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The IDIOTS 'Guide'to Trading Long Term Markets.

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by hotspur, Feb 7, 2017.

  1. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    :unsureThis idea just occurred to me and I'm quite excited about it. (But it may well may turn out to be a damp squib.)

    The aim of this thread is to try to 'prove' that trading long term markets is so easy that if you're not doing it you are missing out. (Or as I prefer to put it,a mug.)

    But why would I want to encourage competition in markets I bet on?

    Well the full answer to that would take too long to write but let me just give a couple of reasons,

    1) The comment I received on gambling forums that bemused me more than any other (yes there was stiff competition but this won easily) was,

    "He's trying to come across as a guru"

    Now that comment in itself deserves a thread but the first thing it made me think was,

    "Wow,if that's the attitude of gamblers then I don't see how anyone on a forum will ever learn how to really make money betting this way (without taking many years to learn) because surely no one who knows how to do it can effectively encourage others without appearing to be 'trying to come across as a guru'.Er,and apparently that's against the 'rules'.

    And that was a big problem because ever since I discovered I could make money on long term markets and betting in accumulators I wondered what would happen if lots of people entered the market and started betting in the same way.
    And ,never having been particularly motivated by money,I really wanted to find out.

    Would it cause chaos? Would bookies have trouble enforcing their maximum payout limits since many people would be betting the same teams but without actually collaborating?

    Would I still be able to make money in more competitive markets?

    What % of people would be profitable ?


    Edit And the point is that if I can show that beating the markets is easy then I can't be trying to come across as a guru because if I was I'd presumably want people to believe it's hard wouldnt I ?


    2) People on this forum,rightly or wrongly,have made a big issue of the importance of humility,and accused me of arrogance.

    And,among other things,that made me,for the very first time in my life,notice whether people -especially on gambling forums -were themselves humble.

    And it turns out that there's very little true humility on gambling forums.(Something else that deserves a thread so I won't elaborate here)

    But I will say that that's to be expected. After all anyone who bets for reasons other than entertainment believes that they are in a small minority who can consistently beat the crowd.

    Why had I never previously cared whether someone was humble or arrogant?

    Two reasons; because no one gains from being arrogant,

    And of course because I'm not a woman.



    Now obviously I don't care that gambling forums are full of people who aren't anywhere near as umble as they think they are.

    But I have come to very much care about one particular group of arrogant people. And it's now my mission in life -in no small part thanks to you-to destroy their credibility!

    I 'speak' of those people who insist that I don't have a clue what I'm talking about.......and who point out that they have degrees in maths or any subject that requires a lot of maths.

    But it's a thankless task. Because ,conveniently enough for these people, the platforms they use to shut down debate don't really allow me to produce evidence to the contrary . (Threads really are a waste of time.* But that's for another thread ironically enough.)

    Right now I'm still short of having the sort of overwhelming evidence I feel would be required to put these people firmly in their place but even when and if I finally obtain it the question will be how to use it.

    Meanwhile this thread aims to try to show that long term markets arent as hard to beat as mathematicians assume.


    BUT ,as I say,I literally just thought of this ,and I havnt thought through whether I will be able to successfully demonstrate easy trades without getting bored among other things.

    Not to mention Sod's law of course.

    Hopefully I can come up with the first trades soon.

    * Yep,this thread too is probably a waste of time but then this is an exceedingly quiet week for football.
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2017
  2. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Let's start with something that really takes no knowledge whatsoever. Well apart from knowing how many teams get automatic promotion etc.

    Dagenham,who are second, are 7-2 to be promoted from the Nstional League. I will mostly be using bet 365 prices as their website is very easy to use.

    They have a chance of automatic promotion but according to bet 365 it's an admittedly slim chance as they are 14-1.* Now I think that may well be a value price but that's beyond the remit of this post.

    On the other hand betvic have Dagenham at 1-25 to be top 5 which should give you the confidence to believe that they have a very ,very good chance of being top 5. So you can't really go too far wrong -so long as your stakes are small -by betting them for promotion at 7-2 because it will be a 4 horse race in the playoffs.

    But on top of that 4 of their next 5 games are very winnable and their other game is at Lincoln. Of course they will be clear outsiders for the Lincoln game but but but....there's always a chance they could win it!

    One thing I'd like to point out is that despite this ,a better option to put in an accumulator in the promotion market right now are in fact Lincoln.

    But the reasons for that are beyond the remit of this thread.

    Another thing to take on board is that any sensible bet (with a view to trading )you do on long term markets is also providing you with a lot of entertainment.

    As a result of a £10 investment on Dagenham you now have an interest in their games and most of the games involving the top 6 quite posdibly until the end of the season!

    Sure,you may not actually watch any but nowadays watching programmes such as Gillette Soccer Saturday is a great way to enjoy your bets.

