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BBC Sports Personality Of The Year 2011

Discussion in 'Special & Novelty Betting' started by slick, Aug 10, 2011.

  1. slick

    slick Administrator

    Just filling in some forums.

    Who Will Win The 2011 BBC Sports Personality Of The Year?


    Clarke, Darren 1.90
    McIlroy, Rory 2.75
    Ennis, Jessica 11.00
    Cavendish, Mark 17.00
    Murray, Andy 26.00
    Farah, Mo 26.00
    Donald, Luke 41.00
    Khan, Amir 51.00
    Taylor, Phil 51.00
    Daley, Tom 51.00
    Cook, Alistair 51.00
    Ashton, Chris 51.00
    Hamilton, Lewis 67.00
    Westwood, Lee 67.00
    Strauss, Andrew 67.00
    McDowell, Graeme 67.00
    Button, Jenson 67.00
    Flood, Toby 67.00
    Broad, Stuart 67.00
    Moody, Lewis 81.00
    Poulter, Ian 81.00
    Casey, Paul 81.00
    Rose, Justin 81.00
    Idowu, Phillips 81.00
    Trump, Judd 81.00
    Swann, Graeme 101.00
    O'Sullivan, Ronnie 101.00
    Wilkinson, Jonny 101.00
    Anderson, James 101.00
    Pietersen, Kevin 101.00
    Fisher, Ross 101.00
    Ohuruogu, Christine 101.00
    Williams, Amy 101.00
    Tweddle, Beth 101.00
    Radcliffe, Paula 101.00
    Turner, Hayley 101.00
    Chambers, Dwain 151.00
    Dettori, Frankie 151.00
    Montgomerie, Colin 201.00
    Higgins, John 201.00
    Williams, Mark 201.00
    Lewis Francis, Mark 201.00
    Adlington, Rebecca 201.00
    Miley, Hannah 201.00
    Chisora, Derek 251.00

    Odds Stan James
  2. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Frankel! Give it to Frankel!

    Joking aside is Mo Farah really into 25/1? I did a bit of a write up on TDP about him a couple of month back and took him at 100/1 :)
  3. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    ....here it is

    I've just backed Mo Farah, 3pts @ 100/1 Betfred

    He's just broken the European 10,000 meters record in Oregon against a class field. It's his second win in under a week after taking the Bupa London event on Monday.

    Mo Farah breaks European 10,000m record in Diamond League meeting | Sport | guardian.co.uk

    He's heading for the world championships in August.

    I know that the olympics are next year and he probably has more chance then but I do think 100/1 is a massive price here and i've backed him with the belief that he will shorten to a lay price of under 12/1 at some point (possibly August) for the 2011 SPotY Award.
  4. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Not the worst shout in the world and Farah is into 25/1 and less now. It'll all be down to the edit on the night and that very short 'window of voting'.

    A bit weird that of those most likely to win BBC SPotY that it's only Darren Clarke who'll have been shown on the BBC.

    The England cricket team might have a representative in the shortlist of ten but their reward is almost certainly 'Team of the Year'.

    Definitely on the shortlist: Darren Clarke, Mark Cavendish, Rory McIlroy.
    Very likely to be on the shortlist: Jessica Ennis, Mo Farah, Philips Idowu, Amir Khan
    Might be on the shortlist: James Anderson, Ian Bell, Stuart Broad, Alastair Cook, Luke Donald, Andy Murray, Andrew Strauss, Graeme Swann
    Need to do something to be on the shortlist: Delon Armitage, Chris Ashton, Tom Daley, Carl Froch, Dai Greene, Manu Tuilagi, Jonny Wilkinson

    Last year probably proved that when you put two golfers on the shortlist, then there's very likely to be 'split voting' with Lee Westwood finishing fourth and Graeme McDowell finishing fifth. It might happen again.
  5. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Mo Farah's just finished 2nd in the 10,000 metres with Ibrahim Jeilan pipping him in the last few metres.
  6. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Jessica Ennis finishes second but Dai Greene wins the 400 metres hurdles! The first global 400 metres hurdles title for a Brit since 1968! He's into 8/1 with Bet365! He won't win SPotY though surely!? Phillips Idowu left in regards likely gold medallists left though.
  7. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    I agree about the golfers Stereoman, one will lose alot of votes over the other, however i do think Mcllroy is/will be the far more likelier of the two come the time and i'm very surprised to see the odds on the pair, i think they are the wrong way round.

    3pts on Mcllroy @ 2/1
    3pts on Cavendish @ 14/1

    Both @ V.C Bet
  8. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Mo Farah beats Bernard Lagat to win the 5,000 metres, and his odds drop as he's now third favourite behind Clarke and McIlroy. The only other person with odds of less than 10/1 generally is Andy Murray. Dai Greene's odds are out to 14/1+.

    Phillips Idowu finishes second to Christian Taylor in the triple jump.
  9. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Six definitely on the shortlist then as Alistair Cook wins ICC Cricketer of the Year.

    Darren Clarke 'evens' (Ladbrokes)
    Rory McIlroy 4/1 (Ladbrokes)
    Mo Farah 5/1 (Bet365/Bodog/Paddy Power)
    Mark Cavendish 14/1 (Bet365/Stan James)
    Alistair Cook 33/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Stan James)
    Dai Greene 40/1 (Bet365/Betfred/Coral/Ladbrokes)

    Anyone's guess as to who the other nominees will be...Tom Daley's still in the mix apparently. Oliver Golding's got Young SPotY in the bag surely!?

    Amir Khan should be on there but I can't imagine Carl Froch or Nathan Cleverly will be.

