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Glorious Goodwood 2015

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by Punter, Jul 28, 2015.

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  1. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    Lucky for you i've a week off and i've got all the winners for Glorious Goodwood.

    Tuesday

    3.10 Toormoor @ 2/1

    3.45 Ajman Bridge @ 15/2

    4.20 Lucky Beggar @ 7/1

    5.30 Volunteer Point @ 10/1

    E.W Lucky 15, BPG, Skybet.

    Toormoor was a must inclusion for me after being recently bought by Godolphin. They did the same with Buritino at Royal Ascot last month and he blitzed the field.

    I'm wondering if Ajman Bridge can be compensation for Adam Kirby who was booted off last weekends King George winner, Postponed. AB went off favourite in a field of 17 lto but met trouble in running, twice. Still only got beat just over 2 lengths.

    Lucky Beggar is just a fancy but Volunteer Point ran a cracker of a race 10 days ago and i've been lucky with Channon's horses at Goodwood in the past.
    Punter, Jul 28, 2015
    #1
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    Can't get away from Birchwood in the 235. Boring as it's fav but 3/1 looks a decent price on a horse that could be anything (as they say). Three wins from four races and a rating of 108, these are the type of horses I like to follow (albeit at a lower level than this one) where it's a case of how much it will improve from race to race versus how high a rating the handicapper puts on it from race to race.
    Mark Johnston is absolutely on fire but the handicapper has more data to base his rating on than Birchwood so, although you couldn't exactly say that it's "exposed" only being a 2 year old, I would have to side with the fav.

    Not the kind of race I like to bet on as some of these are going to go on to be class animals but I'll have small stakes on Birchwood at 3/1 and Welford each way at 12/1 (the other Johnston horse in the race)
    ONEDUNME, Jul 28, 2015
    #2
    Punter likes this.
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    345 race is one I wouldn't bet on being a 14 runner handicap with all but two of them being 16/1 and under. Quick route to the poor house these races are (especially with only 3 places for the each way). Oasis Fantasy is my idea of the winner (again, boring as it's fav).

    530 race - Look at the 3 year olds against older horses in handicaps like this one - that's my usual logic but as there are four of them in the 19 runners, that's not much of a narrowing down. Two of the four are the top two in the betting (strong steps and first time lucky) so that should be a guide but I'll go with the bigger priced Rembrandt (16/1 for four places). At a shorter price, Ifwecan ew at 8/1 would be my other choice (Mark Johnston again).

    Good luck Punt!
    ONEDUNME, Jul 28, 2015
    #3
    Punter likes this.
  4. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    Good luck to you too ODM :thumb

    I like the Mark Johnston calls, I nearly took his 16/1 chance, Fire Fighting in the first, last night.

    Sod it, i'm away to do it as a single right now.
    Punter, Jul 28, 2015
    #4
  5. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,911
    2.15

    I think NOBLE GIFT is overpriced here at 24.0 (Betfair, or 20/1 with books). This race usually goes to a horse finishing late and fast down the outer but the make-up of the pace in this race suggests my pick will get an easy lead from stall 2 and as he stays further than this, could prove hard to peg back. Callum Shepherd (7) has form figures of 1142 when partnering him so clearly knows how to ride him and is worth a go at these odds, especially as he goes well with cut and has solid course form (431, unlucky on both defeats).
    Going to have a saver on last year's winner SENNOCKIAN STAR at 11.0 as he's ideally placed to follow NOBLE GIFT through on the rail and should be thereabouts providing the pace doesn't collapse.
    Seen, Jul 28, 2015
    #5
  6. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,911
    NOBLE GIFT ran a great race to finish 4th, especially as he missed the break and had to be driven to get the lead.

    2.35
    BIRCHWOOD

    3.10
    AEOLUS
    ASCRIPTION

    3.45
    ASTRONEREUS
    BATTERSEA

    4.20
    CONFESSIONAL
    BOOM THE GROOM

    5.30
    STRONG STEPS
    VOLUNTEER POINT
    Seen, Jul 28, 2015
    #6
    Punter likes this.
  7. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    Nice one Seen.

    I'm gutted to have been on the wrong Cumani/Kirby horse.
    Punter, Jul 28, 2015
    #7
  8. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,911
    I was confident of having a nice-priced winner or two today but could only muster 3 placed efforts, so a bit of a disappointing start to the week, although thinking back I always struggle at this meeting :cry
    Seen, Jul 28, 2015
    #8
  9. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    Good luck for Day 2, fellas.

