3.50 2.75
Carmarthen v Bala Town 2.37 3.40 2.60
Flint Town v Caerau Ely 1.36 4.50 6.50
Connahs Quay v Bangor 3.10 3.50 2.00
Newtown v Airbus 3.60 3.60 1.83
Prestatyn Town v West End 1.36 4.50 6.50
The New Saints v Rhyl 1.30 4.50 7.00

 

[traeth]

Poor weather may play a part , Connah's Quay have asked for volunteers to help clear their pitch and I expect it to be on.
Connah's Quay recent form has been poor but so has Bangor.
Bangor has a great recent history in this cup and will be all out to win this one. I think Bangor will win this one but they have let me down in the last few few weeks so I'm having second thoughts.
There are three all Welsh Prem fixtures , I can't pick a winner in the Carmarthen v Bala Town but I expect Airbus to win at Newtown.
The second tier in Wales are split into two with North and South , I have little knowledge of the Southern clubs in the second tier
TNS play Rhyl , who are unbeaten this season and look destined for promotion back into the Welsh Prem , their fans will easily outnumber the meagre fans of TNS, in the last round they beat WPL side Aber 5-2. If TNS are not on their form Rhyl have the ability to produce a surprise here.
Caerau are a third tier club so they will looking forward to their trip up North whilst Chepstow are a four tier club against second tier Haverfordwest , who have promotion aspirations this season.

 

[pg_yid]

I have little knowledge of the lower leagues either but the prices for Flint and Haverfordwest look quite tempting, unless maybe there is not much difference of standard between tiers 2-4. Flint are a decent side at tier 2 (North) level, and I'm pretty sure the standard of football in tier 2 North is a fair bit higher than tier 2 south, whilst Caerau were really poor last year, finishing bottom by a long distance to get relegated to tier 3, where they are now also near the bottom. They also haven't played any games in a while due to postponements, although Flint haven't played that many either, they have still played 6 more league games overall. Meanwhile, 1.67 looks a decent price for an ex-WPL side who are challenging for promotion against a mid-table tier 4 side. Could be worth a cheeky double, whilst my knowledge of these leagues is poor, I think the bookies probably know even less; these are some of the more obscure U.K. games they will ever cover.

 

[pg_yid]

In the end I went for over 3.5 in Prestatyn-West End. Only 1.75 (with Bwin) but then again it must be considered we have the incredibly overish Prestatyn (with two class forwards and dangerous midfielders) playing against a mid-table side from Welsh Division One. Prestatyn were appalling defensively in their last game, and seem to have a couple of injuries in defensive positions according to their manager. They were weak from set pieces, so I wouldn't be surprised if West End nicked a goal that way. They will be looking to bounce back from that defeat and against a much weaker team (who are also overish) they should do so, especially since West End haven't played a game since the start of December due to postponements. I expect Prestatyn to be fitter and more motivated, and they should win this relatively comfortably in a high scoring game.

I also like over 3.5 in the Chepstow Town-Haverfordwest game. Evens with Bwin, seems a big price. Again there is a big quality difference, plus both sides are overish with Chepstow games having averaged more than four goals per game and the same figure for Haverfordwest being 3.85. The cup is usually good for goals as well, I think we'll see a few here.

 

[pg_yid]

I also fancy Rhyl on the AH against TNS when the prices become available. TNS are the better side but Rhyl are no mugs and will be hugely motivated for this game. 1.36 looks a bit too skinny for TNS, especially considering their home record having had a few hiccups against weaker sides so far this season. It will be interesting to see what the prices are and then maybe have a bet. It seems like Bet365 will have this market but haven't priced it up yet, if you look at their website.

 

[traeth]

hi pg , I was thinking along the same lines as you with regard to Haverfordwest and Flint , not so sure about Prestatyn , but you're the expert on making money on that bet

this is the latest re postponed matches
TNS P-P Rhyl FC (Snow)
After a further three inches of snow in Oswestry overnight, adding to the existing three inches has made clearing the pitch at Park Hall impossible. The walkways, car-park and roads into the stadium are also treacherous. The match was postponed at 10am. The re-arranged date is TBC.

Connah's Quay v Bangor City (New Kick-Off Time - 3:00pm)
Volunteers have been clearing the pitch since 9am. The match is now a 3:00pm kick-off, with the possibility of the match being televised live by S4C.

Newtown P-P Airbus UK (Frozen Pitch)
The pitch failed an inspection at 10:45am due to a severe overnight frost.

 

[pg_yid]

You were right about Prestatyn, the bet let me down for once. Oh well. I'll have to watch the highlights of that one and try to see where I went wrong. At least the other one came in, though I made a small loss overall this weekend due to staking more money on the Prestatyn game. Hopefully when the Rhyl game is rearranged there will be an asian handicap market open.