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System 52

J

jtw1

Member
This is from another forum whose regular tipster attempts to proof systems using some simple criteria.
System 52 was one of those which showed some decent profit , here's the final totals together with the criteria involved -

System 52: Unbeaten Horses

Rules:
1. Bet to win on any horse that has never been beaten in any race listed in its Racing Post horse history (including non-UK races and PTP).
2. If there are two or more qualifiers in a race there is no bet for that race.
3. Unraced horses are ignored.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:
5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:
It is never easy to assess the full potential of a horse that is yet to be beaten. The aim of this trial is to discover whether punters tend to underestimate these horses.

Results based on 5pt wins (200 bets)
Total stakes: 1000 pts
Total returns: 1265.02 pts
Profit +265.02 pts

Comment: Undoubtedly one of the most exciting trials so far. The 200 bets produced 62 winners (31%) and a further 52 placings meaning that 57% of the bets won or placed. The profit of 265 points from a total stake of 1000 points represented a 26.5% return.
It is clear that punters consistently underestimate the potential of these lightly-raced horses, particularly those from lower profile yards. The trial was based on SP returns so a significantly higher profit could be expected from early prices.

I think it could be worth trialling it for a few weeks
 
Here's today's qualifiers with best odds according to BetRescue

2.20 Newm - ENSURING 15.00

5.15 Newm - AJMAN BRIDGE 2.62

3.30 Red - COMINO 17.00

5.20 Font - DOING FINE 2.37

5.50 Font - BADGER WOOD 41.00

2.05 Asc - OUTER SPACE 6.50

Sunday
---------

2.35 Kel - ESTINAAD

3.25 Hunt - REFER
 
jtw1 said:
Here's today's qualifiers with best odds according to BetRescue

2.20 Newm - ENSURING 15.00 unp

5.15 Newm - AJMAN BRIDGE 2.62 2nd @ 2/1

3.30 Red - COMINO 17.00 unp

5.20 Font - DOING FINE 2.37 2nd @ 7/4

5.50 Font - BADGER WOOD 41.00 4th @ 25/1

2.05 Asc - OUTER SPACE 6.50 3rd @ 3/1

Sunday
---------

2.35 Kel - ESTINAAD 13/8

3.25 Hunt - REFER 5/6
Click to expand...
 
Sunday
---------

2.35 Kel - ESTINAAD 13/8 2nd @ 7/4

3.25 Hunt - REFER 5/6 2nd @ 8/11


Nothing on Monday

Tuesday - 3.30 Catt - KING OF MACEDON

5.40 Wolv - IMPROVISED
 
2.35 Newm - GREAT WHITE EAGLE

4.25 Newm - ALTHAKIRA

4.55 Newm - KINGSTON HILL

2.55 York - MUSHIR

3.25 Chep - SPOOKYDOOKY

6.10 Chep - COMTE D'ANJOU , JOE BUGG , MINELLA SCAMP , THOMAS BROWN.
 
jtw1 said:
2.35 Newm - GREAT WHITE EAGLE unp @ 2/1f

4.25 Newm - ALTHAKIRA 1st @ 5/1

4.55 Newm - KINGSTON HILL 1st @ 15/2

2.55 York - MUSHIR 1st @ 11/2

3.25 Chep - SPOOKYDOOKY unp @ 16/1

6.10 Chep - COMTE D'ANJOU , JOE BUGG , MINELLA SCAMP , THOMAS BROWN.
Click to expand...


WOW ! Just as i was starting to wonder about this one it finds 3 decent priced winners :naughty

If we take the original aim of the system , to find runner's under-estimated in the market because of just 1or 2 wins , and apply a set of rules eg, ignore those Favourite or under , say , 4/1 in the betting then it may well turn out to be a worthwhile test .
Let's see how the last race pans out....
 
6.10 Chep - COMTE D'ANJOU unp @ 14/1 , JOE BUGG unp @33/1 , MINELLA SCAMP unp @ 9/2 , THOMAS BROWN 4th @ 4/1

Sunday
---------

2.15 FFOS - TARA MUCK
 
That's the first week over and if i had placed 10pts on every selection , with a split stake if more than 1 selection in a race , we would be on what we started with

If i ignore those returned Fav and those over 20/1 then we have a profit of 80pts after 10 bets which produced 3 winners.
 
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