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Welsh Premier League 13th/14th/15th April

traeth

traeth

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this weekend's odds from Ladbrokes
Friday
Aberystwyth v Airbus 2.20 3.20 2.80

Saturday
Carmarthen v Afan Lido 2.00 3.20 3.20
Llanelli v Prestatyn 1.44 3.40 7.00
Newtown v Port Talbot 2.10 3.20 3.00

Sunday
Bala Town v New Saints 6.00 3.40 1.50
Neath v Bangor 2.25 3.20 2.75
 
my early thoughts

Aberystwyth v Airbus
Aber have improved lately , last three games have been away , so a home improvement is also needed to ensure safety from relegation.
Airbus form has deteriorated lately and if their injury woes continue they will struggle here

Aber win

Carmarthen v Afan Lido
Afan Lido's last win was the 5-1 against Carmarthen on 2nd March .
Carmarthen are in the relegation zone , so this is a game I'll avoid

Llanelli v Prestatyn
Llanelli won their last game at Bala Town and prior to that they had a 1-1 draw at TNS , striker Griffiths has started scoring again .
Prestatyn have lost their last 8 league games and I can't see them breaking that run here.
Llanelli may be worth considering on the A.H.

Newtown v Port Talbot
Newtown still bottom of the league but they won their last two matches , they had an excellent 6-1 win at Afan Lido last week.
Port Talbot have improved lately .
I can't pick a winner here

These two matches could decide who wins the league
Bala Town v New Saints
TNS leading the table and the form team , they could only draw with Llanelli last week . The previous week they easily beat Bala Town 4-0 in the semi of the Welsh Cup.TNS are two points ahead of Bangor who they play at home next week.
I can see a TNS win here but it won't be as easy at Bala Town's ground as the Welsh Cup semi .

Neath v Bangor
Neath have only lost once at home , 1-0 to leaders TNS and they did win 3-1 at Bangor in the first week in March.
A draw will not be good enough for Bangor if TNS win , so this should be a hard fought match.
I'm not sure which way to go here . I'd like to see a Bangor win .
 
ONEDUNME said:
Is the Aber win a definite Traeth?
Click to expand...

I would not use definite when it comes to my tipping mate

Aber have improved since they have a new manager Tomi Morgan , an aber lad
Tomi Morgan was a manager of my club Porthmadog when we got relegated.
I'm not a fan of Tomi's managing ability , Aber have under-achieved this season and had disciplinary problems at the start of the season .[ Having a player sent off in about 9 of the first 10 matches]
Tomi has got better results from the same team
here are their results since they lost at Airbus
Afan Lido 0-2 Aberystwyth 10.04.2012
Port Talbot 2-1 Aberystwyth 06.04.2012
Carmarthen 0-3 Aberystwyth 24.03.2012
Aberystwyth 1-1 Afan Lido 16.03.2012
Newtown 1-1 Aberystwyth 10.03.2012
Airbus 3-2 Aberystwyth 04.03.2012

Airbus are under new management and their performances have deteriorated .
Airbus have had some "injuries"
Their new management have stated that there will be changes next season , perhaps this could affect their attitude and fitness
Two weeks ago they lost 4-1 in the semi of the Welsh Cup to lower tier Cefn
Airbus' results since that win against Aber
Airbus 2-2 Port Talbot 2:2 09.04.2012
Airbus 0-1 Carmarthen 07.04.2012
Airbus 3-1 Newtown 23.03.2012
Port Talbot 2-1 Airbus 18.03.2012
Airbus 1-1 Afan Lido 10.03.2012
Airbus 3-2 Aberystwyth 04.03.2012


Aber have drawn a lot a home this season , Airbus don't do well away, just three wins , twice at bottom side Newtown the other in the first half of the season at Aber

I've had a bet on Aber @ 2.50 with bet365
the Aber DNB is 1.83
 
Erm....gulp. Gullinbursti in the last tomorrow, currently 9/2 fav and Cloudy Lane ew at 8/1 in the 340.

My big tip would be that the horses that ran at Cheltenham will be over-backed (and therefore undervalue) because

a/ The people who backed them with either be chasing losses on them (if they lost) or backing them "with the bookies money" (if they won)

b/ People who have never heard of them before Cheltenham with now have them on their radar.

I'd advise anyone to look at the horses that haven't run at Cheltenham as they are likely to have been laid out especially for this meeting whereas the Cheltenham horses have (mostly) been trained to peak four weeks or so ago. Don't let double figure prices put you off.

The likely exceptions tomorrow are the 2oclock race (Big Bucks at long odds on) and the 305 where all the main contenders ran at Cheltenham. and I also fancy Pearl Swan to defy my own logic in the 230 tomorrow. 5/1 available with paddy power. each way bet at 1/4 odds looks good to me.


Sorry for making a mess in your thread but you did ask:lol
 
Difficult to see any value this week. The only one that tempts me is the Aber one mentioned by traeth, with DNB cover. Then again Airbus seemed to play well against Port Talbot and were unlucky not to win the game. Everyone seems to be beating each other at the bottom at the moment and from what I can tell the bookies seem to have covered the prices quite well. The top is interesting from a football perspective but not so much from a betting perspective. I also hope Bangor win and take the title to the last game of the season. It is a hard game to call though with Neath an erratic and difficult side to predict; lots of talent but unreliable, perhaps not a surprise with their off the field issues.

Am I right in saying that Neath can't qualify for Europe because they failed on the UEFA licence?
 
pg_yid said:
Am I right in saying that Neath can't qualify for Europe because they failed on the UEFA licence?
Click to expand...

I think this is right
All clubs have the right to appeal to a separate and independent Appeals Body, which would sit on Friday April 27th 2012 for a final and binding decision.
Click to expand...

There are rumours that Afan Lido v Aber game on Tuesday was alledgedly rigged, I did not have a bet on this on and did not know anything until after the game
 
Yes I read about those rumours today as well. A shame we missed out on it, if it is true, although on a more serious note that is not good for Welsh football.
 
I'm going to take the bottom two!

Both are at home, you cant knock Newtowns form lately and its more Camarthens away form that has put them in the bottom two.The opponents for both have poor away form and only sit a few places above.

I know i've little knowledge of this league but i just feel it could be one of those weekends in the UK leagues where some teams that are in the relegation places are going to come up trumps in a last bid to try and get out.
 
I like your thinking Punter , Afan Lido are in the league cup final so they could have their minds elsewhere.
There are rumours that their players haven't been paid but that rumour circulated about Neath earlier in the season.
Port Talbot have drawn quite a few recently, four out of last seven league games.
Good luck with your bets
 
Cracking call on Aberystwyth..2-0 FT, I actually had a look at the price on -1.5AH prior to KO for a bit of interest..4.75, glad I didn't take that :lol
 
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