Welsh Football 11th/12th Jan

[traeth]

Welsh Premier League
11 Jan. 19:30 Connahs Quay v Prestatyn 2.87 3.40 2.05
11 Jan. 19:30 Bala Town v Bangor 3.50 3.50 1.80

12 Jan. 12:00 Aberystwyth v Airbus 3.30 3.40 1.90

Welsh League Cup Final@ Newtown
12 Jan. 15:10 Carmarthen v New Saints 6.00 3.75 1.44

these odds from Ladbrokes

At first glance I like the away wins

 

[pg_yid]

What is this drift about on Prestatyn? They are now 2.45. Any injury news? I did my usual bet on over 3.5 for their game, 2.09 with Betsafe, but I couldn't get my desired stake on- it seems Betsafe have started to restrict my bets rather than change their silly odds (2.09 for over 3.5 in every Prestatyn game regardless of opposition is madness).

 

[pg_yid]

I also have done under 3.5 in the League Cup final @ 1.83 (Bwin). Both teams have gone under 3.5 in their games a lot this season; the stats suggest it should be a shorter price. Also it's a final so could be a cagey game. Both teams are relatively tight defensively and I expect Carmarthen to dig in and play in their usual organised way.

 

[traeth]

league results - I can't pick a winner in this league

11 Jan.
Connahs Quay 3-3 Prestatyn
Bala Town 2-1 Bangor

12 Jan.
Aberystwyth 1-0 Airbus

 

[pg_yid]

The Prestatyn overs came in again but the TNS game didn't go according to the stats at all, I just watched it and it was a very open game, pretty entertaining actually. Well done to Camarthen for an excellent performance against a full time side and a deserved trophy for them.

 

[pg_yid]

league results - I can't pick a winner in this league

11 Jan.
Connahs Quay 3-3 Prestatyn
Bala Town 2-1 Bangor

12 Jan.
Aberystwyth 1-0 Airbus

What I have noticed this season is the weaker teams seem to have caught up, they have been taking points off the top teams, especially at home. I've tried to focus on the goal markets because the results have been unpredictable, but if it wasn't for the upcoming split I might have tried to back these weaker teams at home. Airbus are on a poor run now.

 

[traeth]

I agree with you pg , in the past the top clubs would go away and win at a reasonable price, there was little home advantage for the bottom clubs .
Since last season's split , home advantage seemed to have taken over and I've been slow reacting to it ,which has hammered my bank last year.
Reducing the league to 12 clubs reduced my yield but last year it's gone negative , I'll have to review my Welsh bets this year.