    Now that was really very simple but it's also something in which there's a high chance you won't find yourself in an advantageous position at any point.But an even lower chance that you won't find youself worse off either.

    But the point is to get you to look for other similar situations but where the leading team might not be quite as strong as Lincoln.

    For such situations occur regularly.

    Also ,many people use betfair to place such bets/trades but I'm going to stick to bookies for more reasons than one.

    * Yes of course you can also bet them to win but for a beginner this is the better option
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2017
  3. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Oh dear !

    Well that's a great way to start. In fact,according to betvic Dagenham are as big as 1-4 to be top 5!! Time I got some reading glasses perhaps.

    Well well. That's actually a value price I suspect. But of course you can't take advantage of it by betting singles and that's where accumulators come into their own.

    Hmmm. Well ok,if when you check the price on top 5 you see that there's a significant chance the selection won't even make top 5 then don't use it.

    So forget that one. I myself would have no problem betting the Daggers nor would anyone on here no doubt but it doesn't qualify under the remit of this thread.
  4. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    One of the easiest ways to trade is to take advantage of what happened about three weeks ago when the leading Championship scorer Marcus Gayle of Newcastle was injured.
    Because it wasn't a long term injury the bookies kept the market open and Chris ? Wood of Leeds soon made himself the man to bet on.
    Now I dont know when Gayle is coming back as I havnt checked but if he's still injured betting on Wood at 7-2 is the obvious move especially as Leeds play Bristol City and Cardiff at home and Ipswich away in their next three games while even if Gayle is back in a game or two Newcastle have some tough games coming up.But of course you'd bet Gayle as soon as he comes back,his price having gone up to hopefully evens from about 2-7 from memory.

    However the main thing is that you should always be on the lookout for top goal scorer markets where one of the top two in the betting is out for a while .

    In this case you should even be putting Wood in accumulators.

    Similarly,incredible as it may seem,the bookies don't change the odds on top goal scorer markets in January even when it's very likely a player is about to be sold.

    So you could have bet on the third favourite in league 2 ,a Doncaster player whose name escapes me ,at 7-2 when it was 80-90% certain second favourite Bogle was going to be sold -obviously you need to read sources such as NewsNow for latest club news to be aware-and have his price cut to 2-1 when Bogle was indeed sold without a ball being kicked.

    You could have bet Akinde the favourite as well but I think there was a chance he could go too and anyway betting the Donny play,the clear third favourite,was good enough.Especially with Donny playing so well.
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2017
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    I'm confused...

    "Now that was really very simple but it's also something in which there's a high chance you won't find yourself in an advantageous position at any point.But an even lower chance that you won't find youself worse off either."

    So what's the point of doing it then?
  6. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    The fact that they have four easy games coming up in the next five. But really the crucial game is the one v Lincoln of course.

    If they win that you should be able to bet on Lincoln at close to evens for promotion.

    But also if they get 10 points from their 4 easy games and draw at Lincoln you might also be able to bet on Lincoln at a better price for promotion than they currently are.

    It was meant to be an example with some upside but very little downside...but then I saw I'd misread betvics price to be top 5 :).
  7. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Every year hundreds of thousands of punters place preseason accumulators .

    But as far as I can tell probably less than 0.1 % put Basel in their accas.

    Yet Basel are so far ahead of the competition in Switzerland that you can almost certainly rely on them to win.

    Of course most people's other selections are in the win markets in England rendering this advice virtually useless.

    But eventually people will realise that betting on markets such as top 6 markets and on odds on shots in say 6 way accas is the best way to do a preseason accumulator.

    But ffs don't forget Basel.
  8. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,939
    I stopped reading after that.

    Good luck hotspur
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992

    How the fuck would you know that? I really am trying to take an interest in this thread but I have to say that you're not making it easy to do that.
  10. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    I havnt given any actual advice as to how to trade and that's why the word guide in the title is in single inverted commas,because this isn't really a guide but just some very simple tips that I'd expect most on here to know or to be able to work out if they spent just a few minutes thinking about it.

    And one of the reasons it couldn't really be a guide is because I certainly don't want to risk being accused of trying to come across as a guru.Or ,if I am accused,I want to be able to defend myself by pointing out it's all simple stuff and if I was 'trying to come across as a guru' I'd concentrate on the psychology of trading and also why betting on long term markets in multiples is a very complex subject,far more complex than betting on 90 minutes could ever be and how it is that accumulator bets that need not contain a single value element can possibly help you make money and that kind of thing.

    But a couple of years ago I was asked by a site owner to write a guide to antepost accumulators. The site owner was confident that she,yes she,could "flog hundreds of copies to her clients as this seems the sort of thing they could very well like".

