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Norway - MGP 2012

Discussion in 'Eurovision 2012 Betting' started by squallsquall, Jan 28, 2012.

  1. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    flag_norway.png This post will unfortunately be horribly anemic, since I'm sitting with only my horrible iPad atm (a kingdom for a keyboard and a decent processor). But anyways:

    Three semis this year, one of which has already taken place. Three out of eight participants qualify for the finals. Read more here:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest_2012
    All songs curntly available on YouTube! Perhaps someone with a computer can compile a link list :)

    Some short comments for Heat 2 tonight:

    Plumbo with their slightly nationalistic "Ola Nordmann" is a sure-fire qualifier. It's catchy and sticks out in s sea of super-bland pop. Also has a good starting pos. Available To qualify @1.25 with Bet24. Personally I've maxed out there, as well as @1.20 with Betsafe and @1.15 with Nordicbet. Yes, it's that safe... I'd gladly back it to win the heat @1.80 or thereabouts, if it was available.

    Rikke Lie sings "Another Heartache", a traditinally bombastic solo performance. No hit by any means, and could be struggling at 4th pos. But the heat is weak (apart from Plumbo), and the archetype was implemented by two of the three qualifiers in heat 1. @6.00 with Bet24 it's an absolute steal - I'd say she's about even to make it.

    Last performers have a very strong record in MGP. I'm counting on that to push Rikke Norman to qualify with her far-from-amazing unz-electro-dance-pop song "Shapeshifter". A lot of worse songs in this heat, and she was popular last year (albeit in a duo and in a completely different archetype). I'm backing her @2.45 with Nordicbet.


    Disclaimer: I'm not from Norway, and I don't have a clue what individual artists are popular there. I do have a pretty good grasp of the tastes though, and had very good results in betting MGP last year. Might of course have been variance - it was my first year with MGP.
  2. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

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    565
    Welcome back Squall. About time you showed up! Must say, I found it hard to get motivated for MGP after listening to some of the songs, hence why you're the first to talk about it. You got any thoughts on a potential winner, as they're usually place in the third semi final?

    edit: I actually prefer Minnie Oh's song :thinking
  3. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    Agreed, the MGP entries this year are very underwhelming. Tooji might be able to finish well in ESC, but then he has to beat Plumbo in MGP first...

    I find Minnie Oh a little too forgettable for MGP, and add to that that Norwegian viewers don't much seem to appreciate electropop/-dance (making by bet on Rikke Norman very risky also). But she obviously has an excellent starting pos and her odds are below even, so I'm not ruling anything out there.
  4. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    The last semi was a bit of a surprise in that Tooji lost to Bobby Bare's country. I had a smallish bet on Tooji to Q @1.55 and while that never was in any danger, I had expected him to finish first in another weak heat. Poor starting pos can't really explain it all either, as Bobb Bare was third to perform. I guess the song lacks quite that punch that "Popular" (with Saade, they share the team behind) had last year. For one thing, I don't quite like the split-up chorus - therer's nothing obvious to "hum" afterwards.


    For the finals, I fully expect Plumbo to win it big. Juries will likely slaughter it, but their impact is too small to make a big difference (unless televoting is down immensely).

    The only realistic contender I see is 16 yo Nora Foss Al-Jabari (name from memory, probably wrong) and her beatuifully sung (if boring) ballad. It has a late enough position, and will likely see jury support. However, it's been reported that her two performances in her semi varied wildly in vocal quality, so if she gets nervous she might blow it and miss second.

    Then it gets harder, but my guess is that positions 3-5 will be taken by Tooji, Bobby Bare and Tommy Fredvang (in no particular order).

    Tooji has pretty low odds with many bookies, but I just don't see it happening as he lost out to Bobby Bare the first time around and this time is in an even worse starting order, relatively speaking. Bobby Bare was a bit of a shocker and isn't to be counted out completely - it's very hard to judge new genres in this context. Good starting pos too! The best pos was awarded to Tommy Fredvang though, who finished second only to Plumbo from a weak pos in their heat. Personally I figure the song bland, but it's not me voting :)

    If forced to give a finishing order I'd guess:

    1. Plumbo
    2. Nora Foss Al-Jabari
    3. Tommy Fredvang
    4. Bobby Bare
    5. Tooji

    I'd be surprised to see any other entries reach the top 3.


    What do you guys think?
  5. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    Some more info: the four most popular acts will sing again in a new random order. Then a second round of voting begins, with the vote count reset.

    This could help Tooji - if he manages to reach top 4! Tommy is the obvious loser, since he was last in the original order.
  6. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

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    565
    I guess this is the insurance policy for the selection team. Anything but Plumbo.

    And with that news, I'm happy with my Tooji & Nora bets. :crossfingers
  7. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    How you you mean this works against Plumbo? They had a kind of poor position, and I assume they'll be happy to perform again... on the other hand, the other songs might benefit more from repetition.
  8. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    Messages:
    565
    Well looking at it, if it goes to a second heat, the producers have the chance of positioning their favourite act last in the running order. They'll most likely send Plumbo out first. If they don't, they're stupid and deserve to bow out of eurovision for a second consecutive year.
  9. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    Although with only four acts in the "golden final", I'm not sure how much an impact it has to go first or last... Guess we'll see.

    I've backed Plumbo @1.60-1.65. If Nora wins, I'll just break even.
  10. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    Messages:
    565
    Nora Foss Al-Jabari leading the vote
  11. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    Messages:
    565
    Now Tooji! Come on!!! Time to go to the bank!
  12. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

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    106
    Wow! Congrats Gav, major success in tipping both Winner and runner-up!

    As for me, I'm thankful for my Nora Foss top4 bet, that saved the MGP final from being a catasprophe for me. Still bad though, and I'm dumbfounded by the entry having crushed both iTunes and YouTube stats not Only miss out, but finish 4th! Back to the drawing board...
  13. Gavster

    Gavster Novelty & Proud

    Messages:
    565
    The super final voting really helped. This was the moment where the vote was thankfully taken from the hands of the tasteless Norwegian population.

    Each none-super final act voted, so with musical professionals voting, it ensured the best song won for Eurovision.

    I'll be jotting this down for next year too!
  14. Beanie

    Beanie Member

    Messages:
    158
    Hmmm, good effort I think. Instant impact, the beat a bit more modern than the usual Eurovision fare, but with a Europop chorus to tick that box too.

    Best entry I've seen so far - I think the judges might go for this. The song type lends itself to a very strong stage show too...
  15. squallsquall

    squallsquall Member

    Messages:
    106
    Hm, this I don't quite understand. Did I miss a part of the voting mechanics?

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