    With there being a lack of female representation it opens the door for Rebecca Adlington who did win the 800 metres freestyle gold in Shanghai. Jessica Ennis won't be there. Beth Tweddle might be if she wins in October though.

    Another cricketer may get a filler nomination.

  10. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    David Walliams being given a 10/1 quote by Stan James!? LOL!! They're the only ones who've bothered to price him up!

    He's more likely to be given the Special Achievement award again then be on the shortlist of ten.
  11. Rob44

    Rob44 Member

    dai green really 41.0? seems long for someone who should pick up a strong regional vote - perhaps worth a small top 3 @9.5 betfair at the moment? what do you think stereoman, am i overestimating the welsh patriotism?
  12. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    On this occasion, probably. I'm not aware of any campaigns for Dai Greene to win SPotY although if there are any, it may prove significant.

    Dai Greene's odds went down to 8/1 when he won gold at Daegu then it shot back up to 40/1 when the hype died down (most likely due to Mo Farah's heroics of winning gold in the 10,000 metres when he got pipped in the 5,000 metres and the focus shifting towards Mo Farah).

    He'll almost certainly win Welsh Sports Personality of the Year though.

    Who's got the edge right now? It may depend what campaigns are being mounted. Darren Clarke when he got pipped by Zara Phillips back in 2006 didn't 'actively' campaign. 'evens' is skinny for Darren Clarke to win even if there is the feeling it's 'his time'.

    The show is in Salford and on Thursday 22nd December, and not on a Sunday this year.

  13. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Today's Bettingzone Market News:

    1300: A day after winning gold in the World Road Race Championship in Copenhagen, Mark Cavendish continues to be backed to be named the BBC Sports Personality of the Year, with Coral bookmakers trimming the Manx Machine to 4/1 (from 5/1).

    Cavendish added the title to the green jersey he won in this year’s Tour de France.

    “Punters obviously realise the enormity of Cav’s achievements this year and are still tempted by the current prices on offer, after snapping up the 10/1 immediately after his weekend win,” said Coral spokesman Gary Burton.

    Darren Clarke remains the odds-on favourite to at 10/11, with Cavendish, Mo Farah and Rory McIlroy, all close behind. It’s 25/1 and upwards the rest.
  14. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Farah as short as 4/1 and Cavendish as short as 9/4....somebody shoot the favourite eh :D
  15. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Looking good Punter :thumb You laying any of it off yet?
  16. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    No not yet, i thought about laying some of the Mo Farah bet off a week or two ago but thought i'd wait to see how it goes on the night, he's drifting now though and i might of missed the boat. Cavendish looks the most likely winner to me now.
  17. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Today;s Bettingzone Market News:

    1325: Coral report strong support for Mark Cavendish to win BBC Sports Personality of the Year after his World Championship gold last weekend.

    They've cut him from 4/1 in to 5/2 for the prize and spokesman Gary Burton said:

    "With all the focus, and 90% of the bets taken since the weekend, on Cav, the golfers achievements of the summer seem to have been forgotten, we could have a new favourite shortly."

    Sportingbet still offer 3/1 while Betfred have taken cover, cutting him to 7/4.

    Meanwhile Darren Clarke is 6/4 with Betfred despite being 10/11 with Paddy Power, while his compatriot Rory McIlroy is right out to 10s in a place.

    Mo Farah looks the other obvious contender and he's 9/1 with sportingbet and Betfred.
  18. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    More Bettingzone Market News:

    1600: William Hill have been inundated with bets from punters wishing to back Mark Cavendish to win the coveted BBC Sports Personality Of The Year award.

    The Manx Missile has been backed all the way in from 5/1 to 5/2 since winning gold at the World Championships last weekend.

    For the first time since he won the Open, Darren Clarke is no longer the odds-on favourite and is 5/4 to win the award. Mo Farah is 5/1 while US Open winner, Rory McIlroy, is 7/1. The next closest contender is Tom Daley who is priced at 20/1.

    “The Open was a long time ago and Darren since then, has been unable to hit his hat. Conversely Cav has gone from strength to strength winning both the Green Jersey at the TDF and the Rainbow Jersey last week. There has also been a significant campaign started on twitter and he is now a genuine contender,” said Hill’s spokesman Joe Crilly.

    BBC Sports Personality of the Year, Hill's bet: 5/4 Darren Clarke; 5/2 Mark Cavendish; 5/1 Mo Farah; 7/1 Rory McIlroy; 20/1 Tom Daley; 33/1 Wayne Rooney; 33/1 Dai Greene; 33/1 Alastair Cook; 66/1 BAR.
  19. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    My prediction last year, they finished 1st and 2nd.
    I got too heavily involved last year, the biggest stake i have ever placed in any one market. I'm nowhere near that this year, not even close to it, but i'm as confident this year as i was last year....

    Only Cavendish or Farah can win this!
  20. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Mark Cavendish is the gamble thus likely to rack up a surprisingly high number of votes, and looks likely to foil both Darren Clarke and Rory McIlroy but someone from the Welsh rugby union team could be a massive spoiler. Sam Warburton is as low as 25/1 and George North gets a 50/1 quote from Ladbrokes.

    I don't see Mo Farah as a factor this year. If he'd have won two gold medals then he'd have been at least second.

    Top five in the betting right now:

    Darren Clarke 13/8 (Blue SQ)
    Mark Cavendish 9/4 (Bet365/Stan James)
    Rory McIlroy 15/2 (Betfred)
    Mo Farah 9/1 (Betfred/Sportingbet)
    Alistair Cook 50/1 (Sportingbet)