Welsh Premier 14.03.-15.03.

[mijosim]

Thinking to take TNS -2AH. Carmarthen dont have good results in last few matches, but i didnt track their play. On the other hand Saints, after few so so results, crushed Bangor. -1,5 should be graet bet, but i am tempted with -2. Traeth your opinion about this ? P.S. Sorry for not posting odds.

 

[traeth]

oddschecker odds

Friday 14th March 2014

Aberystwyth (1.8)Draw (4.2)Prestatyn (4.33)
Afan Lido (11)Draw (5.5)Port Talbot (1.35)
Bala Town (1.45)Draw (5)Connahs Quay (6)

Saturday 15th March 2014

Airbus (1.4)Draw (5)Newtown (7.5)
TNS (1.25)Draw (7)Carmarthen (10)
Rhyl (2.4)Draw (3.6)Bangor (3.1)

I was considering the same mij , especially after last week's performance from TNS on their plastic
Carmarthen are yet to win since the split [ 3 games ]

TNS -1.75 A.H. @ 1,92 with bet365

 

[mijosim]

Its just question how godd can Carmarthen be. Saints dont need to play big game to win by a couple. They are one level above others.

 

[traeth]

this preview from welshpremier site with match reports and highlights

here http://www.welshpremier.co.uk/news/WPL96072.ink

The New Saints vs. Carmarthen | 14:30 KO
The New Saints have the opportunity of going 6 points clear at the top of the table if they can beat Carmarthen Town at Park Hall. The Saints have put 6 goals passed Carmarthen without conceding any in the process but the second match ended in a goalless draw.

The Saints last six:
W W D W D D (all competitions)
Latest WPL result | Sat 08/03/14 | The New Saints 4-1 Bangor

Old Gold’s last six:
L L L L L W (all competitions)
Latest WPL result | Sat 08/03/14 | Carmarthen Town 1-2 Airbus

Corbett Sports WPL Phase One Encounters:

Sat 28/09/13 | The New Saints 6-0 Carmarthen Town

Tues 14/01/14 | Carmarthen Town 0-0 The New Saints

 

[mijosim]

I am on Saints -2AH ! This is bet which brought huge profit this season. There isnt big reason to take them once again in this handicap. Odds are more than enough for me.

 

[hotspur]

I am on Saints -2AH ! This is bet which brought huge profit this season. There isnt big reason to take them once again in this handicap. Odds are more than enough for me.

I don't doubt that you've made a very good profit doing this bet-and congrats etc.

But Ive been following this thread-well the Welsh Premier thread- with some interest as I was waiting for one of you to wonder whether,instead of betting -2 etc,youd not make more money by betting correct scores.


I do think you MAY have missed a trick by not doing so.(Then again I may be wrong.)

Especially if you can bet the correct scores on betfair and maybe cash out.

 

[slick]

Soz about the avatar Hotspur but it's the only one I had to hand, your original one has been showing a red x for a while and I couldn't source the origin of it.
Feel free to change it or if you're comfortable with it have it on me for free.

 

[traeth]

instead of betting -2 etc,youd not make more money by betting correct scores.


I do think you MAY have missed a trick by not doing so.(Then again I may be wrong.)

Especially if you can bet the correct scores on betfair and maybe cash out.

It could be me but I think that correct scores are "mug bets"

I cannot see how selecting a combination of correct scores can be better than a -2 A.H.
Taking the odds [bet365] from today's game
TNS -2 @ 1.80
If I stake £10 at 2-0 or 3-1 my return is £10 , at 3-0 , 4-0, 5-0, 6-0, 4-1, 5-1 the return is £18
correct score odds and stakes required to give the same returns
2-0 @ 7.5 = £1.33
3-1 @ 11 - £0.91
3-0 @7.5 - £2.40
4-0 @9.5 -£1.89
5-0 @15 -£1.20
6-0 @29 - £0.62
4-1 @15 - £1.20
5-1 @ 23- £0.78
Total stake = £10.33

I've selected those scores as TNS have won by those scores at home this season

 

[mijosim]

I don't doubt that you've made a very good profit doing this bet-and congrats etc.

But Ive been following this thread-well the Welsh Premier thread- with some interest as I was waiting for one of you to wonder whether,instead of betting -2 etc,youd not make more money by betting correct scores.


I do think you MAY have missed a trick by not doing so.(Then again I may be wrong.)

Especially if you can bet the correct scores on betfair and maybe cash out.

Its hard to take correct score in a league where one team can win by 6 or 7 easy. So big range results is possible. So no thanks, will take TNS -2AH and be happy with three goal win, if its possible.

 

[peleus]

"Its hard to take correct score in a league where one team can win by 6 or 7 easy."

I experienced that once, lost a few so I never did it again.

 

[hotspur]

Sorry guys,completely forgot about my post on here and it's only due to the post a few minutes ago that I've noticed it.

To answer all of the comments in order,without really wishing to get into a debate about it you understand,

1) IMHO,correct score betting is NOT a mug bet

2)You can cover all scores where one team scores 4 or more with just one bet on betfair.


3)Like any form of betting you have to have an idea when correct scores are particularly advantageous.ie,in which games.



4) You should not be using correct scores to cover lots of outcomes.Rather you should just use 2 or 3 scores as positions.


Of course,in the case of Welsh football I'm not sure whether you can cash out/bet in running etc or whether there's enough money etc etc but all I can say is I use correct scores as positions in other leagues and ,er,find them effective.


But hey you should do whatever you feel happiest/most confident doing.

 

[hotspur]

It could be me but I think that correct scores are "mug bets"

I cannot see how selecting a combination of correct scores can be better than a -2 A.H.
Taking the odds [bet365] from today's game
TNS -2 @ 1.80
If I stake £10 at 2-0 or 3-1 my return is £10 , at 3-0 , 4-0, 5-0, 6-0, 4-1, 5-1 the return is £18
correct score odds and stakes required to give the same returns
2-0 @ 7.5 = £1.33
3-1 @ 11 - £0.91
3-0 @7.5 - £2.40
4-0 @9.5 -£1.89
5-0 @15 -£1.20
6-0 @29 - £0.62
4-1 @15 - £1.20
5-1 @ 23- £0.78
Total stake = £10.33

I've selected those scores as TNS have won by those scores at home this season

Well,I think I can see why you think correct scores are mug bets if this is how you think I would use them.

Not sure why you've included 2-0 and 3-1.This could be important-are the odds on the -2 on the normal handicap or Asian handicap? I had thought TNS had to win by 3 goals for the bet to win and the bet would lose if it was 2-0.

 

[traeth]

I cannot see how selecting a combination of correct scores can be better than a -2 A.H.

I've selected those scores as TNS have won by those scores at home this season

It is these two sentences that are important as A.H. does mean asian handicap

Only very rarely are correct scores offered by betfair in Welsh football

I still stand by what I say when it regards Welsh football and especially TNS