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Premiership Relegation 2013/2014

Discussion in 'Football Betting' started by slick, Jun 21, 2013.

  1. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    14,279
    Relegation
    Crystal Palace 1.53
    Hull 1.67
    Cardiff 2.37
    Norwich 3.50
    Stoke 4.00
    Sunderland 6.00
    Fulham 7.00
    Southampton 7.00
    Aston Villa 8.00
    Swansea 8.00
    West Brom 8.00
    West Ham 9.00
    Newcastle 11.00
    Everton 26.00
    Liverpool 251.00
    Tottenham 251.00
    Arsenal 751.00
    Chelsea 2001.00
    Man City 2501.00
    Cunts 2501.00
  2. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    14,279
    Everton might be worth keeping an eye on should they start to sell their crown Jewels, Martinez certainly has the form.
  3. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

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    3,219
    Not a bad shout at a big price, Slick. same could be said of Hughes & Stoke, & think Albion & Newcastle worth a look as well
  4. slick

    slick Administrator

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    14,279
    Newcastle definitely as I can see them imploding once Pardew and Kinnear start getting at loggerheads, nothings more sure.
    Pardew will no doubt fcuk off with a nice payday and Kinnear take over the reins, him and the large foreign contingent of players Newcastle have will be a million miles apart, it has disaster written all over it.

    Ditto with Hughes and Stoke too, Stoke looked past their sell by date last yr and I doubt very much Hughes will be able to get more out of them than Pullis could, it's another QPR in the making.
  5. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

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    3,219
    What sets the alarm bells ringing about Stoke straight away is the u-turn on Pennant. I'd have been quite happy with Sparky at Villa when he left Fulham but I'm quite happy now.
    Obviously I'm biased, but I don't see Villa being involved. He's shopped early & his signings so far can can only be applauded after a hard season but one that will bring masses of experience....possibly excepting that bald Moroccan geezer who's name escapes me....Al Hamjadi? Would'nt be shocked to see Benteke go tbh, although obviously don't want to see it
  6. slick

    slick Administrator

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    14,279
    Swoops you don't want Hughes believe me, he the worst tactician I've ever seen at City, he'll get the same old backroom team of Bowen and Co in behind him and it's the same old 'same as' , Ericksson was very similar but at least Ericksson was a 'lucky manager', Hughes on the other hand must have walked under a lot of ladders since leaving Blackburn.
    I found he was just tactically inept and can very rarely turn a game around.

    Villa should do ok this year now lambert has had a season under his belt albeit a dodgey one but one where the board kept faith in him, more than anything he brought through a lot of Villas youth who will be a lot the wiser after the year they have just had and will respect the manager for giving them a chance.
    Villa will be ok this yr, I have a feeling Benteke will stay because it's always a risk paying a lot of money for a one season wonder, it's next season we'll see whether he's the real deal or not now defenders know what he's about.
  7. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    8,196
    Agree with what's been said about Newcastle, embarrassing. 12/1 for the drop, will surely be under half of that by November.
  8. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

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    2,215
    I don't like relegation markets(because a couple of surprise wins out of the blue can change everything) but I may well have to have a wee bet on Stoke because they play Palace at home 2nd game of the season.

    If they win,its expected so their price shouldn't go up.

    If they draw then there may be a small fall but if they lose not only will they be cut but the pressure will be on.
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,687

    The problem with that is that it's not a very active live market and there is unlikely to be enough liquidity on the exchanges for you to do anything with that information. If there was then you could lay for lower than you backed at. In reality, there will be a massive gap between the back and lay prices because it's not a market that people regularly visit. You will obviously put in the lay price that you want but teams like Hull, Sunderland, Fulham, Newcastle could easily be on no points after two games and, to me, it's unlikely that Stoke's price at 4 presents a back and lay opportunity.

    Saying all that, apart from the last game of the season blip, I think Fulham took about one point out of six or seven games at the end of the season and 7/1 presents more manouverability (sp?) for a possible lay later down the line. A bad end to the end of the season and, as I said, could have few points, if any, after two or three games.
  10. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

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    2,215
    You obviously know a lot about these markets as they relate to bet fair but I never back and lay on bet fair.

