Discussion in 'Tennis Betting' started by homunculus, May 13, 2012.
now to the tennis - I reconsidered on the new day. First - this is Thursday, NOT Wednesday today,
and second - Azarenka withdrew from Rome. Therefore I decided to keep Serena's future
and start to pushing my luck further. She plays vs Medina Garrigues today that lost to Lepchenko
in Madrid, Medina's odds are around 12.000, I guess that Serena perhaps SHOULD make it,
and I shall decedide about her future later.
additional plays for THURSDAY
I am going to continue massaging Kvitova and V.Williams.
Stosur -2.5 > V.Williams @1.926 Pinnacle (5/10)
Cirstea to bt Kvitova @5.25 Pinnacle (2/10)
Venus quite lucky that Makarova chickened in the yesterday's match, and blew it up being
5-4 up in the 1st set and serving for the 1st set. After lost 1st set tie-break, Makarova totally
collapsed and never really got up again. Now Stosur is far more experienced than Makarova,
is rightly favourite here, and though I would not support her against, say, Serena or Azarenka,
she should get over out of form Venus quite comfortably. They played in Charleston this year,
Sam won 63 46 63, and I expect this to be much shorter today.
As to Kvitova, she struggled against Pavlyuchenkova that, despite her poor serve,
managed to escape total spank. Petra made 8 DF and billions of unforceds, and
I would not bet in her favour even if this were at evens. Sorana is quite solid player,
actually she has won their last match in Copenhagen 2010 on i-hard (Petra's best surface),
did beat Bartoli in Madrid (OK, Marion was not at her best shape, but neither is Kvitova),
and IMO every decent player has got chance against Kvitova on clay.
Almagro +3 > Berdych @1.952 Pinnacle (5/10)
Almagro is a beast in past couple of days. He played tight match with David Ferrer last week
in Madrid, and bagelised Cilic in R1 here, and actually he defeated Berdy this year in IW (hard)
64 60. Mugro's best surface is clay as opposed to Berdy who feels better on quicker surfaces,
so I would not be surprised at all if Mugro wins this, but I shall stay in a nicely priced handicap.
against a bag of sh*t that is able to doublefault through whole game, and is recovering from the fatigue syndrome,
this is too much. So this is -12 pts today. I shall ride that Serena's future till the end, and we shall see whether
this will be +6 pts for the week, or is Rome going to anihilate my profit from Madrid.
continuing suicide mission FRIDAY
Tsonga vs Djokovic over 21.5 games @2.01 Pinnacle (3/10)
Their matches were always pretty tough, and Tsonga seems to be in form.
Though his yesterday's win over Delpo was at least partly attributable to
Berdych +5 > Nadal @1.917 Pinnacle (3/10)
Berdych playing really welll in this clay season. So far only lost to Djokovic
and Federer in pretty tight three setters. Though basically he IS a choker
and did cost me lots of lest bets, I give him once more a try cos this guy
brilliantly overplayed Delpo last week in the semis bringing me a small
and continuing to massage Kvitova
Kerber to bt Kvitova @2.170 Pinnacle (2/10)
Might seem risky, but the golden rule says "ya shalt stay in a commenced delusion",
so I obey
+2.1 pts for Friday is good news, the bad news is that this bloody Serena Williams
withdrew after havig basically a walkover against Pennetta. The future is gone
and current week's balance on declared bets is -19.6 pts
I am going to spend the fortnight profit by vthe following:
Kerber vs Sharapova over 21 games @1.943 (2/10)
H2H is 1-1 and both in good form. Sharapova has hardert shots that Angelique will
have trouble to return, but makes too many errors wich will enable Angelique to get
back into match.
Has been nice and cheap fun
Rome ATP final:
Djokovic to bt Nadal @2.22 Pinnacle (10/10)
Easy. From last 8 matches, Djoker won 7, including Madrid and Rome clay finals last year.
The last match in Monte-Carlo (Rafa won) this year was influenced by a) Monte Carlo is
the last Rafa's fortress where he remains unbeaten since 2005. He would rather prefer to lose
a Grand Slam final than Monte Carlo. b) Djoker had personal problems of his own.
But now Djoker is back as he proved in the semis vs Fedex, and wants to defend the title.
The stories about him not being in good shape proved once again wrong, as they have done
many times before - Djoker is dangerous in this, because he always looks like as if he is
going to collapese the very minute, but then he pulls out unbelievable tennis. The weather
conditions in the final should be OK for Djoker - partly cloudy, about 23 degrees centigrade,
weak or no wind at all. Heat would not suit Djoker and wind would have favoured Nadal, but as
the forecast stands, with no known injuries at Djoker's side, H2H and form, at odds above 2,
Djoker is clear choice.