Discussion in 'Eurovision 2012 Betting' started by Gavster, Jan 25, 2012.
Updated to account for running order
I will concede that Russia will probably qualify,so that leaves 4 places.
Definite non-qualifiers in my opinion:Montenegro,San Marino
This leaves 4 from Greece,Cyprus,Latvia,Switzerland,Hungary,Finland,Albania,Austria,Moldova,Belgium.
It's tight this year,so I'm just going on personal favourites. I would put through Hungary,Latvia,Cyprus and Albania.
Apparently, they're embarking on a massive Eurovision tour now, so semi-final support should be in the bag. The juries really will loath this.
Will there be sufficient viewers left after Montenegro’s opener to hold a televote in this semi? Will the Romanian lass go the whole hog and have Eurovision’s first pornographic stage show? Will all the Russian grannies make it to the end of the show? These questions and more will be completely ignored in this preview of semi-final one, including an early stab at the ten who will progress.
I’ve heard more pleasant sounds coming from my work’s toilet after we’ve been out for a team lunch at the Curry Club than Montenegro’s opener. After a few of the surprising qualifiers last year we have to be a little careful about entirely counting songs out, as strange things can happen. However, those surprising results tend to come as a result of the jury vote, and this has nothing to appeal to the panels, and not enough friendly votes to save it. NON QUALIFIER.
2nd isn’t a good draw for Iceland, but that’s softened by following the mess of Montenegro. I’ve long loved this song and I think Iceland will finish top 3 with the juries, and perhaps top 5 with the televoters, translating into a potential top 3 spot in the semi. The draw for me diminishes the chances of winning the semi – as it’s not a song that has instant impact despite being very polished and so would need a late draw to get the televote required to win. Maybe. QUALIFIER
Likewise, going early doesn’t suit Greece, but at least it is sandwiched between a pair of slower songs. Unfortunately, I think that’s where the positives end – Iceland is a polished and well presented entry, whereas it’s more than likely that Greece will appear a little too frantic and with a few too many vocal wobbles to do well with juries. Nevertheless, just about a QUALIFIER
Having a couple of songs likely to qualify from the first three spells trouble for whatever follows, as the earlier numbers are typically less likely to make it. Let’s hope it’s not a middle of the road number then. Oh. During Latvia people are off filling up the kettle or doing whatever it is they put off in order to perv on Greece’s mildly pornographic stage show. It might have had some kind of a shout with the juries if the lyrics weren’t so terrible – as it is I can’t see where the votes are coming from. NON QUALIFIER
Normally, one of the few ballads in a generally up tempo semi would be looking at good qualification prospects – but I’m not sure that Albania takes advantage. It’s trumped by slightly more instant down tempo numbers both before and after, which leaves the jury vote or friendly votes as its most likely route to the final. They can count on a little of each, which all in all leaves this one right on the cut line – and it will drop above or below based on performance on the night. As it stands, a marginal NON QUALIFIER
If Romania could have picked a song to follow, it would probably have been Albania. It sticks out like a sore thumb, and if that accordion riff isn’t significantly memorable then the cleavage on show probably will be. A solid televote score and a smattering of jury points will see this one through – QUALIFIER.
A Swiss pop-rock number drawn midway through a semi would usually be complete fodder, but I actually fancy the chances of this. There’s very little treading on its toes, and it’s got more of a chart sound than almost anything else in the semi – it ends up sticking out just by being a vaguely normal, mainstream song in amongst some very zany efforts. Marginal QUALIFIER
Belgium’s ballad this year is one of the most unimaginative for a long while – far too sickly. It’s the same style as Austria last year, with all the positives such as a good vocal and big finish taken away. Bottom 3 of the televote looks likely, and the jury vote won’t be big enough to rescue it. NON QUALIFIER
By contrast Finland offers up a much more ‘authentic’ ballad. As a result I think this will prove infinitely more popular with the juries, and the repetitive nature of the song should secure just enough televotes to guide it to the top ten, despite the usual struggles of an own language ballad. QUALIFIER
In a zany semi, Israel is probably the zaniest of the lot. It has a good draw following the ballads, but if one of the pointers given to juries is to reward potentially commercial songs then this will find itself towards the bottom of the pile. It’s marmite enough to gather some televote support, but with France voting in semi 2 I can’t see this one appearing again on the Saturday night. NON QUALIFIER
San Marino – NON QUALIFIER
Bit of a Greece Mk 2 with La la love and they are likely to be fishing in the same pond. Fewer friendly votes, but a better draw for Cyprus and as much as I expect this to be quite messy on stage with very average vocals, given what comes from this point until the end of the show it seems just about memorable enough to make it. QUALIFIER
Wasn’t much of a fan of Denmark early on – and in terms of overall Eurovision winning potential I’m still not, but in this semi it’s a welcome injection of well performed normality. It sticks out well and in between Cyprus and Russia and will be endearing enough to corner a large chunk of jury votes. Not sure that she is good enough to put in a semi winning performance though – but if Russia struggle with the juries and Iceland don’t capture enough televotes then it might not have to. QUALIFIER
Given that the Eurovision limit of on stage performers is 6 and that those 6 spots are already taken up by 6 grannies with varying degrees of senility then Russia doesn’t have any scope for tidying their song up with some backing singers. As a result it’s likely to be a mess, but in terms of the televote it won’t matter as the endearing sight of a dementia-riddled octogenarian wondering where the f*** she is will have the Eurovision halfwits picking up the phone in their droves. Strong televote, poor jury vote, QUALIFIER
On all evidence so far Hungary is a bit of a disaster live, which is a shame as I think this one could sneak in otherwise. It has the potential to stand out well in this semi – and there is some room for manoeuvre. In the live final the lead singer was given almost no vocal help, but if they can add a couple of good backing singers, then it might just take advantage of a good draw. NON QUALIFIER at the moment.
Austria has no televote appeal, no jury appeal, and I’ve so little time for it that I’m listening to their 2011 entry again while writing this, rather than the actual song. NON QUALIFIER
As it stands Moldova’s stage show and vocals are looking pretty ropey, but the backing track and good draw should be enough to secure a big enough televote to get through. It’s a fairly accessible song, one that’s easy to get into when hearing for the first time. For me there’s room for only one of Israel and Moldova to go through, and as it stands this one has the spot fairly comfortably. QUALIFIER
As much as I disliked Lipstick, Waterline is light years behind it in terms of Eurovision potential. This type of song has been done and failed before, and it’s far less suitable to their vocals and performances than 2011 was. The draw and existing European fan base will see Ireland through, but not much more. QUALIFIER
So my current predicted finishing order – and it’s worth remembering that songs can change quite considerably between now and kick off – would be:
Bets wise, Iceland for a top 3 finish at anything around 2/1 is worth a second look. For qualification, Switzerland and particularly Finland(treading on Gav’s toes a little with that one) at odds against, and Israel not to qualify at evens or better.
I also dont think Israel will qualify. Probably close, but not quite enough though.
I was maybe a bit harsh on Greece, im not sure. It's certainly true that the televote is a lot more predictable/reliable than the jury vote, and as a result the songs like Russia and Greece that will rely more heavily on televote have a bit more certainty about them. I'm not convinced of top 3 though, if she is as ropey as I suspect she might be then they might not get the jury support required.
I tend to make the non-qualification bets earlier (not sure why - perhaps I'm more confident in my belief that some acts are beyong saving, than that others are beyond ruining) than the qualification bets. So far, at least 80% have been non-Q.
Regarding Slovakia though, she was considered pretty safe after the rehearsals as well, so waiting there didn't really help.
Its true that Kristina was solid after rehearsal as well, but she simply bombed when it mattered. I hope Jedward bombs, it would make me a happy camper this year 8)
What are these bets Squall? Bang them on bets placed
I even thought she was pretty safe after her semi performance
You make a good point squall - ultimately every jury in this semi has to award points to ten songs. Once you take into account the complete garbage of San Marino, Montenegro, Austria etc....then each song has very little to beat in order to pick up something.
That leaves three to come from the following:
I know selecting cyprus might be a bit controversial but it seems to have a decent running order and early momentum. my only fear is it will suffer from greece's superiority and/or forgotten with denmark following.
I think switzerland, belguim, finland and israel are hampered by the draw, with switzerland and belguim especially vulnerable due to lack of voting allies and diaspora.
Hungary and Austria are similarly handicapped by lack of voting allies but have a better draw.
Moldova based on where they are drawn I would normally put through automatically, but I can't help thinking this is avery weak entry quality wise and will be very much forgotten after the shenanigans of the 'special needs' twins.
I'm leaning towards a win for either Ireland or Denmark for this semi. as always though i'm happy for someone to change my mind as they did last year when i was very profitably persuaded to bet on the hobbit with the guitar, in orbit a la 2001:A Space Odyssey