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Pay in May - 2014

Discussion in 'The Glory Hole' started by Punter, May 20, 2013.

  1. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    I've not got a great record when it comes to Antepost betting so i'm going to try and improve on them in 2013/14 season. One of the ways I think I can do this is (apart from not making shit selections) is by not putting all my eggs in one basket as I have tended to do in the past. I'm going to spread my money about more and in more different markets.

    A maximum of £10 per week (unless needs be, to lock in a profit towards the end of the season) the main aim is to have returns in 12 months time. I'm going to keep it to just football markets that finish in May 2014. Whether there will be profit is another thing, but there will be returns.

    Wish me luck.

    PREMIERSHIP
    20/5/13 Relegation - Swansea £5 @ 8/1 Paddy Power
    20/5/13 Relegation - Southampton £5 @ 7/1 Skybet
  2. ThunderCelt

    ThunderCelt National League Punter

    Messages:
    1,527
    Good luck :crossfingers

    I'm beginning to think antepost may be the way to go. Hotspur may not have proved a profit, but I've been using his principles which look sensible.
  3. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    Cheers TC, tbh this thread was inspired by the way you went about your ante post picks last year. Backing a few in the same market at the right prices throughout the season. I'm not sure if my level stakes are the way to go but as I mentioned I can up them if need be in the later part of the season.
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,952
    Have you got a Betfair account Punt or is it the one that's self-excluded? Backing and laying through the season is the way to go. That way you get your money back to reinvest instead of ploughing more dosh in.
  5. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    Yes, its the one I self excluded from. I have to write off to them to open it back up, especially as I have some returns from my Blue Sq account.
    Betdaq's Purple Revolution is yet to kick in, they still don't cover enough markets and the lay prices are not what Betfairs can be.
    I need to sort it out as you're right with the backing and laying, it's the only way to go.
  6. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    PREMIERSHIP
    20/5/13 Relegation - Swansea £5 @ 8/1 Paddy Power
    20/5/13 Relegation - Southampton £5 @ 7/1 Skybet
    CONFERENCE
    26/5/13 Winner - Luton £5 @ 5/1 Betfred
    26/5/13 Winner - Lincoln City £2.50 EW @ 50/1 Betfred 1/4, 1,2,3
  7. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,530
    Why have you gone for Swansea Punt is Laudrup going?
    I thought he may have struggled but b4 they won the League cup they looked a pretty solid outfit playing some good football.
  8. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    I don't know if Laudrup is going or not Slick? I thought he'd be a strong contender for the Everton job but the way they've been backing Martinez the last few hours it looks like he wont be going there.

    I just think they're becoming a bit of a selling club and that they wont keep replacing these players. Ashley Williams looks certain to move on, they'll do well to keep hold of Michu too, as well as question marks over Laudrup.

    I think the prices on both teams taken so far are big and at some point during the season i'll be able to lay for my money back at much shorter odds (even on Betdaq), I can see both being around 5/2, 9/4 at some point.
  9. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    A few weeks to catch up on..

    PREMIERSHIP
    20/5/13 Relegation - Swansea £5 @ 8/1 Paddy Power
    20/5/13 Relegation - Southampton £5 @ 7/1 Skybet

    CHAMPIONSHIP
    15/6/13 Relegation - Yeovil £8 @ Evs Skybet
    15/6/13 Relegation - Wigan £2 @ 33/1 Paddy Power

    LEAGUE 2
    15/6/13 Winner - Portsmouth £4 @ 9/2 Bet Victor
    15/6/13 Winner - Bury £1 @ 40/1 Hills
    15/6/13 Promotion - Bury £2 @ 10/1 Hills
    15/6/13 Top 7 Finish - Bury £7 @ 7/2 Skybet

    CONFERENCE
    26/5/13 Winner - Luton £5 @ 5/1 Betfred
    26/5/13 Winner - Lincoln City £2.50 EW @ 50/1 Betfred 1/4, 1,2,3
    15/6/13 Top 5 Finish - Lincoln City £6 @ 6/1 Bet Victor
  10. ThunderCelt

    ThunderCelt National League Punter

    Messages:
    1,527
    Good luck :crossfingers

    I got on Bury to go down because of their financial problems, which they seem to have sorted now. At least it was only small and speculative!
  11. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    Cheers TC, yes it's looking a little bit more positive for them now.

    Nothing's interesting me in League one yet, I might have to go for a few season match bets there.
  12. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    I'm going to get myself in front by a couple of weeks, takes me to the 2nd week in July, for safety reasons :lookaround

    And it's the one you've all been waiting for :moon

    *drum roll*

    PREMIERSHIP
    20/5/13 Relegation - Swansea £5 @ 8/1 Paddy Power
    20/5/13 Relegation - Southampton £5 @ 7/1 Skybet
    16/6/13 Winner - Liverpool £20 @ 38.22 @ Betdaq

    CHAMPIONSHIP
    15/6/13 Relegation - Yeovil £8 @ Evs Skybet
    15/6/13 Relegation - Wigan £2 @ 33/1 Paddy Power

    LEAGUE 2
    15/6/13 Winner - Portsmouth £4 @ 9/2 Bet Victor
    15/6/13 Winner - Bury £1 @ 40/1 Hills
    15/6/13 Promotion - Bury £2 @ 10/1 Hills
    15/6/13 Top 7 Finish - Bury £7 @ 7/2 Skybet

    CONFERENCE
    26/5/13 Winner - Luton £5 @ 5/1 Betfred
    26/5/13 Winner - Lincoln City £2.50 EW @ 50/1 Betfred 1/4, 1,2,3
    15/6/13 Top 5 Finish - Lincoln City £6 @ 6/1 Bet Victor

    It's customary OK!!
  13. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,243
    I'm actually toying with backing Wigan for the Championship.
  14. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    It will be interesting to see who leaves the club and who comes in. Whelan's had his Premiership and FA Cup dream now and I question his future ambition/funding?

