Racing tips Saturday 21/07/12

Arnold Lane 245 Ascot

I'm not saying this is a guaranteed winner or anything but 12/1 is value for me. You can ignore its last two runs. Time before last was against horses much better than him and the last one the jockey fucked up massively by going for a gap that wasn't there under 3 furlongs out which caused him to check and be off the pace just as the race started in earnest. Not something that you will read in the write ups but if you watch the race, you'll see what I mean and I think this horse is better than that showing (Producer will also win a race soon on better ground than that day).

Hasn't won yet at a mile but has shown enough to suggest that it will do. In fairness to the jockey, its win at 7 furlongs at Chester suggests that it does need to be covered up and have something in front to aim at but the way Sam Hitchcott found trouble in a five runner race was still a complete joke in my eyes.

I can see that Arnold Lane is going to be a frustrating one to follow. 8f is a furlong beyond his best distance but wasn't run at a clip (judging by eye only, I haven't got the times) and it managed to find a couple of blind alleys but would have got through them it it had been a really good horse but difficult to see on this run whether it's been unlucky not to place or whether it's really just a bag of shit.

Will follow it next time it goes over 7 furlongs and take it from there.

Also, as I said, watch for producer next time on good ground.

You know I hate blowing my own trumpet but Producer did the business today.

Posted on Horsenap today

Arnold lane also returned a profit when coming second yesterday at 6/1 but hasn't bagged that win yet.