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Welsh Premier League 21st April

traeth

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this weekend's games odds from sporting

Prestatyn v Bala Town 3.40 3.50 1.909
Neath v Llanelli 2.25 3.30 2.80
TNS v Bangor 1.727 3.50 4.20
Port Talbot v Carmarthen 1.65 3.60 4.60
Afan Lido v Airbus 2.30 3.30 2.75
Aberystwyth v Newtown 1.444 4.20 6.00
 
the league table before they play the final league game

1. The New Saints 31 71
2. Bangor 31 69
3. Neath 31 62
4. Llanelli 31 56
5. Bala Town 31 46
6. Prestatyn 31 28

7. Airbus 31 36
8. Port Talbot 31 33
9. Afan Lido 31 32
10. Aberystwyth 31 30
11. Carmarthen 31 29
12. Newtown 31 23

two sides can be relegated
Connah's Quay have won promotion from the North Wales league
Haverfordwest must finish first or second to gain promotion from the South Wales league , they are fourth now.
TNS and Neath have appealed for their licence to remain in the league, the appeal will be heard at the end of the month , only if both appeal fail will Newtown survive.
 
TNS v Bangor
Bangor need to win to become champions. They did beat TNS in the same situation at the end of last season but that match was played at Bangor.
Not many teams win on the plastic at TNS but Bangor fans will outnumber the TNS fans .
The Bangor price is tempting in such a crucial match.
Bangor have played well in their last couple of games but they will have striker Les Davies missing.

Aberystwyth v Newtown
An Aber win will ensure they stay in this league and they are giving free entry on Saturday to boost their backing from their fans. Their recent form has been improving.
Newtown have struggled all season and their end of season improvement was too late.
Newtown are doomed and
 
TNS v Bangor
I've had a think about this game , and I've decided to go for Bangor , I'm also considering the unders for this one, last season's decider was a cautious one after the other three being high scoring , this season TNS have scored three each time they have met.
Under 2.5 @ 2.88 with bet365
Bangor's 4-3 win at TNS in November was shown live on S4C , Bangor never looked like losing the match , they were nervous in the last 5 minutes when TNS came back to 4-3 .

here are their h2h for the last two seasons

Bangor TNS 21:04:2012...this season's decider
Bangor 1-3 TNS 10.03.2012
TNS 3-4 Bangor 13.11.2011
Bangor 0-3 TNS 10.09.2011

2010/2011
Bangor 1-0 TNS 30.04.2011 ...last season's decider
TNS 3-2 Bangor 19.03.2011
TNS 2-2 Bangor 218.01.2011
Bangor 4-3 TNS 02.10.2010


my bet is Bangor
 
Cheers Traeth, i've put them in my Combo bet.

I see it's on SC4, i'll be flicking between that and Soccer Saturday :thumb
 
TNS v Bangor
I've had a think about this game , and I've decided to go for Bangor , I'm also considering the unders for this one, last season's decider was a cautious one after the other three being high scoring , this season TNS have scored three each time they have met.
Under 2.5 @ 2.88 with bet365
Bangor's 4-3 win at TNS in November was shown live on S4C , Bangor never looked like losing the match , they were nervous in the last 5 minutes when TNS came back to 4-3 .

here are their h2h for the last two seasons

Bangor TNS 21:04:2012...this season's decider
Bangor 1-3 TNS 10.03.2012
TNS 3-4 Bangor 13.11.2011
Bangor 0-3 TNS 10.09.2011

2010/2011
Bangor 1-0 TNS 30.04.2011 ...last season's decider
TNS 3-2 Bangor 19.03.2011
TNS 2-2 Bangor 218.01.2011
Bangor 4-3 TNS 02.10.2010


my bet is Bangor

I have followed you on Bangor. Promises to be an exciting encounter, though Les Davies not playing seems to be a blow; he has impressed me from what I've seen and I think he has the talent to play at a higher level. The pressure seems to be more on TNS with them needing the CL money more, whilst Bangor have done well already to get 2nd so can play with more freedom. I watched TNS play against Bala (well I watched the first half before going to Wembley to watch Spurs, then caught up with the highlights), and they looked quite nervy, Bala missed two sitters caused by silly defensive errors. Anything could happen in this game, but I think 1.72 for TNS is a bit disrespectful to Bangor and I think overestimates the "full-time" factor. Slight value on Bangor side, Bangor +0.5 (AH) is 1.9 but better to go for the straight win as if it is a draw with ten minutes to go naturally they will go for it.

Not sure about the unders though. Apparently last season in the title decider TNS played defensively and it cost them, you'd think they would have learnt from that. 13/15 home games have been over, I think we will could see a lot of goals here, though no bet for me on goals.

Will have a think about the other games now as well.
 
My thoughts (not bets) on the other games:

Aber vs Newtown...Newtown look too big at 7s here, Aber are 1.36 with William Hill which made me laugh. I think it would be equivalent to Stoke being 1.36 at home to Bolton or something like that, which you would never see, although the larger overround is obviously a part of it. I know Newtown are down and Aber need the points, but Newtown have played with spirit lately and I don't think they will just give in. Maybe the draw is the better option at 4.4.

Afan Lido vs Airbus...would consider backing Lido as they need the points more. Airbus are on poor form and have already qualified for a playoff place with Neath not getting the UEFA licence. But the alleged betting scandal and Lido's own poor form puts me off them, so no bet.

Neath vs Llanelli...prices look about right. Llanelli have improved lately, Neath are a club in dissaray although they have the better players.

Port Talbot vs Carmarthen...Port Talbot look slightly too short @ 1.8, they have had lots of draws, Carmarthen have picked up more points in the 2nd phase, both teams need the points although from what I've read it seems unlikely that the 2nd bottom club will get relegated this season.

Prestatyn vs Bala...a dead rubber, Prestatyn +0.5 AH @ 1.88 looks a decent shout IMO, I know they have lost every game in the 2nd phase, but their performances seem to have improved lately, players are coming back from injury and this is their most winnable game. I think they will be motivated to have picked up at least one point from this part of the season, to give them a bit of confidence going into the playoffs.

Would be interested to know your thoughts traeth, and please correct me if I've made any factual errors! :thumb
 
hi punter , it is being shown live on S4C , who also have a ticker with results, looks a bit amaturish and its in Welsh , team names confuses me sometimes

great post pg

Aber vs Newtown...Aber are in-form but that price is very poor , can't back Newtown away.

Afan Lido vs Airbus...Lido's manager is leaving the club at the end of the season due to lack of financial investment , they should pay their players first.

" Neath not getting the UEFA licence."
no reason given on this , it could be minor [ last season a club had to appeal the WPL licence as their emergency exit doors were painted the wrong colour] or more likely it is financial and Rhyl who were refused a licence last season due to finances are watching this closely.
totally agree with your comment on their match at Llanelli

Prestatyn vs Bala... I'm not backing Prestatyn , they'll probably save their doubtful players for the playoffs but Bala Town could be thinking the same.Not a game I'll be betting on.

C'mon Bangor
just read this in today's daily post , who have their "experts" recommending Bangor , Nigel Adkins included

but it must not be forgotten Bangor have already won once on the Oswestry rug this season – scoring four in the process.
However, with TNS also having won twice at Bangor, the champions do not really hold a psychological advantage.
A big plus for City is their away form. Since the second phase began, the Nantporth aces have a 100% record on their travels.
By contrast, TNS have lost to Neath, drawn with Llanelli and struggled to beat Bala Town and Prestatyn Town at Park Hall in phase two.
 
hi punter , it is being shown live on S4C , who also have a ticker with results, looks a bit amaturish and its in Welsh , team names confuses me sometimes

I'm looking forward it tbh Traeth, i mentioned it to the mrs that she might as well go shopping cause i'm having it on, she just glared evils at me.

Good luck anyway, you too pg-yid :thumb
 
Afan Lido v Airbus

Afan Lido poor recent form , their manager Dyer's announcement that he's leaving at the end of the season and this comment from Dyer in the South Wales Evening Post has swung me towards a bet on Airbus @ 2.6

"We need a win to give us a lift ahead of the cup final, but I am also aware that some players may need a rest ahead of our meeting with Newtown,"
"We had our chance to get seventh place but we did not take it so we now have to consider our options.
"What we do against Airbus is not going to affect any other team so we have to do what is best for Afan Lido.
"It would be nice to win to boost morale by finishing on a high, but next week is one of the biggest moments in this club's history."
 
Watching it now traeth...with the sound down!

why is Malcolm Allen going on your nerves :)

what's your opinion on the names of some of the teams on the ticker?

Bangor's defence looks a bit iffy
 
what's your opinion on the names of some of the teams on the ticker?

:lol

Some are spelt exactly the same, some are nothing like! I did giggle at Hereford :)
 
The places near to the border have Welsh equivalent and the Welsh have names for towns that have castles , with the exception of Newcastle , hope its a game of two halves :eek:
 
The places near to the border have Welsh equivalent and the Welsh have names for towns that have castles , with the exception of Newcastle , hope its a game of two halves :eek:

Ever since I've been watching Sgorio, I always wondered why they had names for some places and not others. I worked out that it was places near the Welsh border, the castles thing explains the rest!

Anyway, I just watched the TNS-Bangor game on the S4C website. TNS were a class above...so much for my comments about the full time factor being overplayed. Good call on Airbus traeth, a shame I didn't see that before the game. Any thoughts on League Cup final? I quite fancy Newtown, depending on the odds obviously. If they are priced up as rank outsiders because they finished bottom I think they may be worth a punt. We'll see...
 
I agree with you on Newtown pg, there is something not right at Afan Lido but a final may bring out the best of them , I would be backing Newtown at 5/2 or above
 
Thanks traeth; I made a few units antepost after following your advice not to back Bangor at the season's start.
 
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