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Double Chance

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by Korona, Aug 27, 2011.

  1. Korona

    Korona New Member

    Messages:
    19
    Hello everyone I want to proof a new system that I am working on.
    If I am in the wrong thread then no doubt someone will tell me.
    basically it is betting on outsiders but giving them a double chance.
    I am going to start with a bank of 200 and each bet will be 5

    Hearts v Hibs X or 2 @ 1.91
    Last 27 meetings at Tynecastle Hibs have got something in 50% of the games

    Rio Ave v Olhanense X or 2 @ 1.73
    Olhanense have a 100% record away to Rio Ave (even though they only played 2 games)

    Nacional v Benfica 1 or X @ 2.25
    Last 9 games at home Nacional have taken something from Benfica in 5 of them

    Vitoria Guimares v Beira mar X or 2 @ 1.91
    Since 1998 they have met 14 times and Beira mar have lost 4
  2. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    Good luck with this Mate :thumb

    I Like your thinking clap
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 4, 2020
  3. Korona

    Korona New Member

    Messages:
    19
    Thanks jtw :crossfingers that something goes right for me 2moro
  4. beamer

    beamer Moderator

    Messages:
    351
    All the best.

    Am I correct in thinking you are backing the outsider and draw, in effect laying the fav. Sorry if I haven't understood it fully but I am declining with age.

    Cheers beamer
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 4, 2020
  5. Korona

    Korona New Member

    Messages:
    19
    Yes you are right there beamer, nothing wrong with your age.
    Didn't think that way but must check the odds ...... don't usually think about laying, well sometimes but not with betfair
  6. Korona

    Korona New Member

    Messages:
    19
    Hearts v Hibs X or 2 @ 1.91
    Last 27 meetings at Tynecastle Hibs have got something in 50% of the games

    Rio Ave v Olhanense X or 2 @ 1.73
    Olhanense have a 100% record away to Rio Ave (even though they only played 2 games)

    Nacional v Benfica 1 or X @ 2.25
    Last 9 games at home Nacional have taken something from Benfica in 5 of them

    Vitoria Guimares v Beira mar X or 2 @ 1.91
    Since 1998 they have met 14 times and Beira mar have lost 4

    Hearts v Hibs 2-0 :frown
    Rio Ave v Olhanense 0-1clap
    Guimares v Beira Mar 0-3 clap

    Waiting on Nacional 2moro for a half decent start, maybe they can take Benfica as they could not beat Birmingham.
  7. Korona

    Korona New Member

    Messages:
    19
    Nacional v Benfica 0-2 :frown

    Olhanense and Beira Mar returned 18.20

    Bets 4
    Wins 2
    Bank 198.20
  8. Korona

    Korona New Member

    Messages:
    19
    Four for the weekend, few dodgy ones coming up.

    Morecambe v Crawley 1 or X @ 1.73
    Morecambe have a good non league record against Crawley

    Plymouth v Port Vale 1 or X @ 1.73
    Plymouth got a bad start to the season but, if there previous record against any team counted this is who they would want to play. Have beaten Port Vale in their last four outings.

    Villareal v Seville X or 2 @ 1.73
    The Villareal defence maybe still shell shocked from the hammering Barca gave them. last 22 fixtures Seville have got something 16 times.

    Pacos ferreira v Sporting Lisbon 1 or X @ 2.00
    Lisbon have had a poor start to the season so Pacos can continue there good home record against them.
  9. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    4,664
    Good luck with this,

    Not quite sure I understand your logic on some occasions though, it seems slightly contradictory at times. In the first week you seemed to be concentrating mainly on that precise fixture (i.e. played at the same venue, rather than all meeting between those two sides), whereas this week you seem to be taking all meetings, home or away, into account (or at least you do for the Villarreal and Port Vale games, not looked at the others).

    Also, how do you decide how far back you look in the H2H? Plymouth may have beaten Port Vale in their last 4, but go back a bit further and they've won 7 lost 7 in the last 14. Sevilla might have a good record overall against Villarreal, but at Villarreal's ground they've lost 3 of the last 4.

    Not intending to criticise, obviously it's your system and you're the one who determines the selections, just curious, that's all :thumb
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 7, 2020
  10. Korona

    Korona New Member

    Messages:
    19
    Curiosity sometimes solves a problem. Thanks rcgills for the comments and you are right about using the precise fixture.
    Debateable how many seasons to go back.for the h2h especially with the amount of transfers.......take Man C as an example.
    Any suggestions?

    For this weeks matches
    Morecambe have won 2 out of last 3 against Crawley.
    Plymouth have won last 2 at home to Port Vale
    Seville have got something away to Villareal in 6 of the last 11 (take your point of view on the Villareal home record):crossfingers
    pacos Ferreira have lost 3 out of the last 9 at home to Sporting.
  11. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    4,664
    Not sure what to suggest really, Jtw is probably the one to ask there, given the success of his H2H system.

    Personally I do take past meetings into account, but generally speaking I try not to attach that much importance to them (by which I mean I'd have to have other more convincing (to my mind) arguments in favour of backing a team, I'd be unlikely to consider a team solely based on H2H), certainly in the lower divisions. The top divisions normally have a reasonable amount of stability (barring situations like that at Man City), whereas at lower teams as you say there are so many comings and goings each season that you can potentially end up with 9 or 10 new players from one season to the next, in which case the past record isn't really going to have that much of an influence.

    Clubs' situations can often change too - just look at the cases of Crawley (now rich) and Plymouth (now broke) from your selections.
  12. Korona

    Korona New Member

    Messages:
    19
    Morecambe v Crawley 1 or X @ 1.73 6 - 0 clap

    Plymouth v Port Vale 1 or X @ 1.73 0 - 2 :embarassed
    Villareal v Seville X or 2 @ 1.73 2 - 2 clap

    Pacos Ferreira v Sporting Lisbon 1 or X @ 2.00 2 - 3 :embarassed

    Morecambe and Seville pay 17.30
    Another loss

    Bets 8
    Wins 4
    Bank 195.50
  13. Korona

    Korona New Member

    Messages:
    19
    Three games this weekend.

    Parma v Chievo X or 2 @ 1.8
    Chievo have managed something 5 out of the last 8 visits to Parma

    Seville v R.Sociedad X or 2 @ 2.38
    Sociedad have got results in 50% of last 10 games at Seville.

    Man U v Chelsea X or 2 @ 2.00
    Best record at Old Trafford recently. Chelsea have won 4 and drew 6 of the last 16 games at Manchester.