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Latest Eurovision Odds

Discussion in 'Eurovision 2012 Betting' started by slick, Mar 3, 2012.

  1. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,445
    Outright - Eurovision Song Contest 2012
    22 May 20:00

    5.50 Sweden
    7.00 Russia
    9.00 Serbia
    10.00 Denmark
    11.00 Ireland
    11.00 Norway
    15.00 United Kingdom
    17.00 Germany
    21.00 Greece
    21.00 Cyprus
    21.00 Ukraine
    21.00 Turkey
    26.00 Iceland
    26.00 Romania
    26.00 Azerbaijan
    26.00 Italy
    34.00 Estonia
    34.00 Slovenia
    41.00 Hungary
    41.00 Spain
    51.00 Austria
    51.00 Israel
    51.00 Moldova
    51.00 Armenia
    51.00 Belarus
    51.00 Lithuania
    51.00 France
    67.00 Belgium
    67.00 Finland
    67.00 Switzerland
    67.00 Macedonia
    67.00 Bosnia & Herzegovina
    81.00 Croatia
    81.00 Slovakia
    101.00 Latvia
    101.00 Montenegro
    101.00 San Marino
    101.00 Bulgaria
    101 Albania
    101.00 Malta
    101.00 Holland
    101.00 Portugal
    101.00 Georgia

    Odds William Hill
  2. Archi

    Archi Member

    Messages:
    104
    I have no idea which of these odds is off, but a decent freeroll or sure win.

    'Nul points?'
    Yes: 11.0 @ SportingBet
    No: 1,25 @ Bwin

    ~12% sure win right there, or a freeroll for which ever you prefer :p
  3. Beanie

    Beanie Member

    Messages:
    157
    I'd suggest it's the 1.25 thats off. Any song that qualifies from the semis will score points in the final. That leaves the big 5 + Azerbaijan. Whether it be through friends guaranteeing atleast some return(such as Ireland/Malta to the UK, Austria to Germany etc) or the random jury spread, every song will get atleast something. Only in the 100% televote days was a 0 a realistic prospect I think. I'd have the price around 1.10 or less.
  4. Archi

    Archi Member

    Messages:
    104
    yeah, my thoughts exactly. 1.25 seems high.. There hasnt been 0 points in a while..
  5. Archi

    Archi Member

    Messages:
    104
    hehe, I tried to log-in into my VC account, and it was closed. Found this e-mail from last summer after eurovision

    "We are contacting you today to advise that a business decision has been taken by our Senior Traders and I must inform you that betting Account Number [XXXXXXX] has now been closed and no further business may be executed on your behalf. "

    No reason given why, but I did crush VC on eurovision betting, so I guess they didnt like that. Strange though. This has never happened to me before. Hope VC doesnt give out awesome odds, as it seems this decision wont be overturned :( Also, had some money in there. Sent them e-mail to get it back. Frustrating!
  6. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    I've also been booted by VC. And Eurobet, and Bet365, and Bet24 (well, the last two have limited me to single dollar bets). It sucks soooo bad.
  7. Archi

    Archi Member

    Messages:
    104
  8. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    Anyone know if Bluesquare is a "copy" of some other site, or if it's standalone?

    With "copy", I mean like Eurobet and Coral. Or Sportingbet and what'stheirname... 1X2bet?
  9. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    yep,888 sport
  10. Archi

    Archi Member

    Messages:
    104
    a few weeks ago PaddyPower gave 8.0 for Irelant NOT to qualify, which I thought is great value. It dropped to 6.0. But no Bwin is giving 7,5 for them not to qualify. I like those odds.. I mean, I assume one can always sell it away with a small profit if you get scared. @ betfair the odds seem to be around 1.25. Bwin seems to think that out of the countries they have listed Ireland is the most certain to qualify. Even more so than Greece for example. That is just off. 1.05 for them to qualify is ridiculous 8)

    Anyone else who likes the 7,5 not to qualify? Am I off with my estimations here? Someone?
  11. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    Thanks! I don't have an account there either, so it appears I'm clear then.
  12. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    They've lowered it to 5.00 now, which seems more in line. 7.50 was probably some value, yeah.
  13. Archi

    Archi Member

    Messages:
    104
    Bwin has lots of new bets, some head to heads and "will both qualify" bets. I think there is value in a few of them, and I'm betting small on all of these. Not big, since I dont like going big before rehearsals, but if I think there is value I need to take it, right? :p

    Iceland vs. Ireland: Iceland 1.75
    Turkey vs. Greece: Greece 1.72
    Will both Bosnia and Slovenia qualify for the final: Yes 1.8 (I know some people think Slovenia will not qualify, and Croatia will take its place. I'm not one of these people though. Bosnia is like 85% I think, and in my mind Slovenia is quite certain and therefore I like this bet.)
    How many points will the winning song receive? 260 or less: 2.15
    (Need to do some more thinking and calculations, but I think this is a good bet. Last year Azerbaijan got 221. There is a big difference there. And this year 42 countries, last year 43. Not a big difference but something. And this year people seem to think the quality of songs is very high, which would mean the points are divided more evenly. I'm one of these people, I think this is better than average year when it comes to the quality of the songs. Lena, which somewhat crushed got 246 points with 39 countries. that is close to 260 if there would have been 42 countries like this year. I know there is Rybak who walked away with it and broke all records, but this year it's not gonna be like that. Loreen does not have the same kind of following as Rybak had. I feel like this year we will have a rather close fight, and I'm putting a small bet on this as well. I think the only country that has a chance to make it over 260 is sweden, but since many nordic countries have decent songs I dont see it happening.)
  14. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Messages:
    261
    Thought these two markets over at Paddy Power were kind of interesting:

    Who will Ireland award maximum points to?

    Lithuania 15/8
    Sweden 10/3
    United Kingdom 9/2
    Russia 6/1
    Denmark 7/1
    Estonia 10/1
    Romania 20/1
    Spain 20/1
    Italy 22/1
    Germany 66/1
    Azerbaijan 66/1
    France 80/1

    Who will UK award maximum points to?

    Ireland 1/2
    Sweden 9/4
    Russia 9/1
    Greece 11/1
    Romania 12/1
    Turkey 12/1
    Italy 20/1
    Denmark 33/1
    Spain 33/1
    Azerbaijan 50/1
    Germany 50/1
    France 80/1

    The UK gave Jedward 12 points last year so yeah, odds-on is almost justified unless one of the other performers pick up support and every country weirdly singles out that one performer which sometimes happens.

    Why is Lithuania favourite to get Ireland's top marks though!? Coochy-coochy-betting-coup!?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2011
  15. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Messages:
    261
    UK's top 3: Sweden, Ireland & Spain.
    Ireland's top 3: Sweden, Germany & Estonia

    ...and Sweden run away with it.
  16. Steve_uk

    Steve_uk Well-Known Member BANNED

    Messages:
    3,421
    They certainly did,receiving a total of 372 points including 18 sets of douze points,15 points short of Alexander Rybak's record for "Fairytale" in 2009.
  17. stereoman

    stereoman Member

    Messages:
    261
    It seems to happen every other year that the favourite does indeed romp away with it but sometimes there is a genuine contest.

    Next year might be more competitive.

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