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Atletico Madrid, what to do?

Discussion in 'Betting Talk' started by Punter, Dec 18, 2013.

  1. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    From my 'Pay in May' thread, I'm currently sat with these three bets.

    LA LIGA
    27/8/13 Winner - Atletico Madrid £15 @ 100/1 Coral
    15/11/13 Winner - Real Madrid £20 @ 4/1 Bet Victor

    CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
    17/8/13 Winner - Atletico Madrid £16 @ 118 Betdaq

    The La Liga bets are straight forward enough, I think?
    Atletico are at home to Barca on January the 12th and i'll leave things alone until after that game.
    If Atletico can win that i'll probably be able to back Barca at around Evens or just above for a small profit on both them and Real, leaving the biggest payout on Atletico still, for now.
    Atletico still wont be out of it if they don't win and it could all go down to a very interesting last day of the season where Atletico go to Barca.
    Barca and Atletico are joint top of the league at present, on the same points and on the same goal difference and its almost at the half way point of the season.
    Barca are currently around 1/2 and Atletico are 7/1
    As it's a bet with Corals rather than an exchange I don't really have the funds for a lay of Atletico here right now and I think this is probably the best way to play it?


    It's the CL bet that I feel I ought to be concentrating on right now, I'm not sure what to do here. They have been drawn against AC Milan with the first leg in the San Siro. It's an Exchange bet and I could lay them for my stake back @ 16 for a liability of £250, still leaving me a profit of around £1,500.

    What sort of price would they be if they do qualify. I mean it could become an even bigger price to lay at if they get drawn against Bayern, couldn't it?
    What would you do here? They could get knocked out and I don't even get my stake back. Would you take a look at it after the first leg? Would you let it ride and to what point? I'm not sure what to do here? Should I go get my stake back now?

    I just want to make sure I do my best to make the right decisions here.
  2. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    3,891
    Depends how much you need the £16 I guess, Punter. A free bet for around £1500 is certainly a nice position to be in, personally I'd probably let it ride for a bit longer though.

    As for the price changes if they get through, presumably the draw for the QF isn't made until after all the 2nd round ties have been played, which means Atletico's price would come down first for the fact they've qualified (if they do), the possibility of it going back up if they draw Bayern wouldn't come until later, you'd still get the chance to lay off at a better price before the draw is made. By way of comparison, looking at Oddschecker, Arsenal's price went from 18/1 to 28/1 after they got drawn against Bayern.

    Reckon you're right to wait for now on the league betting too. Bwin have priced the Atletico v Barcelona game up now, by the way, 3.1 for Atletico, 2.15 Barcelona. Once my local bookies prices it up, I'll definitely be on Atletico if they're anywhere near that price.
  3. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,848
    That's a good point RC. I didn't think about the time gap between qualification and the draw for the next round, should they qualify. Thanks. Good to hear you edge with a home win rather than an away one next month too.

    I'll do nothing for now but if you or anybody else see's something that I might need to think about then please say so.

    On another note, have you heard or read much about this story. Is it like to give Atletico an extra 0.000000005% chance of favouritism from the refs in La Liga lol. Or is it a total bullshit story?..

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...m_medium=referral&utm_campaign=programming-UK
  4. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

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    3,891
    Yes, I heard vaguely about it on the news the other day. Don't think it's total bullshit, if anything I'd say it's more likely to be just the tip of the iceberg, the whole country's corrupt from the top down, even the royal family's caught up in corruption scandals. It'll no doubt all end up getting swept under the carpet, same as usual.

    Can't really see it having much of an influence on the pitch though.
    Punter likes this.
  5. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    6,848
    Cheers RC, I am glad Atletico weren't mentioned in there though, for sure.

    GO LOS COLCHONEROS!!
  6. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    6,848
    Yes yes, game on!

    [​IMG]

    Atletico at home to 6th place R. Sociedad, tomorrow. Real away at 4th place Bilbao
  7. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    3,891
    Tough game for Real Madrid, Punter, wouldn't be at all surprised to see them lose that one, Bilbao have already beaten Barcelona at home this season.