    Toormoor my only winner on day one and with what looks like some tough cards later i've found a poor way to pick some out, just for an interest bet..
    Singles and a small combo' on the Godolphin runners.

    2.35 Space Age
    3.10 Belardo/Night of Thunder
    3.45 Rouleau
    4.20 Promising Run
    4.55 Forest Maiden
    Punter, Jul 28, 2015
    #9
  10. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,911
    Good luck lads

    2.00 - ARAMIST
    Taking a chance with this one as his stamina is unproven, but he certainly shapes as if he will stay. Usually runs in snatches, becoming outpaced when the pace quickens before staying on again, but this marathon trip should suit as should the track which favours horses coming late and fast down the outer. Currently 23.0 on Betfair but I'll also be trying for monster odds in-running (right up to 1000.0 :crossfingers) as he is the type to go much bigger odds during the race due to his running style (has traded much bigger on all 5 wins).
    Seen, Jul 29, 2015
    #10
  11. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    I had 3 placed, not quite enough to get my stakes back but not the worst of days. I'm still in the game for Day 3.

    I really should leave these big fields alone but i've got to go with all 4 of Andrea Atzeni's rides tomorrow.

    3.10 Pallasator @ 10/1
    3.45 Lady Dragon @ 10/1
    4.20 Notary @ 2/1
    4.55 Jaadu @ 25/1

    Good luck all.
    Punter, Jul 29, 2015
    #11
  12. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,911
    ARAMIST had no chance in a farcical event - despite there being 5 confirmed front-runners in the field, amazingly none of them led and they allowed the winner to set his own slow pace and make all. Sometimes it's hard to understand how jockeys can be so stupid!
    Seen, Jul 29, 2015
    #12
  13. Steve_uk

    Steve_uk Well-Known Member BANNED

    Messages:
    3,421
    Of course it's now the Qatar Glorious Goodwood Festival named after Islamic benefactor Sheik al Joaan,but had he any pretensions about worming himself into the affections of the British Establishment I could have told him that in the conflict between old and new money old money always wins. In the dichotomy of the Islamic religion which may or may not be going through the death throes of Isis, Al -Shabaab and Wahhibism it jockeys for position with this more respectable personage as Islam makes incremental steps to ingratiate itself with the norms of Western civilization whilst the unsuspecting punter blinks up at the Sussex midday sun.
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2015
    Steve_uk, Jul 30, 2015
    #13
  14. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    British racing (and football come to that) is fucked without them Steve. Without them all we'd have left to gamble on would be FOTB's
    Punter, Jul 30, 2015
    #14
  15. Steve_uk

    Steve_uk Well-Known Member BANNED

    Messages:
    3,421
    What a stark choice faces the Britain of 2015,awkwardly sandwiched between Sheik Jooan,Frank Humer or the Fixed-odds Betting Terminals where daddy or mummy gambles away his/her daughter's dinner money on the crack cocaine of the betting industry.

    *edited (by Seen) to add bits in bold as Steve erroneously believes that only one gender of parent can have a gambling problem :thumb
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 30, 2015
    Steve_uk, Jul 30, 2015
    #15
  16. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    I've no idea who Frank Humer is, even after googling him?

    I've added a couple in the opening two races

    2.05 Awesome Power @ 7/1
    2.35 Tasleet @ 13/2

    EW Singles and an EW Double, BPG.
    Punter, Jul 30, 2015
    #16
  17. Steve_uk

    Steve_uk Well-Known Member BANNED

    Messages:
    3,421
    I thought he was frontman for Grand Metropolitan Hotels but I was also lead astray in corporate labyrinthine machinations which probably end up in the British Virgin Islands.
    Steve_uk, Jul 30, 2015
    #17
  18. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    ffs Steve, i've got to go google where the British Virgin Islands are now.

    2/1 & 25/1 winners today, a nice e.w bet on the 25/1 too. Small double also but this was a cracking day for me, bout bloody time too.
    Punter, Jul 30, 2015
    #18
  19. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545

    "Led astray", not "lead astray" Steve.

    Write out 100 lines "I must not be a pompous ass".
    ONEDUNME, Jul 30, 2015
    #19
  20. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,911

    Well done mate :thumb
    Seen, Jul 30, 2015
    #20
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