hotspur
Active Member
![unsure :unsure :unsure](/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/unsure.gif)
The aim of this thread is to try to 'prove' that trading long term markets is so easy that if you're not doing it you are missing out. (Or as I prefer to put it,a mug.)
But why would I want to encourage competition in markets I bet on?
Well the full answer to that would take too long to write but let me just give a couple of reasons,
1) The comment I received on gambling forums that bemused me more than any other (yes there was stiff competition but this won easily) was,
"He's trying to come across as a guru"
Now that comment in itself deserves a thread but the first thing it made me think was,
"Wow,if that's the attitude of gamblers then I don't see how anyone on a forum will ever learn how to really make money betting this way (without taking many years to learn) because surely no one who knows how to do it can effectively encourage others without appearing to be 'trying to come across as a guru'.Er,and apparently that's against the 'rules'.
And that was a big problem because ever since I discovered I could make money on long term markets and betting in accumulators I wondered what would happen if lots of people entered the market and started betting in the same way.
And ,never having been particularly motivated by money,I really wanted to find out.
Would it cause chaos? Would bookies have trouble enforcing their maximum payout limits since many people would be betting the same teams but without actually collaborating?
Would I still be able to make money in more competitive markets?
What % of people would be profitable ?
Edit And the point is that if I can show that beating the markets is easy then I can't be trying to come across as a guru because if I was I'd presumably want people to believe it's hard wouldnt I ?
2) People on this forum,rightly or wrongly,have made a big issue of the importance of humility,and accused me of arrogance.
And,among other things,that made me,for the very first time in my life,notice whether people -especially on gambling forums -were themselves humble.
And it turns out that there's very little true humility on gambling forums.(Something else that deserves a thread so I won't elaborate here)
But I will say that that's to be expected. After all anyone who bets for reasons other than entertainment believes that they are in a small minority who can consistently beat the crowd.
Why had I never previously cared whether someone was humble or arrogant?
Two reasons; because no one gains from being arrogant,
And of course because I'm not a woman.
Now obviously I don't care that gambling forums are full of people who aren't anywhere near as umble as they think they are.
But I have come to very much care about one particular group of arrogant people. And it's now my mission in life -in no small part thanks to you-to destroy their credibility!
I 'speak' of those people who insist that I don't have a clue what I'm talking about.......and who point out that they have degrees in maths or any subject that requires a lot of maths.
But it's a thankless task. Because ,conveniently enough for these people, the platforms they use to shut down debate don't really allow me to produce evidence to the contrary . (Threads really are a waste of time.* But that's for another thread ironically enough.)
Right now I'm still short of having the sort of overwhelming evidence I feel would be required to put these people firmly in their place but even when and if I finally obtain it the question will be how to use it.
Meanwhile this thread aims to try to show that long term markets arent as hard to beat as mathematicians assume.
BUT ,as I say,I literally just thought of this ,and I havnt thought through whether I will be able to successfully demonstrate easy trades without getting bored among other things.
Not to mention Sod's law of course.
Hopefully I can come up with the first trades soon.
* Yep,this thread too is probably a waste of time but then this is an exceedingly quiet week for football.
Last edited: