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English Premier League Betting 17th - 25th Feb

Discussion in 'British Football Betting' started by ONEDUNME, Feb 13, 2013.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,950
    English Premier League
    17 Feb 15:00 UK Liverpool v Swansea 4/7 3/1 9/2 + 103 Bets

    23 Feb 12:45 UK Fulham v Stoke 2.05 3.25 3.50
    23 Feb 15:00 UK Arsenal v Aston Villa 1.33 4.80 8.00
    23 Feb 15:00 UK Norwich v Everton 3.50 3.30 2.05
    23 Feb 15:00 UK QPR v Man Utd 6.00 4.00 1.50
    23 Feb 15:00 UK Reading v Wigan 2.37 3.30 2.80
    23 Feb 15:00 UK West Brom v Sunderland 2.05 3.25 3.50
    24 Feb 13:30 UK Man City v Chelsea 1.95 3.50 3.60
    24 Feb 13:30 UK Newcastle v Southampton 2.00 3.40 3.50
    25 Feb 20:00 UK West Ham v Tottenham 3.20 3.30 2.15
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,950
    Apologies for some of the weird odds. Because they are a week and a half away, not all bookies will have odds. I'll go through them and up normal odds.

    Edit - fuck it - they will have to do
  3. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,239
    Swansea will no doubt have one eye on the Capital One Cup final the next again weekend but they ate worth a 2nd look v Liverpool this weekend.
  4. thehandicapman

    thehandicapman New Member

    Messages:
    15
    Thanks for this one, i tend to only get involved in the prem betting wise so already looking at these games.
    A lot of bookies are yet to price up these games but there already seems to be a bit of value which might not stick about.

    Reading v wigan is priced up at a best price 1.7 for btts but looking at their relative home and away form, the 1.91 for the overs looks an attractive punt.
    Reading have had overs in 69% of their homes this season and have had overs in 70% of their last 10 homes (btts has been 70% on this period too)
    Wigan have also had overs in 69% of their aways this term and 8 out of their last 10 aways (btts was 6 out of 10th in the same period)
    Reading have been overs (and btts) in their last 6 overall and Wigan in their last 4

    Considering Reading have had only a single 1-1 draw at home this season and Wigan only one away, the overs looks worth the additional risk for the increased returns.

    The return match ended 3-2 to Wigan.

    Overs - 1.91 (for now) with bwin
  5. thehandicapman

    thehandicapman New Member

    Messages:
    15
    Looking at the way they dominate practically everyone at home, im never confident opposing Liverpool at Anfield but they are always far too short to back especially while they have a habit of fucking it up (west brom, villa)

    Swansea are a different team on their travels and will be very defensive - this team have only had 1 goal in the first halfs of their last 10 aways and there is a huge draw risk.

    0-0? 3-0? 0-1?

    AVOID!!! :)
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,950

    Dominate? Have you got the right team?

    There are ten teams who have picked up more points at home than they have. What's the word for what they do if Liverpool "dominate"
  7. thehandicapman

    thehandicapman New Member

    Messages:
    15
    How many of those 10 teams have had at least double the amount of shots and shots on target than their opponents in their last 10 homes?

    I'm no fan of Liverpool, trust me but if you can produce 10+ shots on target every time you play at home, youve got a chance.
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,950
    And if you're producing 10+ shots on target every time you play at home and still winning less than half of your matches then you're doing something very, very badly and you're not worth betting on.
  9. thehandicapman

    thehandicapman New Member

    Messages:
    15
    I totally agree!!
  10. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,883
    Fuck sake, dont agree with him THM, we'll never hear the end of it :)

    :thumb
  11. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,950
    I agree with Punter
    Punter likes this.
  12. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,516
    How's Sturridge Punt, is he still Injured?. I must admit he's had a bigger impact on Liverpool than I ever would have imagined, had he been playing against the Baggies with the chances Liverpool carved out I'm pretty sure the game would have been in the bag before West Brom scored their first.

    Like has been said though I'd still steer well clear, not only might Swansea have one eye on the cup but Liverpool have a long trip to Russia and back in the meantime where they play Zenit on Thursday night and Rodgers has mentioned putting out a strong team.
  13. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,516
    I don't like the look of any of these fixtures on the outrights tell the truth, Spurs maybe but the other's look either too short or too dodgy.
  14. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,950
    Two bets, both Sunday. City and Newcastle. Over odds on both so one to win for a small profit
  15. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,883
    My thoughts exactly regarding Sturridge, Slick. I think he'll be available for Swansea as he's inelligable for the Zenit game, as is Coutinho. I dont think there was anything wrong with him for the baggies game, i just think Rodgers felt he had to leave him out as he'd pulled out of the England game.

    Zenit will be a nightmare trip and i fear for anyone travelling there.
  16. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,516
    You'd think so ODM, good luck m8.
  17. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    Using my spreadsheet from my system thread, Liverpool are very unlikely to score three against Swansea (11% 3 Exactly, 16% 3 or more) So I wouldn't Think 3-0 isn't a possibility In fact I price under 2.5 at 1.7, and the five most likely scores are 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0, 0-1 followed by 2-1 so the 2.2 available looks very good value

    However I only give Liverpool a 49% chance of victory so would probably lay.
  18. thehandicapman

    thehandicapman New Member

    Messages:
    15
    That was a score i plucked out the air to illustrate i have no idea on this game and won't be getting involved.
    Good luck on your bets though and liking you poisson system!
  19. Frank Duvale

    Frank Duvale In it to win it

    Messages:
    12
    Guys, any ideas on the Arsenal vs Villa total score? I think Arsenal will win this one 1:0. But i'd like to hear your opinions, as well. Cheers
  20. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,950
    No answer Frank- everyone must be busy today.


    At least you got the result and the margin of victory right. nice one

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