Welsh Premier League 23/24/25 March

[traeth]

these odds from bluesq

Fri
19:30 Afan Lido v Port Talbot 2.05 3.40 3.00
19:30 Airbus v Newtown 1.61 3.60 4.50
19:45 The New Saints v Prestatyn 1.25 5.00 8.50

Sat
14:30 Bangor v Llanelli 1.61 3.50 4.75
15:45 Carmarthen v Aberystwyth 2.20 3.30 2.80

Sun
14:30 Bala Town v Neath 3.00 3.25 2.10


my initial thoughts

I am leaning towards Afan Lido but they have drawn a few lately.
TNS league leaders at home against a side that is yet to win this year who have long term injuries , I'll probably take TNS on the A.H. , awaiting prices.
Bangor second in the league but that price at their new ground I'm rather reluctant.
Carmarthen as I'm opposing Aber with Tomi in charge
Neath really interest me , they had been on a good run until they lost at home to leaders TNS last week.
Neath had striker Chris Jones sent off 10 minutes after half time , it was for two yellows both for dissent which could be a big factor in Neath losing the league as TNS scored their winner on the 83rd minute.

my bet will be in Sunday's match , Neath @ 2.1 with bluesq

 

[ONEDUNME]

Sorry Traeth - with you again

 

[traeth]

Sorry Traeth - with you again

the way my betting luck has been this year I can't blame anyone for jinxing my bets , so be warned , its my profit from my rugby bets that is just keeping my betting bank afloat

 

[pg_yid]

these odds from bluesq

Fri
19:30 Afan Lido v Port Talbot 2.05 3.40 3.00
19:30 Airbus v Newtown 1.61 3.60 4.50
19:45 The New Saints v Prestatyn 1.25 5.00 8.50

Sat
14:30 Bangor v Llanelli 1.61 3.50 4.75
15:45 Carmarthen v Aberystwyth 2.20 3.30 2.80

Sun
14:30 Bala Town v Neath 3.00 3.25 2.10


my initial thoughts

I am leaning towards Afan Lido but they have drawn a few lately.
TNS league leaders at home against a side that is yet to win this year who have long term injuries , I'll probably take TNS on the A.H. , awaiting prices.
Bangor second in the league but that price at their new ground I'm rather reluctant.
Carmarthen as I'm opposing Aber with Tomi in charge
Neath really interest me , they had been on a good run until they lost at home to leaders TNS last week.
Neath had striker Chris Jones sent off 10 minutes after half time , it was for two yellows both for dissent which could be a big factor in Neath losing the league as TNS scored their winner on the 83rd minute.

my bet will be in Sunday's match , Neath @ 2.1 with bluesq

Hello mate, I've been reading your posts for a while and thought I would join up to discuss the Welsh league, as I bet on it myself. I'm on punterslounge but people don't write about it as regularly on there. I always like to look at your bets before I make my picks; I think you must have a decent yield from your WPL bets, some great tips!

Not sure about Neath personally at that price, think them and TNS might struggle on that pitch at Bala. Carmarthen appeals like you say but Aber have seemed to play quite well the last couple of games. I'd finally decided to put a big bet on TNS @ 1.3 but then the odds dropped, annoying. Not sure whether to still do it now or try a smaller stake with the handicap. Prestatyn have been very poor lately, Gibson and Parker out and playing on the artificial pitch, with TNS needing the points; looks like a banker.

What do you reckon about Airbus? They are chasing the last Euro playoff spot so have an incentive, Newtown look poor defensively and are pretty much doomed. Airbus have twice as many points as Newtown. Newtown need to try and win the game which may leave them open at the back. Airbus at 1.62 or so looks quite good to me. I'm not from Wales and have only started following the league this season so always feel I'm guessing to some extent, but have made a decent profit from my Welsh bets this year.