    Don't let me put you off Keg as I know nothing, I just have a few doubts about Wigan now and of the 3 relegated teams, they are the ones who'd be most likely to do a Wolves imo.
  15. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215

    I don't really want to intrude on your thread Punter so I may start a thread thats about the above quotes.

    (At the moment its very early on Sunday and Im not sure)

    Ill therefore keep the replies short.

    Thundercelt,I obviously appreciate what you said but actually I don't deserve any credit whatsoever.

    The principles you used were to a large extent the principles used by 1000s* of people each season backing (and then laying) on bet fair as ODM and Punter have alluded to.

    You have then made this YOUR OWN** by betting on ante post SINGLES and making an excellent 13%!!! (That really is a remarkable achievement and I will be going over your thread/bets to see how you did it.)

    I myself do NOT recommend betting ante post singles*** throughout the season(without laying on bet fair of course)

    But Thundercelt appears to have proven me wrong...which is why I will be following Punters bets so avidly.(And of course Thundercelts and indeed anyone else's on here if they are singles)

    The question is,Did TC win because of his excellent knowledge of that market and therefore spotting value(that most would have missed) or is this a good way to bet for ANYONE?

    But,furthermore, not only do I not deserve any credit for what TC did,what Ive NEVER understood(and this why I will probably be starting a thread)is WHY

    No-one on here even discusses ante post multiples when Wayne ably demonstrated their merits!!!!!!!!??????????



    One of the main advantages of betting ante post multiples is because there simply isn't enough money in betfair in most markets to back and lay throughout the season.

    Anyway...Im leaving it there for now.As I say,its really early on Sunday morning-must be getting old I guess to be up this bleeding' early on a Sunday!-so please forgive this ramble....

    The thing is this whole subject is obviously of supreme interest to me.


    Good Luck next season Punter


    * I say 1000s of people.The truth is Ive never understand how anyone can make any money doing this iF theres 1000s doing it due to lack of liquidity....so maybe its 100s or everyonefundamentally disagrees on who to back and lay and when!?

    ** Funnily enough Alan Alger,who I mentioned yesterday,is the ONLY tipster Ive ever seen who does this.ie he talks about having a portfolio of bets on a long-term market.The question is however ,what roi does he make from doing this.If its only say 8% there are better ways to bet.

    *** with obvious exceptions i.e. where theres a big price e.g. Borrussia Dortmund to win the Champions League at 28-1


    Er,looks like my short post was longer than Id expected-sorry
  16. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Er,I also meant to quote ODM above but somehow didn't
  17. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    Cheers Hotspur and good luck yourself.

    PREMIERSHIP
    20/5/13 Relegation - Swansea £5 @ 8/1 Paddy Power
    20/5/13 Relegation - Southampton £5 @ 7/1 Skybet
    16/6/13 Winner - Liverpool £20 @ 38.22 @ Betdaq
    25/7/13 Top 10 Finish - Sunderland £10 @ 3/1 Skybet
    25/7/13 Top Northeast Club (Hull, Newcastle, Sunderland), Sunderland £10 @ 15/8 Paddy Power

    CHAMPIONSHIP
    15/6/13 Relegation - Yeovil £8 @ Evs Skybet
    15/6/13 Relegation - Wigan £2 @ 33/1 Paddy Power
    25/7/13 Winner - QPR £5 EW @ 6/1 Skybet 1/4, 1,2,3

    LEAGUE 2
    15/6/13 Winner - Portsmouth £4 @ 9/2 Bet Victor
    15/6/13 Winner - Bury £1 @ 40/1 Hills
    15/6/13 Promotion - Bury £2 @ 10/1 Hills
    15/6/13 Top 7 Finish - Bury £7 @ 7/2 Skybet

    CONFERENCE
    26/5/13 Winner - Luton £5 @ 5/1 Betfred
    26/5/13 Winner - Lincoln City £2.50 EW @ 50/1 Betfred 1/4, 1,2,3
    15/6/13 Top 5 Finish - Lincoln City £6 @ 6/1 Bet Victor
  18. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,243
    You must have been smoking some strong shit Punt when you backed Liverpool to win the league :)
    Punter likes this.
  19. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,885
    What's red and bad for your teeth Kegs?...

    ...a house brick, now shut the fuck up!

    :) x

    I'm hoping to make a tenner minimum on that Liverpool bet. The start they had last season meant they spent the rest of the season chasing. I'm hoping they realise the importance of a decent start this season. If they come in to a lay price of 21 i'll lay £600 of the profit off, to make a tenner or over a ton should a miracle happen. I think the tenner is realistic though.
  20. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,530


    Lol, crossed my mind too.

    just looking at the dates of your bet's Punt, since the Wigan bet they have bought about 7 players including Grant Holt and the best odds I can see now is 31/1 so you got a bit of a bargain.

    Good luck with ure bet's m8.

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