    As for Atletico, twice this season they've had the chance to go top (having kicked off later than Barcelona and known that a win would take them top), and both times they've ballsed it up (losing away to Espanyol, drawing at home to Sevilla). They should win, but Real Sociedad aren't a bad side, I'd say it's a more difficult game than either of the previous two occasions, fingers crossed for you it'll be third time lucky :crossfingers
  8. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,848
    True RC.
    I should get a price that's right on Barca now though. If either of the Madrids win tomorrow then i'm sure some 6/4 will be about.
    Still a long way to go but that result is a massive step in the right direction :)
  9. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

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    3,891
    Not sure what kind of effect it'll have on Atletico (if any), but just read that Luis Aragones (the ex-Spanish manager) has died. Played for Atletico for 10 years, and managed them for around 15 years in 4 separate spells, so very closely associated with them. Might get them to raise their game tomorrow?
  10. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    They'll definitely raise their game.

    I did wonder who's Aragones death would affect more, i didn't google it in the end and guessed it may have been Valencia after today's performance. This is even better news (in a sad way of course), Atletico will win tomorrow.
  11. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    9,914

    Are you still excluded from Betfair? Barca are over 6/4 now if you didn't want to wait until tomorrow
  12. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    Yeah, still excluded.

    I think i'll comeback Monday and take a look. I accept that these are two very difficult fixtures but i've a hunch the Madrids will pick up 4 points tomorrow, possibly 6. It's not essential that i back Barca, though i probably will. I just think they could be closer 2/1 by Monday.
  13. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    The Madrids pick up 4 pts but Ronaldo's straight red has affected the odds, he faces at very least a 3 game ban. Barca are back in to around evens, Real are out to 6/4.
    If Ronaldo hadn't of been sent off i'd been getting at least 7/4 on Barca tomorrow. Wanker, I've never liked him.

    Does this mean he'll miss the game v Atletico?
  14. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

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    3,891

    3 game ban at the very least? It'll be 3 games at the very most, surely? Only looked like he scratched him, reaction of the Bilbao player (Gurpegui I think it was) got him sent off (although the red card probably was the right decision, and if Gurpegui hadn't reacted like that I suspect the ref probably wouldn't have sent Ronaldo off).

    What game against Atletico are you talking about, the Cup semi-final, or the league game. Don't think he'll miss either, I think (although not 100% sure) that bans from the league aren't served in the cup, and they've got 3 league games (Villarreal, Getafe, Elche) before they play Atletico in the league. Can't see them having too many problems with those 3, even without Ronaldo (if they'd been away to Villarreal then maybe, but they're at home).
  15. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    I must of mis-heard some commentary at the end, i thought Gerry Armstrong said it will be a minimum of 3 and maybe 1 more because of something???

    I missed Real's game against Getafe when i scrolled down the fixtures. Looks like he'll be back in time for the game then.
  16. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

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    3,891
    Don't know then mate, maybe there was some other reason for it to possibly be increased.
  17. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    The mrs was chattin'. I probably mis-heard :thumb

    I've got to back Barca, i'm tempted to wait till after next weekends games, but i suppose i ought get my stakes back, while i can.
  18. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    3,891
    Reckon you might be as well to wait a few weeks, Punter. Looking at the next 3 weeks, Barcelona have got the trickier run of games.

    Real Madrid:
    Villarreal (H), Getafe (A), Elche (H)

    Barcelona:
    Sevilla (A), Rayo (H), Real Sociedad (A)

    Atletico:
    Almeria (A), Valladolid (H), Osasuna (A)

    Can't really see Madrid dropping points in any of those. Atletico should win the first two, although the Osasuna one will then be tricky. Two very awkward away games for Barcelona in there though.

    Might be an idea to wait until those 3 games have been played, see if Barcelona drop any points at Sevilla and/or Real Sociedad.
  19. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    I'll have a look and see what odds Hills, Corals and Ladbrokes shop prices are tomorrow and probably back with one them. I think you're right in saying wait to see what happens after the next three fixtures because of the tougher fixtures for Barca but if it goes wrong then i could end up £35 out of pocket.
    I should at least get my stakes back while i can, i think. It's small insurance, compared to the possible payout from Atletico. I can then sit back in the comfort, knowing that i've not lost anything. Then maybe look at it again if Atletico become available to lay at evens.
    I'm worried about that tricky Osasuna game that you mentioned too, it's the game in between their two CL fixtures with Milan.

    And mentioning the two AC Milan fixtures, i'm not as happy with Atletico's chances since AC sacked their manager. They have improved their squad in the transfer window, nobody too spectacular but also everybody now has a fresh start under Seedorf.
    I've just layed a small bit from Atletico and put it on AC @ 64
  20. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

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