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Horse racing "lottery" system

Discussion in 'The Glory Hole' started by ONEDUNME, Mar 23, 2018.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Out of a discussion about the Lincoln Handicap earlier in the week, I intend to prove that you can make a profit on horse racing without knowing the slightest thing about it. Oh yes, it really is that easy. The initial discussion is as follows in bold type..

    Here’s an interesting experiment for you, five random numbers, 5, 7, 11, 13 and 25.
    Without knowing the final line ups for Saturday’s race or obviously the other big sprint handicaps this season, what do u think the chances woild be if making a profit if you backed those five horse numbers at 2pts for win if under 10/1 and 1pt ew if 10/1 and over?

    Rediculous idea but I think you may be surprised. I’d like to know what odds anyone might give of being in overall profit at some stage during the season. If u think that 6 places are regularly offered on these races i reckon theres a good chance that you’d find yourself in the black if u shopped around for prices,


    There is no number 25 so what I'm going to stipulate is that the numbers I'm going to use are 5, 7, 11, 13 and then the next number that has a 5 or 7 in it until five horses are selected. I.e, tomorrow's Lincoln would therefore be 5, 7, 11, 13 and 15. If one of those became a non-runner, number 17 would take its place.

    Stakes are a maximum of 10 pts, being two on each horse , normally 2pt win if the initial price I select is under 10/1 and 1pt ew if 10/1 or over but thay may vary depending upon whether I have to use an alternative bookie at a lower price in order to get an additional place.
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    So let's kick off with the lincoln 335 Doncaster tomorrow

    5. Ballard Down 14/1 is available but I'm going for the 12/1 with 6 places (1/5 the odds) with Skybet and Coral
    7. Dolhphin Vista 33/1 available, again six places coral
    11.Kings Gift, 25/1 available for six places but double that for 5 so I'm going for 50/1 (1/5 odds) with paddy power and betfair
    13. Grey Britain 20/1 six places
    15. Repercussion same price as above.

    Reserve will be 17 Fire Brigade which will be a 2pt win if any of the above don't run.
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    225 Doncaster ~(Spring mile)

    5. Kings Pavilion 25/1 5 places paddy power
    7.Brilliant Vanguard 28/1 5 places PP
    11. Seduce Me 33/1 5 places Ladbrokes
    13.Moonlight Navigator 40/1 5 placed betfair
    15. Passtine 33/1 5 places lads pp and others


    Reserve number 17 Georgian Bay currently 40/1 5 places boylesports
  4. fcbasher

    fcbasher Member

    Messages:
    136
    Think it will probably throw some winners because of the amount of runners youll have running for you in each race,over a season??? Just big race h'caps,ODM?
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    That's the idea mate, yes. The idea is to stick with ones with at least 15 runners. It's just something that occurred to me a few years ago when I was putting on an Irish Lottery bet at the same time as looking at the racecard for the day. It occurred to me that I'd probably be more likely to get a winning forecast on a big race than I would of having a treble with five numbers on the lottery. True, the lottery pays 325/1 or something for a treble but, believe or not, the forecast for the Spring Mile at Doncaster last Saturday paid £626 with a 50/1 winner. These races regularly throw up 33/1 winners and ignoring the prices and sticking rigidly to the numbers selected is pretty much the only way you're going to be on some of them.

    I'm not happy with the staking system because the way it is at the moment means that I would need to hit one of those 50/1 winners more regularly than is likely so I will tinker with it for the future, possibly staking 12 points split over 5 horses for example. I'm also happy to leave out horses that I think are too short a price. This silly system is all about getting decent priced winners and placed horses .

    Anyway 20pts down after 2 races. I have to say that from the little bit of a dabble that I had with this with some of the big races over the last three years or so, it has been very rare not to have at least a placed horse over two races but that's the curse of raising a thread like this lol.
    fcbasher likes this.
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    A mile race today, gonna give it a go - 345 Newbury

    No
    5 Ballard Down 1pt ew 33/1 5 places
    7 Elusive Heights 40/1 1pt ew 6 places
    11 Afaak 2pt win 13/2
    13 Leader Writer 1pt ew 10/1 5 places
    15 Third Time Lucky 1pt ew 18/1

    Reserve (in case any of the above are non runners)
    17 Humbert 1pt ew 12/1 5places
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    150 Newmarket Saturday
    5 Examiner 14/1 2pt win
    7 Oasis Charm 10/1 2pt win
    11 Third Time Luky 11/1 2pt win
    13 Another Eclipse 12/1 2pt win
    15 Pactolus 1pt ew 28/1 Unibet (4 places)

    Dumb system
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Oasis Charm won, Third time Lucky 3rd. 10pts returned 22 pts.
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    400 ascot
    5 Firmament 14/1 1pt ew 6 places
    7 Shady Mccoy 40/1 pt ew 5 places
    11 Repercussion 22/1 1pt ew 6 places
    13 Get knotted 33/1 1pt ew 6 places
    15 Non runner
    17 Gilgamesh 22/1 2pt ew 5 places

    12pts staked
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    230 Ascot all 4 places
    5 Deia Glory 1pt ew 125/1
    7 Global Goddess 0.5 pts 250/1
    11 Kuriouis 3pt ew 12/1
    13 Luchador 1pt ew 125/1
    15 Second Generation 2pt ew 20/1
    17 Shades of blue 9/2 4pt win

    19pts staked


    500 Ascot This is exactly the kind of race that this shit could actually work in
    5 Master Merion 1pt ew 20/1 7 places
    7 Arcanada 1pt ew ew 40/1 7 places
    11 Hors de combat 1pt ew 45/1 7 places
    13 Saltonstall 4pt ew 10/1 5 places
    15 Firmament 3pt ew 14/1 7 places
    17 Repercussion 1pt ew 40/1 7 places

    22pts staked


    530 Ascot
    5 Arabian Coast 1pt ew 33/1 5 places
    7 Brother Bear 1pt ew 22/1 5 places
    11 Hemp Hemp Hurray 1pt ew 28/1 5 places
    13 Merlin Magic 1pt ew 40/1 5 places
    15 Society Power 4pt ew 9/1 5 places
    17 Symbolization 3pt ew 12/1 5 places

    22 pts staked
  11. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Society Power 2nd returning 11.2 points and Symbolization 4th at 14/1 returning 11.4 pts. Other races total losses

    With bookies offering up to 7 places today, time to go for it in the 500 Ascot

    5 First Contact 4pts ew 10/1 7 places
    7 Qaysar 2pt ew 25/1 7 places
    11 Completion 3pt ew 14/1 7 places
    13 outsider of all at over 100/1 so I'm going to sub this one
    15 As above
    17 Full Moon 2pt ew 40/1 7 places
    25 Maverick Officer 3pt ew 22/1 7 places
    27 Corrosive 12/1 3pt ew 7 places

    34 pts staked. I'll settle for a winner and three places:lol
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    500 Ascot today again 7 places

    5 Bachus 1pt ew 50/1
    7 Dreamfield 8pt win 11/4
    11 Danzeno 2pt ew 18/1
    13 Foolad 1pt ew 50/1
    15 Spring loaded 22/1 3pt ew
    17 Out Do 1pt ew 33/1

    24pts staked

    Just need the fav to win and a couple of places:)
  13. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    50/1 winner but that's not going to cover the losses on the week (although I think Society Power and Symbolisation both placed the other day). Ironically, I've done the 500 at Ascot on Thursday and Saturday and would have picked the winner had I done it yesterday :lol

    64.5pts returned, profit of 40.5 pts on the race

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