Discussion in 'Eurovision 2012 Betting' started by Gavster, Feb 11, 2012.
I've replaced the live version. There is a pause, but it is much shorter and more dramatic.
There was a time not so long ago where Iceland was considered one of the worst places to invest your money. How times have changed, this year there look to be few safer places.
I’ll curse myself a little for waiting until now for this one having talked about it a couple of months ago when the price was the right side of evens, but having seen the rehearsal it’s a case of better late than never.
In short this is a song that looks nailed on for a top ten finish with both televoters and juries – and the end result of that is a top ten place. Looking at the televoting first – Iceland are performing well in the fan polls this year, and both the song and staging are reasonably instant. It’s the type of song that is a little more ‘draw-proof’ than others, as unlike the straightforward ballads or up tempo dance numbers it’s unlike most of the other entries. That affords the top ten punt a little more security.
While juries are a little more unpredictable, this ticks enough stereotypical jury boxes to suggest it shouldn’t have too much trouble cornering it’s fair share of votes. It’s well sung, well presented, there’s an instrument on stage(albeit slightly too dramatically played for my liking), it’s a duet, and a love song, of sorts.
An easy comparison is with Randajad for Estonia in 2009, which finished a comfortable 6th after a good showing in both the jury and televote. Both had similar staging, similarly prominent violins, similarly dramatic undertones. I’d give Never Forget a slight edge in that it is more instant than Randajad and builds to a more memorable finale – and as a result it’s doing far better in the pre-show polls than Estonia 09 did.
Enough to win? I’m unconvinced – the staging is probably to dark and the song not quite uplifting enough to get the mass support required. Winning songs tend to be far brighter, and the songs less ‘heavy’. Further to that, it may not get the full benefit of regional support given the strength of Scandinavian songs this year.
Nevertheless, I don’t see this as anywhere other than Top 10, and a thank-you to Boylesports for taking a good bit of money on this.
5pts Iceland Top 10 @ 10/11 with Boylesports
(bets on a 10pt scale)