Discussion in 'World Cup 2014 Betting' started by Seen, Jun 18, 2014.
GERMANY v GHANA
Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 3.1 (no bookings for Germany and 2 for Ghana in opening games)
Corners - no bet
Corners match bet - layed Germany @ 1.32 (Germany lost the corners match bet when beating 10-man Portugal, Ghana won 7 corners v USA even though they lost the game)
NIGERIA v BOSNIA
Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 3.1 and backed 25pts or under @ 3.4 so 30-40 to break even (no bookings for Nigeria and just 1 for Bosnia in opening games)
exactly half (14/28) of the games so far have had 2 or fewer bookings, so evens is generally the correct price for 25pts or under.
only 4 of the 28 games have had more than 40pts so 6/1 is generally the correct price for 45pts and over.
Can I just say, Dzeko = spastic
BELGIUM v RUSSIA
Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 3.25 and backed 25pts or under @ 3.25 so 30-40pts breaks even (punters seem to be finally catching on, 25pts or under is now 2.74 - worth doing these bets early)
Missed the start of the S KOREA v ALGERIA game but did get small amount placed earlier matched @ 3.3 on the 25pts or under market - ended up as 30pts but did trade at 1.34 in-running.
The corners match bet was interesting in-play - ALGERIA were 5-1 up but with them also leading on goals 3-0 there was always a good chance S KOREA could claw some corners back. I got small amounts matched at 60.0 for S KOREA and 22.0 for the TIE, and S KOREA ended up winning the corner count 7-5. Someone made a mistake and layed me 7.8 for a tie when it was 5-5 with 8 mins to go and I was damn unlucky too as at 6-5 to KOREA the ref gave a goal kick when it was clearly a corner to Algeria. I won on the market but that would have given me 3 times as much.
Just shows how volatile that market can be, I don't think punters have clicked on yet that the team who's winning are less likely to win more corners. Algeria were as short as 1.05 when 5-1 up on the corners. Liquidity is poor until the last 20 mins or so but you can still get value if patient.
Another bet landed on the bookings - just the one yellow.
32 games played
28 games (87.5%) finished with under 45pts, so laying anything less than 8.0 is value (usually can lay between 3/1 and 4/1)
16 games (50%) finished with under 25pts, so backing anything bigger than 2.0 is value (usually can back between 3.2 and 4.0)
25pts and under booking odds are currently...
1.87 Australia v Spain
2.46 Holland v Chile
2.16 Cameroon v Brazil
3.05 Croatia v Mexico
You could argue that 1.87 is value to lay on the Aussies v Spain game, but happy to leave it.
Already got a good book on the 12X market as I took the opinion as soon as Spain went out that 1.39 was far too short for this game - the spanish players won't even want to play it. Traded well since (about £3.5k back and forth) and hopefully Spain won't take an early lead so I can trade further...
-£12 ~ Spain
+£98 ~ Draw
+£192 ~ Australia
The corners match bet is hard to call with both teams out, 1.34 does look short for Spain but they've actually only conceded 2 corners so far, despite losing both games. I think I'll wait and see how the games starts, I'll probably try and be with the team who falls behind on goals to win the corner count, price permitting.
NETHERLANDS v CHILE
Really looking forward to this game so gutted it's on at the same time as the Spain game. 2.46 is a bit short for 25pts and under but I have managed to lay 45pts or over @ 3.55 (now 4.1).