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Day one racecard Tuesday 14th March

Discussion in 'Cheltenham 2017' started by slick, Feb 18, 2017.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,865
    I know i'm in a minortiy but i never see BG as a positive when he's in a horse i've backed. I think he has some shocking rides at times and he wouldn't be anywhere near my top dozen jockeys.

    No loss
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,865
    Now I'm worried Punter. I'm thinking Buveur D'air is going to piss all over Yanworth:ohwell. I've already backed three in the race and I can't afford to put any more on unless one of the ones I've backed is a non runner and I get my money back.

    My Tent or Yours is one of them at 33/1
  3. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,824
    It’s a tough race to call this year, really tough. I certainly won’t be having anything other than a small bet here. As things stand, I’m torn between Buveur Dair and Limini.
    Soft or heavy going could even see me opt for an e.w punt on The New One, instead.

    I’m on nothing so far though and for the first time in 30 yrs I’m not taking any time off for the festival, due to me having to take the mrs away for her 50th birthday the following week. Inconsiderate bitch.

    That aside I do have a small pot to play with and one that I’m keen on later in the week is Politologue (6/1) in the JLT Novice Chase. Paul Nicholls has said he’s ‘sweet’ on him here, and so am i. I’ll give this more of a shout in the relevant thread, later on.

    Nothing else is standing out for me on the opening day though other than Altior, but @ 1/3 i wont be backing it unless i find a decent price for it to win by X amount of lengths.
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,865
    I'm in Politologue as well but watched a festival preview night last night and someone was saying it's got fu king no chance. i've put shit loads of antepost bets on this year - all but one a NRNB despite knowing that you end up with worse odds more times than u do better odds.

    My favourite bookie Bet365 are doing NRNB AND BOG so i'd recommend using them i anyone is having an antepost bet.

    Also look out for their grand national offer where you get half your stake back on ew bets in the grand national (assuming they do it this year)

    I'm not sponsored by them by the way - they're just fucking brilliant
  5. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,824
    I have to agree, even though they wont let me bet with them anymore (not because i was winning, but because i self excluded). I did this with several bookies and managed to re-open my accounts a few years later. Bet365 were the only ones who i couldn't get round. They told me i'd never bet with them again, EVER. I'm gutted, but fair play to them.

    I always thought Victor Chandler were a good bookie, i'm surprised by this from them....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4296194/BetVictor-REFUSES-pay-bet-ball-goes-play.html
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,865
    i'm no Victor Chandler fan by a long chalk (gentleman bookmaker my fucking arse - the old cunt shits himself if someone wins more than a tenner and then bans them so that he can fund his wacky adverts with that ugly cunt on to attract mug punters) but every - and i mean every - bet i've ever seen on any site that is for hitting the post says "ball must rebound back into play" and there's a reason for that , it saves arguments and having to have a cricket style "snickometer" to determine whether a ball has grazed the post or not.
  7. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,824
    Yes, but it's a stupid rule. Surely there's some official stats they could follow to?

    Not just that though. Replying to a customer with 'mate'. Poor form.

    It wont stop me from using them though. Usually best priced in the 1X2 markets.
  8. Topdog

    Topdog Moderator

    Messages:
    7,033
    Day 1 bets for me...NR No bet

    1.30-Ballyandy @ 5-1 [Boylesports]

    5.30-Foxtail Hill @ 7-1 [Skybet]

    1pt win on each

    Both trained by Twiston-Davies whose horses are starting to run better again
    Punter likes this.
  9. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,824
    Four visits to Cheltenham four 2nd's. Three runs of which have been at the festival, where only beaten a 1/2L to Champagne Fever in 2013, only beaten a nk to Jezki in 2014 and 4 1/2L to Annie Power in 2016.

    Excellent e.w value imo.I know he's 10 now but I can see a McManus 1,2,3. and a small Combo' tricast is my call.
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,865
    Speaking of Jezki, now 7/1 for the Stayer's Hurdle on Thursday.

    Here are my main bets for day 1. I say "main bets" because I've had a million. In fact I will need to win the first and second race and get both tricasts just to break even on the day lol. I've made a deliberate decision to reduce the amount of each way bets because, as much as it's gutting for my selection to be dead before they get to the final turn, the returns on ew bets don't make up for the additional stakes that they cost during the festival (especially given the amount of runners and only 3 places in many races). The reduction in ew bets has allowed me to "invest" (who am I kidding?) in more selections with straight win bets.

    130 I've never had a first festival race that I've been less enthused about. I've usually got too many fancies but I really have no strong gut feeling in this one. I had early bets on Melon and Bunk off Early but the one that I've spotted most recently is Highbridge ew at 16/1.

    210 I'm on an Altior lay for small stakes which will inevitably lose but I'm not someone who can watch a race without having a bet on it so I'm on two ew without the fav at 11/2 and 5/1 Cloudy Dream and Royal Caviar

    250 Noble Endeavour and a decent ew price at 25/1 A Good Skin

    330 All three JP horses for me. I'd like to see My Tent or Yours do the business (and not just because of the 33/1)

    410 Lay of VV Mag. Backed Jer's Girl and Lifeboat Mona and a much more speculative Colin's Sister ew at 28/1. I was at Chepstow on the opening day of the jumps season and it impressed me then and I wondered if it was going to be one of those that would be good enough to get to the Festival. It might well bomb but it's my biggest bet in the race, despite the price. I may try to lay some off at 10s in running.

    450 This is one of those races that I've got to the day and realised that I've backed too many horses lol. Anyway, it is what it is and I'm on Champers on Ice, Arpege D'Alene, Edwulf and Beware the Bear. Oh well.

    530 Foxtail Hill and Two Taffs (which, along with Tully East appears to be the one for pre-day money). Each way bet on Double W's at 20/1

    I've probably missed something but good luck to all
  11. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,221
    1.30 Bunk Off Early
    2.10 Ordinary World (ew)
    2.50 Singlefarmpayment
    3.30 Brainpower / Footpad (ew)
    4.10 Colins Sister (ew)
    4.50 A Genie in Abottle
    5.30 Powersbomb (ew)

    I've also backed Melon in the first but have doubled it up with Uknowwhatimeanharry later on in the week.
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,865

    Good luck mate. I've been checking the odds almost daily and seen Singlefarmpayment and A genie in a bottle at the head of their markets but just not fancied them. You usually have a better Cheltenham week than I do so I'm starting the day off with a bit of a panic already:lol
  13. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

    Messages:
    3,575
    1.30 MAGNA CARTOR - Plenty to find, but top price of 250/1 does appeal.

    2.10 ORDINARY WORLD - Sorry Kegs, but again a price thing as 50's looks a shade big.

    2.50 THEATRE GUIDE - Might be weighted out of it, but EW appeal at 33's.

    4.10 BRIERY QUEEN - Has progressed nicely, though will need to improve again or will need a few to under - perform. Could not rule out a strong showing at 50's.

    5.30 KILLINEY COURT - 2 from 2 for the stable and Mikey Fogerty retains the ride. Comes here fresh and could easily get involved at 33's.
  14. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,865
    Colin's Sister a non runner today. Will run later in the week
  15. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,267
    1.30 BALLYANDY and RIVER WYLDE, and ELGIN and GLARING each way
    2.10 ALTIOR should win as long as he jumps around safely
    2.50 I've gone for A GOOD SKIN each way
    3.30 BRAIN POWER, and SCEAU ROYAL each way
    4.10 LIMINI, and ROCK ON THE MOOR each way
    4.50 ARPEGE D'ALENE
    5.30 FOXTAIL HILL
  16. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

    Messages:
    3,575
    4.50 - Derek O'Connor has served me well over the years, but can't have Edwulf at the price. Gone with the following 3 instead, all at EW prices -

    MARTELLO TOWER at 12's
    WHAT A MOMENT at 100's
    BALLYCROSS at 100's

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