    I mean I will have Stoke in one of my accas.
  11. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,687
    Ah right. So you're only saying that the price is likely to be lower two or three games into the season - I see.
  12. janna

    janna New Member

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    4
    I agree with everybody. Crystal Palace is a sure bet. Let's wait and see after the first rounds!
  13. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

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    2,215

    Ive only just seen this.Have read it 3 times and have no idea whether youre being skeptical:unsure

    Its the use of the word "only" thats confusing me. And saying "2or 3 games into the season".And the "I see"

    (Apart from that its totally clear:))

    To me theres no "only" about it.And the fact that its 2 or 3 games is largely irrelevant-the odds reflect the number of games,as you know.


    Leave out "only" and "2 or 3 games" and that leaves,

    Im saying the price is likely to be lower.

    (But there will also be enormous pressure on Hughes if they lose and thus the price could stay lower for the whole season.
    But,if not,I should be able to hedge on other teams before it goes back up)
  14. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,687


    No I'm not being sceptical mate. I was reading too much into your original post and thinking that you were looking for an angle to bet early and hedge when the odds moved early in the season, whereas, all you were saying is that the price should probably be taken pre-season as it was likely to be shorter, later.

    Sorry if I confused. One of the drawbacks of being a sarcastic bastard is that sometimes people don't know when you're serious.

    :thumb
  15. Wayne

    Wayne Active Member

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    571
    Oy! :lol
    Punter likes this.
  16. slick

    slick Administrator

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    14,279
    lol, You've got eyes like a bleedin hawk.
    Punter likes this.
  17. slick

    slick Administrator

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    14,279
    Was watching the Fulham match on Monday night and thought the Fulham chairman looked familiar, just saw a picture of him on the BBC site and the penny dropped; he's a fcuking ringer for Ron Jeremy.....

    rj.jpg
  18. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,687
    No idea who you're on about Slick


    :wasnme
  19. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

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    3,219
    Was looking at various stuff for the management markets & had an idea. Writing this whilst keeping half an ear on Swansea/Spurs but that's not going to affect what I'm thinking whatever the result, neither is Albion/Everton regarding the info I'm looking at, & then there's over a weeks break due to the FA Cup.

    With the bottom half of the table so tight, there's obviously a large amount of '6-pointers', & with 16 games to go & a small break, I thought it was an idea to look at the correlation of remaining fixtures as, obviously, the breakdown of opponents is likely to be important (or absolutely fuck all to do with it :unsure)
    A lot depends whether you think both ends of the table will go to the wire, meaning fewer dead games. The bottom will, but will the top? If Man City continue to score 11.2 goals per game, probably not but I don't think it'll be over far before the end.
    That's the other end though, this is the bottom.
    There's only 6 points between the bottom 11, & only 3 between the bottom 7. I've always believed, as a Villa fan, that not enough teams can cover it to drop us in it, but it's certainly possible. Everyone still thinks Norwich are in trouble, including me, yet they're only 1 point behind Villa, & nobody but nobody's mentioning Hull, so there's a lot of potential disasters waiting to happen.

    For the purposes of this, I've divided the table into 3 parts. Yes, Man Utd aren't what they were but they're still Man Utd so the first part is the top 7. Newcastle are in the middle ground for me, not going to make any impact higher & with 36 points they're not getting dragged in as you won't need 40 with the amount of teams involved. I almost put S'oton in with the Toon, being 7 points clear of Villa, but with what's going on at the club the small potential of them going into freefall is there, & Pocchetinno might walk yet so I've kept them involved down below, they have after all only take 9 points from the last 33, making it a bottom 12.

    So, ignoring Newcastle altogether, the bottom 12's fixtures are divided into 4 columns. Home v bottom 12, away v bottom 12, home v top 7, away v top 7.

