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Melodifestivalen 2012

Discussion in 'Eurovision 2012 Betting' started by Gavster, Nov 10, 2011.

  1. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    melodifestivalen_symbol.png The acts competing in this year's Melodifestivalen were announced today and are as follows:

    • Aldrig Aldrig (Niclas Lundin, Maria Marcus, Randy Goodrum)
    • Allting Blir Bra Igen (Michael Sideridis)
    • Baby Doll (Mårten Eriksson, Lina Eriksson, Susie Päivärinta)
    • Det Går För Långsamt (Anton Malmberg Hård af Segerstad, Niclas Lundin)
    • Don't Let Me Down (Lasse Holm, Lars "Dille" Diedricson)
    • Euphoria (Thomas G:son, Peter Boström)
    • Förlåt Mig (Mattias Andréasson)
    • Ge Aldrig Upp (Thomas Di Leva)
    • Goosebumps (Hanna Lindblad, Linda Sundblad, Tony Nilsson)
    • I Din Himmel (Sonja Aldén, Bobby Ljunggren, Peter Boström)
    • I Mina Drömmar (Nanna Svensdóttir, Thomas Cars)
    • I Want To Be Chris Isaak (This Is Just the Beginning) (The Moniker)
    • Jag Reser Mig Igen (Thomas G:son, Ted Ström)
    • Just A Little Bit (RedOne Team)
    • Land Of Broken Dreams (Thomas G:son, Thomas "Plec" Johansson)
    • Lovelight (Andreas Johnson, Peter Kvint)
    • Mirakel (Fredrik Andersson, Björn Ranelid)
    • Mystery (Pontus Hjelm)
    • Porslin (Björn Olsson, Martin Elisson)
    • På väg (Abalone Dots (Rebecka Hjukström, Sophia Hogman, Louise Holmer), Viktor Källgren)
    • Salt & Pepper (Lina Eriksson, Mårten Eriksson, Figge Boström)
    • Sanningen (Michael Clauss, Martin BjelkeSean)
    • Den Förste Banan (Sean Banan, Joakim Larsson, Hans Blomberg, Mårten Andersson)
    • Soldiers (Ulrik Munther, Johan Åberg, Linnea Deb, Joy Deb, David Jackson)
    • Stormande Hav (Kristian Lagerström, Johan Fjellström, Stina Engelbrecht, Jens Engelbrecht)
    • The Boy Can Dance (Figge Boström, Catrine Loqvist, Johan Lindman)
    • The Girl (Fredrik Kempe, Alexander Johnsson)
    • To The Sky (Fernando Fuentes, Tony Nilsson, Danny Saucedo, Peter Boström, Figge Boström)
    • Kyss Mig (Axel Algmark, Mattias Frändå, Jonathan Magnussen)
    • Why Am I Crying (Molly Sandén, Aleena Gibson, Windy Wagner)
    • Why Start A Fire (Lisa Miskovsky, Aleksander With, Bernt Rune Stray, Berent Philip Moe)
    • Youngblood (Fredrik Kempe, David Krüger)
  2. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    The one to watch, 'Just a Little Bit' with RedOne having some involvement.
  3. Rob44

    Rob44 Member

    hi gav, any online yet?
  4. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    Naaa! Not a chance! There's an embargo on the songs until a few days before the respective semi-final.
  5. Rob44

    Rob44 Member

    gav, are you guys going to have a forum on the escbet site or is the banter staying here?
  6. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    we'll be reviewing key songs on escbet, but main banter will remain here. escbet is blog only. But you can still comment like on sofabet. You'd obviously still be awake after reading the original post/article.
  7. Rob44

    Rob44 Member

    :lol i'm sure yours will be far more entertaining than sofabet.
  8. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    HEAT ONE: February 4th – Växjö (VIDA Arena)
    Loreen – Euphoria
    The Moniker – I Want To Be Chris Isaak (This Is Just the Beginning)
    Thorsten Flinck – Jag reser mig igen
    Dead By April – Mystery
    Abalone Dots – På väg
    Marie Serneholt – Salt & Pepper
    Sean Banan – Sean Den Förste Banan
    Afro Dite – The Boy Can Dance

    HEAT TWO: February 11th – Gothenburg (Scandinavium)
    Andreas Lundstedt – Aldrig
    Top Cats – Baby Doll
    Mimi Oh – Det går för långsamt
    Thomas Di Leva – Ge aldrig upp
    Sonja Alden – I din himmel
    Timoteij – Stormande hav
    David Lindgren – Shout It Out
    Ulrik Munther – Soldiers

    Heat 3 – Leksand, 18 February
    Mattias Andréasson – Förlåt mig
    Maria BenHajji – I mina drömmar
    Love Generation – Just A Little Bit
    Andreas Johnson – Lovelight
    Björn Ranelid feat. Sara Li – Mirakel
    Carolina Wallin Pérez – Sanningen
    Molly Sandén – Why Am I Crying
    Youngblood – Youngblood

    Heat 4 – Malmö, 25 February
    OPA – Allting blir bra igen
    Lotta Engberg & Christer Sjögren – Don’t Let Me Down
    Hanna Lindblad – Goosebumps
    Axel Algmark – Kyss mig
    Dynazty – Land of Broken Dreams
    Charlotte Perrelli – The Girl
    Danny Saucedo – Amazing
    Lisa Miskovsky – Why Start A Fire
  9. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