 

[traeth]

great to have another contributer to the welsh thread , some replies to your comments

decent yield from your WPL bets - I used to do well before they reduced the league from 18 to 12 and I used to watch my team Porthmadog at home before they were "relegated"

Not sure about Neath personally at that price, think them and TNS might struggle on that pitch at Bala. There a quite a few poor pitches in this league , Bala Town's pitch is poor after heavy rain -unusually it hasn't rained recently . Neath's pitch is even worse than Bala Town's so not so much of a disadvantage

Carmarthen appeals like you say but Aber have seemed to play quite well the last couple of games. I'm opposing Aber's manager here , Tomi Morgan an Aber man but the manager that got my team relegated-He couldn't manage to fart on a diet of baked beans

I'd finally decided to put a big bet on TNS @ 1.3 but then the odds dropped, annoying- looks like a banker.Bangor won 4-0 at Prestatyn last week so , TNS-2 A.H. @ 1.75 is the bet I've done

What do you reckon about Airbus? - Airbus did win 4-0 at Airbus last month , its the draw that worries me as Newtown drew three out their four games after that defeat

good luck with your bets pg

I'm on Bangor for Saturday

this from Flintshire Chronicle
Airbus goalkeeper Niki Lee-Bulmer is not expected to play for Airbus again this season after dislocating his shoulder in Sunday's defeat at Port Talbot

 

[pg_yid]

Thanks for your comments traeth. Am trying to learn as much as possible about this league so I appreciate any information.

From what I can tell the old 18 team league was a better set-up, there doesn't seem to be enough games now, and the same fixtures crop up quite often. Unfair on the relegated teams like your lot as well.

The draw worries me slightly about Airbus as well but I ended up taking them when the price rose to 1.73 with William Hill. It just seemed too big a price for what is a mid-table vs bottom clash, with both teams having something to play for. I saw their goalie was out, and a couple of other players too. Not sure how important that is. In general in betting I find the importance of team news to be overplayed by the market, unless the whole team is out or something, but I appreciate it might be different in a league such as the WPL where squads aren't as strong. I decided to take a gamble on Airbus anyway, with relatively small stakes.

I ended up putting a relatively big amount on the straight TNS win as well, even though the best odds I could get were 1.22. Although Prestatyn are a mid-table side, taking everything into account I can't see past a home win, although I am aware there is no such thing as a banker!

Good luck with your bets as well, I may join you on Bangor. Llanelli have been poor and Bangor have the extra motivation but Bangor's record so far at Nantporth does put me off a bit.

 

[traeth]

great call on your selections pg

Afan Lido 2-2 Port Talbot
Airbus 3-1 Newtown ...Airbus down to 10 men after 3 minute found it easy , they were down to 9 men at the end
The New Saints 2-1 Prestatyn ...injury time winner

 

[pg_yid]

Thanks mate. Bit of a close shave with TNS, I'm glad I was with my girlfriend Friday night and completely oblivious to them struggling to win that match.

Haven't watched any highlights yet, if/when I've got time I will watch the highlights and the game that was on live on the S4C website for future research.

 

[traeth]

I'm glad for your win pg . I had a poor betting weekend with draws being my downfall.

That TNS match ended up in a brawl following that late goal from a freekick , looks like TNS will win the league now

 

[pg_yid]

I watched the Carmarthen-Aber game on Clic, it was a very poor game (good medicine for insomnia) with Aber shading it in terms of quality, 0-3 was a bit harsh on the hosts. I've read that Aber have been underperforming with the players they have, so perhaps not that much of a surprise, although it is a widely held view that Tomi Morgan was a bad appointment as a manager. Maybe they are experiencing the honeymoon period of having a new manager regardless of his ineptitude. We will see- they are one point clear of Carmarthen in the relegation battle.

As for the other games, Newtown were shocking and are surely down now (unless no one gets a licence to come up, that is), maybe I got a bit lucky in the TNS game, I'm not 100% sure they were value @ 1.22, but in my experience it's staggering the amount of short-priced favourites who go on to barely scrape a victory. Cracking brawl at the end. Poor result for Bangor, it seemed a draw was fair in that game, leaves them with a lot to do; the title is TNS's to lose now. Cup games this weekend should be interesting, I look forward to your picks traeth.