    S'oton 3, 6, 4, 2
    Villa 7, 3, 1, 4
    Hull 3, 7, 4, 1
    Norwich 3, 6, 4, 2
    Stoke 4, 6, 3, 2
    Swansea 7, 4, 1, 3 (not including today but Spurs just scored)
    Albion 4, 6, 4, 3
    Palace 4, 5, 4, 2
    Fulham 4, 5, 2, 4
    West Ham 5, 4, 3, 4
    Sunderland 7, 1, 1, 6
    Cardiff 6, 4, 1, 4

    The difference in games played is only a couple of sides don't have Newcastle to play so for these figures they've got an extra game, plus Albion haven't played yet this weekend.

    Things that jump out are: everyone has either 9 or 10 games against teams around them, except Sunderland who have only 8. In their favour is that 7 of them are at home but against that they've got 6 trips to the top 7. It is at least in their hands but you'd imagine they need to win 5 of those 7 to get anywhere near 36 points to give themselves a fighting chance.
    West Hams fate is likely to be decided in February, where after playing Chelsea they've got Swansea, Norwich & S'oton at home with Villa away. They need at least 7 points from those, which would put them on 25 with 11 to play. Any less than that & it looks a bit like Everest on top of K2 :unsure Also they play spurs & Man City last 2.
    Both Swansea & Villa have 7 home games against the bottom 12, meaning you'd think there'd be enough chances to get out. That's not as clear cut as it sounds as Villa are better away & have only 8 points at home, but you'd think that 3 wins & 2 draws from those 7 would do enough. Also Villa are better against better sides when they don't have to try & do much other than counter so the 4 away against the top 7 might produce the odd point. Play like last night & no problem :unsure I don't see it, but then I'm biased. Swansea's itinerary is very similar, the complication possibly being the Palace game is sraight after the Napoli double header. What's their record like after Europa games?
    Cardiff's fixtures are again very similar, but they need to find their feet & fast. Only 7 home games but 6 against the bottom 12? In their own hands but I fear for them.
    Stoke haven't got many home games against the others but they're always hard to beat at home so they could get a couple of draws against the bigger boys, & if Palace can continue their revival there's 13 from 15 games they can get something from. Can they keep it going? They're odds on to go but he's doing some job.
    I don't see Fulham getting much away no matter who they're playing & their GD is a train wreck. Their 6 home games are enormous, 4 against the bottom 12. 3 wins from 4 & a draw in the other? That means they still need an away win & 4 draws for 36?! Don't see it.
    Hull have 7 at home & have made signings, but only 3 at home v the bottom 12. Yes they've got some steel & might get a couple of home draws v the big boys but they need 2 wins from those 3 at home. Nick one away & they need 4 or 5 draws from somewhere. i don't see them going down & nobodys talking about them although I thought their price might be longer due to that. there's potential to get dragged in with their fixture list though.
    I've never really considered S'oton but with their problems they could gift a few points out to other sides. not a helpful fixture list but it'd need a Devon Loch, or a Paul Jewell's Wigan
    Norwich. as big as 9/2. To my mind that's fucking enormous. 7 home games but only 3 against the lower sides, bearing in mind they have Newcastle at home next so although I'm ignoring the Toon that fixtures massive. GD is bad so if they lose next up, they need 2 home wins from 3, plus 1 away & 4 draws for 36. That's a lot, they need something against the Toon. there's not a lot of faith in Hughton & he could be managing at 75 & still be seen as inexperienced :lol

    Swansea 2 down.

    Palace have got to keep it all going as you feel a crack & morale dropping & there's no way back, but they're giving themselves a chance. Norwich @ 9/2 is must bet in my eyes, & I think Fulham @ Evs will go with them. Then for me it's 1 of Sunderland (Evs to 6/4) West Ham (6/4) Cardiff (Evs & just below) & Palace.
    Palace are no value at all for me @ around 8/11 but they've got to keep doing it all right with no fuck ups. If I was going to stick my neck out I'd say Norwich, fulham & Cardiff
  20. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

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    3,219
    Forgot to add. Norwich's last 4 games? Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal......