Welsh Premier League 8th/9th/10th March

[traeth]

these odds from sporting

Friday
Port Talbot v Carmarthen 2.00 3.50 3.20
Bangor v Airbus 1.85 3.60 3.50
TNS v Prestatyn 1.333 5.00 6.50

Saturday
Newtown v Connahs Quay 2.45 3.60 2.40
Aberystwyth v Afan Lido 1.80 3.75 3.60

Sunday
Bala Town v Llanelli 1.666 4.00 4.00

Bangor take on Airbus again , they won 1-0 last week in the Cup but it wasn't easy 3.5 looks value , can't get myself to back it yet though , perhaps by Friday things could be different.

Aber look decent at the moment and Lido are poor.

pg ...TNS playing Friday mate ... can't find the smilies!

 

[pg_yid]

Hi mate.

I am finding it to be a difficult coupon again this week. Partly because I've been busy lately and not following Welsh football with the usual vigour. Prestatyn over 3.5 looks no more than a fair price this week (1.83) as I'm not certain their attack (which is talented but slow) will manage to score against a pacy, professional TNS defence who don't concede many at home. I would say TNS to win easily here but I would be looking at evens for a -1.5AH not the poxy 1.65 on offer. Similarly 1.3 looks too small to back for a home win as Prestatyn have enough talent to spring a surprise win, although I'd say with their defence it is very unlikely and an organised side like Carmarthen or Bala is more likely to get a draw or win there.

2.15 at first glance looks generous to me for a Bangor win. I didn't watch the game last week though. Am trying to get the highlights now but my laptop broke and this computer is so slow. From what I've seen they were very unlucky to have the header disallowed, terrible decision there. Did Airbus play well? Bangor look to have recovered from their poor form. With Davies and Simm up front they will always be dangerous. Long-term records show 2.15 as a good price on Bangor but then again Airbus have strengthened recently, so maybe it is no more than a fair price. Would you say Airbus are Bangor's equals now traeth?

As for unders/overs in that game, they are both overish sides but Airbus can't seem to score against the top sides whilst Bangor's defence has tightened recently. Probably Nev has been working on it in training. 2.15 for over 3.5 would be my bet if I had to choose but it's not good enough to tempt, so no bet there.

The 1x2 for the Port Talbot game looks about right, with Port Talbot a marginally better side than Carmarthen. However, one bet I finally do like and am about to take is under 3.5 @ 1.6 (Bwin). Statistically this comes in more often than the odds suggest. Both sides are quite organised and tight defensively (relatively speaking). It is available @ 1.7 with My Bet but they refused to give me an account.

Traeth- thanks for the reminder re: TNS!

I will come to Saturday's games in a minute.

 

[pg_yid]

The other games...
No value at Newtown for me.
The other two look worth considering for the home win. Llanelli have lost their captain to Port Talbot on loan, so I understand. Bala are in good form, but it's the sort of game which could be a 'rogue' draw. I think the same could be said for Aber. I'd strongly expect them to win, but that is factored in to the 1.7 so I think it's a no bet for me.

 

[traeth]

Would you say Airbus are Bangor's equals now traeth?

Yes I would , Airbus were unlucky to lose at home to them in the league.
Airbus played much better in the second half of the cup match , but the Welsh Cup is Bangor's forte.
I'm finding this match difficult to pick a winner.