  10. Beanie

    Beanie Member

    Fantastic early work gav and the site is looking v good. Now that I'm on an X Factor detox and have about 3000% more free time if you have any ideas for articles give me a shout and I'll stick them together.
  11. Beanie

    Beanie Member

    PS will be interesting to see what Timoteij come up with. No doubt it will be along the same lines as Kom and as such much more suited to a Europop audience than a MF audience, and should offer some good value elsewhere.
  12. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    Well Beanie, I've viewed some of their post-2010 work and it's virtually the same, but with different lyrics. I guess like Rybak, they'll be forever typecast. Personally, unlike the bookies, I wouldn't have them as favourites to get to the final.

    Let's play spot the difference :eek:

    You also need to consider the below-par singing that'll lose them key votes given their position in the semi final. You've got an accomplished stage star and a very talented teen singer performing right after them in the running order - the latter already has a number one selling album. Saying that,Timoteij's first album also went to number one, but as I've mentioned, their song will most likely be a carbon copy of Kom.
  13. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    Last in the running order of heat 2 and available at evens to qualify for final over at escbet.

  14. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    So Squall, now you're back... what do you think of Sean Banan and Ulrik Munther?
  15. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    I unfortunately think Sean Banan is without chance to qualify directly. And while it's a weak heat, I don't see him going to Andra Chansen either.

    Ulrik Munther I actually considered myself at an early stage, but back then the odds were 2.50 and we didn't have the infoon his poor slot. Could very well be worth a punt still, though.
  16. Steve_uk

    Steve_uk Well-Known Member BANNED

    I thought they might go with Ulrik Munther,this curiously talented creature who looks like he's just been unsuckled from his mother's milk..a repeat of the 1986 Sandra Kim contest maybe..
  17. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    You can hear snippets from heat 1 here:


    Good news for the other artists: no winner to be seen in this heat... my thoughts:

    1. Sean Banan

    Perhaps not so without chance as I first throught; he might squeak into the top5 for the second round of voting. I'd be amazed if he qualified directly though, even with an action packed staging.

    2. Albalone Dots

    My dark horse of this heat. Obviously being drawn as second with a slow song is nothing short of a catastrophe, but they can comfort themselves slightly with the fact that the Swedish voting system (two rounds, three are eliminated from the first one) slightly lessens the impact of the draw.
    As for the song, it's hard to judge its catchyness by the one-minute snippet - it might be lacking there. But the genre is great: ethnic has performed well in both Sweden and Norway the last couple of years, and well-song low key ballad-ish songs also.

    This one is available at crazy 25.00 with Nordicbet - or should I said were, they pulled the marked after I maxed my bet there. Good play at anything above 10.00 though I'd say... or amI missing something here, with the sky-high odds?

    3. The Moniker

    Simply put: this isn't at all like his song last year. Will he as an artist be popular enough to pull through? My guess is no. Top five, but no direct qualification.

    4. Afro-dite

    Blast fromthe past... boring disco, with wich they won MF ten years ago. I do think the taste has changed since then, but don't count out nostalgia. Second chance?

    5. Dead by April

    Sweden has no problem sending rock acts to the finals, but this, with growling and all... I think it might be too much for the general public to stomach. Another SC-candidate.

    6. Marie Serneholt

    Shitty bubblegum pop won't do well, despite name fame and good draw. Bottom three.

    7. Thorsten Flinck

    Weeeell... he' quite the characted. I don't think it'll be enough to avoid bottom three, though.

    8. Loreen

    Well deserved heat fave. But, is the song really better than last year's, which only managed to take her to SC (albeit with nuch worse draw and better competition)? Personally, I'd say no, but then again I have only heard the last minute. This information assymmetry really sucks, and must be taken into account (would be funto watch the rehearsals). I'm not backing her at the 1.50 that NBis offering now, at least.

    Good luck!
  18. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    All odds above are to qualify (top 2). And remember, Abalone Dots are a looong shot (which I don't nomally play in these events). But here goes :)
  19. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Some interesting disparities in odds between the different bookies, with SvS being thee odd one, mainly. They have The Moniker as high as 5.50 and Dead by April just below 2.00, rounding off with Loreen as mega fave at 1.28. Other bookies have quite different odds, besure to shop around.
  20. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    After discovering that SvS carries both H2H and odds for Second Chance as well, these are now my plays for saturday:

    Abalone Dots top2: 0.5pts @ 25.00 (looooong shot, I know)
    Abalone Dots 3-4: 0.5pts @7.00
    Abalone Dots H2H Torsten Flinck: 1pt @ 3.17 (wtf. am I decieveing myself or what's up, really?)
    Afro-Dite 3-4: 1pt @ 4.15 (really hard to judge, but feels like a SC song)
    Afro-Dite H2H Marie Serneholt: 1pt @ 1.91 (wish I simply could bet Serneholt for bottom 3...)

    So there you have it. Mind you, my last Melodifestivalen last year was a losing affair, so don't take the above too seriously :)