Discussion in 'Eurovision 2012 Betting' started by Gavster, Jan 25, 2012.
Updated to account for the running order.
romania & bulgaria did not qualified?
Not sure which bit of that sentence to attack first
For clarification... Qualification hasn't taken place yet, but both Romania and Bulgaria are taking part, but in opposing semi finals.
I didnt find a special thread for Bulgaria so i write here.....The final for the Bulgarian song has just started !
Yes I'm enduring it now whilst watching the football. Not brilliant, I must say!
Sofi Marinovas song is for me the best one ....
Yeah she wins and she will represent Bulgaria on 26-th May !
I watched that video, was a worthy reward for my patients for watching such crap all night..... did he just 'black up' though? Sweet Jesus he did.
Some borderline entries here again,and difficult to judge. I have Sweden,Slovakia,Estonia,Serbia,Belarus,Slovenia,Norway and a weak Turkish entry as definite qualifiers. I've ruled out Macedonia,Malta and Portugal completely.From my next group I discarded Bulgaria,Croatia and Bosnia/Herzegovina. This leaves only two places out of a possible four marginal songs:Netherlands Joan,the Ukrainian Tina Turner,the Georgian Joker or Love is Blind Danny from Lithuania. After much soul-searching I've plumped for Ukraine and Lithuania,though after the Netherlands' disappointment last year I hope I'm wrong.
It's a brave man that bets against Bosnia, Steve. Tell me, do you place bets, because Bosnia not to qualify is available at over 4.0?
It's slow to get going,as she plays suspended from a rafter,whilst the mule traverses cobbled steps led by a suited local..I'm rather tired of these Mongolian nose flute entries,as Terry Wogan would call them,it still remains tuneless in my opinion and it's up against more lively competition with Netherlands Joan,Ukraine and Georgia,which I all have ahead of her.
Ok Steve, now you need to erase Netherlands from your mind. Do you read about diaspora, regional bloc voting and the influence of the running order?
Also, you didnt answer my question... do you bet on eurovision?
I don't really Gavster as I'm a compulsive sort of person,and if I go down that road I'd lose everything down to my last shirt. As for the bloc voting I thought it wasn't quite as prevalent last year,thinking of the Scandinavian countries and the Balkans in particular. I'd be sorry to see Joan out of it,even if her feathered war bonnet might be holding some false tresses in place. Admittedly I got it wrong last year,but the guy with the white suit was on course for qualification,just he had a deep rush of self-doubt and wandered off along the stage staring into space midway through the song.
Gavster, I assume the thick black line between Bulgaria and Slovenia is the advert break? If so, any idea why it is between songs 8 & 9 here and songs 9 & 10 in the other semi final??
I haven't added the advert breaks. The only dividing lines are those separating the first part of the semis from the second.
The ad breaks will have less significance this year due to the voting changes. The EBU have reverted back to old system of not opening the phone lines until all songs have been performed.
There are usually three breaks during semi-finals.
Two long breaks and a short intermission in the middle where one of the hosts provides us with an annoying oneliner gag.
The long breaks might be a little bit significant for televotes, as some casual viewers will switch channels during commercials and arrive a bit late back to the show.
I strongly believe, even though this has yet to be confirmed, that this year the two long breaks will be after Song no. 5 and after Song no. 14. That would be bad news for Portugal and Slovakia.
The short intermission will probably take place between 9 Slovenia and 10 Croatia.
although i've put 'deffo' i must admit i'm not as confident with my predictions on this one:
3 others to qualify from the following:
You have to think only one can qualify out of estonia and lithuania? i favour estonia but lithuania has the better draw and the showier number.
belarus have a much better song than previously but looks like it is hampered by the draw and static presentation.
the one in my deffo list that i'm not absoloutely sure about is slovenia. in terms of quality it should qualify but slovenia are the poor man of the balkans in term of local support and a poor draw makes it vulnerable. it's going to need jury help.
a hard one to predict is croatia. for my money it's the most sleep inducing of the songs this year... i mean boring with a capital B. it also follows slovenia and is likely to come off second best in a straight comparison for neutrals (also has anyone heard a live version of this yet?). but you can't ignore the level of friendly voters it will attract... i don't know? a hard one?
i wanted to put turkey into the borderlines but i'm guessing their diaspora will see them through. it only really it's ethno charm going for it.
i've put bosnia in the borderlines, but i can also see this one coming top 3. from my personal point of view i'd rather stuff my ears with iron filings but i can't help thinking it's position in the draw, jury friendly musical ability and vocal, and heavy friendly vote presence will make this a contender... hope i'm wrong
They failed last year. Although, they had an average song compounded by a below average stage show.