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Horse racing bets Saturday 24th March (inc' Lincoln Hcap discussion)

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by fcbasher, Mar 19, 2018.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    9,865
    The Spring Mile is a shit of a race to try to work out. As I said, I look at the form without the prices and i thought I'd stumbled across a horse that was worth an each way gamble with Taqdeer as it has been off the track for 692 days. I was amazed to find that it's 5/1 fav. Only raced three times but I was willing to have a crack at it at double figures - won't be backing it at 5/1 though.

    I liked the look of basher's Kynren (which was the whole reason for this thread's existence) in the Lincoln but that's not happening but it does have a good chance in this race. Not everyone is quoting a price but I should be able to get a 5pt ew bet on at 10/1 tomorrow

    I also like What's the Story at a less than exciting price. Will either go ew with the additional places if available or will go insurance bet on this one.

    Not a race to invest a lot of money on.
    fcbasher likes this.
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,865
    The 445 race is exactly the same. With no prices to go on, not even betfair, it's impossible to know what smart money is waiting out there to lump on the creatures that connections are expecting to do well. What little form there is would suggest that Proschiera and Voyager Blue should open up at the top of the market and my preference would be for the first of them based on the lean scraps of information available. Only an idiot would bet in this race so of course I'll be having a bet when the prices come out:).

    As I was looking at this race the name of David Menuisier jumped out at me. I saw a long interview with Criquette Head the other week and she was asked about up and coming trainers and she had nothing but praise for this bloke. He is the only French trainer in the UK so maybe that's no surprise but he may be worth looking at if he gets a good horse or two. I see he had a 16/1 winner in his recent efforts in France. He has two horses running this weekend, Chiave Di Volta in the 445 race and Psychotic on Sunday.

    I'll be having a look at those two but I'll be looking at the price for Proschiera in the 445 tomorrow
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,865
    Summery

    150 Perfect Pasture 10pt win9/2 and Ice Age 5pt ew 12/1

    225 Kynren 5pt ew 8/1 5 places (1/5 odds) sky and betway
    5pts ew What's the Story 5/1 with 4 places (plenty about)

    300 Zabeel Prince 15pt win 2/1, currently best price 13/8

    335 Ballard Down 14/1 available but taking 12/1 6 places 5pt ew
    Lord Glitters 5pt win 6/1

    Reserve will be Chelsea Lad (currently 18/1 6 places)

    445 Proschema 12 pt win 7/4 (w hill)
    fcbasher likes this.
  4. fcbasher

    fcbasher Member

    Messages:
    136
    Right , already got Ballard Down 16s 3pts ew,after looking at Seen's post ive added Addeybb 7.50 3pt win to my Lincoln bets.
    Of the other races i'll be going with some of ODM's picks,
    Zabbel Prince 2.50 2pts win
    Kyreen 7.50 2pts win
    Teruntum Star 8.00 2pts win

    God luck Guys
  5. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,267
    DONNCHA has to be an interesting runner, loves these big field handicaps, and has ran well on both previous outings at Doncaster - 2 years ago finishing a neck 2nd in the Spring Mile and then last year a close 3rd in this race. Lost his form afterwards but goes well fresh and gelded over the winter. Ground and draw should be fine and now 3lbs lower than last year.
  6. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,267
    Kegman likes this.
  7. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

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    2,221
    Great read guys and sorry for putting a jinx on some

    I've done some each ways today for a bit of interest

    2.25 Sands Chorus 60/1
    3.35 Chelsea Lad 18/1
    4.45 Chiave Di Volta 22/1
  8. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

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    2,221
    Sky are doing money back as a freebet in the 1.50 if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd
  9. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

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    3,575
    3.35 Doncaster - REPERCUSSION - 10lb rise makes life tough, but gonna get plenty of pace to aim at and looks fairly priced at 28's.

    4.35 Bangor - CLOONE LADY - Irish Point winner, who bypasses Bumpers and goes straight over hurdles. Certainly bred to be OK at 10's.

    4.55 Lingfield - READY - Better effort last time and well worth a crack at this trip at 20's.

    5.05 Thurles - MY FOREVER FRIEND - Top effort 2 ago, but then disappointed last time. Have to forgive him that, but first time cheekpieces could easily revive him at 20's.
  10. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

    Messages:
    3,575
    11.52 Durbanville - MARMALADE SKY - Nicely bred newcomer and whilst the stable's 3rd string, they often run better than the market expects. Small EW at 16's, in this 8 runner race.
  11. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

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    3,575
    3.15 Vaal - Gone with 3, all at prices in this competitive handicap -

    PICCADILLY SQUARE ( Remains in fair form and hoping the new trip can eke out a bit more at 12's )
    EXCLUSIVITY ( Lightly raced and only moderate form. Trainer & jockey's only runner today and has looked in need of the extra, so definite EW prospects at 25's )
    COOL FANTASY ( Fair record at the trip and every chance on best form. Been a while since said form has been shown however and this is reflected by the 40's on offer )
  12. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

    Messages:
    3,575
    4.10 Doncaster - The Brocklesby is usually informative if not profitable and have had a look for some potentially decent first season sires. Ended up with a shortlist of AL HEBAYED, HEERAAT and BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE and 3 BITJ's are entered here, so gone with all of them -

    CAREY STREET at 11's
    GEOGRAPHY TEACHER at 14's
    CLEVEDON at 25's
  13. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,267
    Using my big-field handicap system (TS within 11, RPR within 6) combined with historical stats, my shortlists for the Spring Mile and Lincoln are...

    2.25 - Spring Mile
    11/2 - ORIGINAL CHOICE
    25/1 - EXECUTIVE FORCE

    3.35 - Lincoln
    14/1 - BALLARD DOWN
    16/1 - DARK RED
    22/1 - DOLPHIN VISTA
    50/1 - KINGS GIFT
    33/1 - STAMP HILL

    Will do 10 cross doubles and then fc's and tricast's in the Lincoln in case of a miracle :p
  14. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

    Messages:
    3,575
    3.35 - Already with one, but added 3 more for a combination FC -

    BALLARD DOWN
    MITCHUM SWAGGER
    CHELSEA LAD
    REPERCUSSION
  15. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,267
    I've added DONNCHA too as I'll look a right mug if it wins and I'm not on.
  16. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,267
    Well I would have done had Coral not been massive fucking COWARDS :mad:

    upload_2018-3-24_15-8-3.png
  17. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

    Messages:
    3,575
    5.00 Newbury - HOTTER THAN HELL and WINGS OF DARKNESS - Pair of nicely bred debutantes and whilst it looks a tough Bumper, happy to go with this pair, both at 33's.
  18. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

    Messages:
    3,575
    7.15 Wolverhampton - Combination FC / TC with these -

    DARKEST LIGHT at 9's
    WILDE OSCAR at 9's
    GEETANJALI at 14's
  19. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

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    3,575
    9.15 Wolverhampton - NAVAJO GREY - Lightly raced 4yo, but not achieved much to date. Stable / seasonal debut last time again not inspiring, but bred to do much better and hopefully the trainer can eke some more out of him at 25's.
  20. fcbasher

    fcbasher Member

    Messages:
    136
    Not too shabby a day then ODM :)
    Your Zabeel Prince and with the help of Seen's post I managed to pick the Lincoln winner,or it could have been a bad day for me after losing on the football too.

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