    (I mentioned this woman a couple of years ago on Thundercelts Swedish antepost thread. She owns and writes for a site called LaybackandWin and is a lap dancer . But a very smart one.)

    But I refused. I said it was way too difficult to write a guide for people who'd never seen this in action.
    Instead I said that I could show your customers how I would bet a whole season and encourage them to have a go themselves.

    And then once they've tried this themselves they might well ask you for a guide. And I could probably give advice to people who are enthusiastic. But we never got further than that although seeing as I'm determined to spread this around I daresay there's a fair chance that some sort of guide will be produced. But it will be free at my end.


    And the thing is I'm going to give an example of the kind of thing Id put in such a guide/'guide'

    It's simple enough not to be guruish I very much believe/hope.


    Funnily enough I'm about to use the to be bottom of the Premiership market as a prime example of my advice and I've noticed that someone has begun a thread about thst very market which I hope will be very interesting.

    I'm not going to read it til I've said my piece but first I need a coffee......
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2017
  11. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Well first of ODM this thread is most definitely not aimed at the likes of you. So I really don't think there's going to be anything here to interest you at all!

    It's aimed at people* who have never placed a bet on an outright market except as a preseason acca!

    Obviously I dont know what % of people bet Basel in their preseason accas,ffs.

    That's my estimate based on the number of posts written by people over many years on many forums in the lead up to the start of the season in which they give their preseason accas.And others ,in giving their opinions,give away their own selections.

    I have never ever seen anyone even mention Basel.

    It's also based on Basels preseason odds. I strongly suspect that the main reason they go off at value every year is because hardly anyone touches them. If even 1 % stuck them in bets -well sensible bets - then they'd be cut to 1-4 at most before a ball was kicked.

    In my opinion.

    Anyone can feel free to believe that my opinion is rubbish but you know what,my opinion seems to make me money .

    * You will appreciate that I have no idea how many newbies hit on this site in a year.
  12. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Right so here's the piece of advice I might one day be sharing with a lap dancers clients,oo er.

    I see my job in this guide as to try to give people who are scared to place bets the confidence to look at just about any long term market and to be able to very quickly see the opportunity that market holds.

    Because all long term markets have opportunities. And even better than that,99% of all gamblers never see them or if they do they never bet them. (Where's the value they ask themselves,usually not being able to see the wood for the trees)

    The amazing thing is that spotting these opportunities is often so easy that your very first impression has a better than 50 % chance of being right ! Yes even as someone with little experience!


    And I'm going to put that to the test right now by showing you a current market (yes in an actual guide I couldn't give a live example but I could give lots of previous examples)

    This is the market on Bet 365 on Friday 10th February called 'To be Bottom of the Premiership (at the end of the season)

    After I give the prices I'm going to ask a question and I want you to give the first answer that comes to your mind. Do not think too hard about it,ok?

    Sunderland 7-4

    Hull 9-4

    C Palace 6-1

    Swansea 8-1

    Middlesbrough 8-1

    Leicester 12-1


    Here comes the question.....

    Let us split these teams into two groups-Hull and Sunderland as one group and the rest as another group.

    Which group would you rather bet on?


    tbc
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2017
  13. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Now I'm going to have to write something thst could well have ODM coming on here again and asking me how the fuck I know something and pointing out that if this keeps up he may well have to go back to reading other threads.

    (Because we all know that reading threads on forums can win you money.)

    So ,in an effort ,to prevent yet another discouraging post ,and in case I failed to make things clear from today's posts ,let me make a general point.

    If I hit my target this season-and I may not -but if I hit it,I intend to be going to a great deal of trouble ,a great deal of trouble (I've been watching too many Trump speeches clearly) to find as many people as possible who are willing to listen to everything I have to say on this subject.

    So,if what I have to say helps lots of people then I think that in a few years from now the likes of ODM could well notice the affect on the markets.

    And if it doesn't then perhaps it was all bollocks.

    But I'd ask why not just wait and see?



    Ok.

    It's my belief that over 50 % of all people who looked at the above market and didn't spend too much time thinking about it would have preferred to have bet on the group of 4 rather than the group of two.

    And it's my further belief that they would be right to bet on those teams.

    In fact I have little doubt that you should be betting them but how I come to have little doubt is beyond the remit of this thread.

    In fact I believe Leicester may have been cut recently as I though they were 16-1 so if so it's a slight pity but never mind.


    Now I'm actually not going to say anything more about this market on here and I may well not say anything on the other thread.

    I will just say to those who picked `Hull and `Sunderland ,don't worry about it. It will come. Trust me.


    And to those who picked the group of 4 I want you to try to work out why you think they are the best teams to bet on. Because so far you were using just instinct.
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2017
  14. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    I forgot the actual advice regarding the last posts.

    When you look at any long term market try to group teams according to their prices and then ask yourself which group you'd be happier to have on your side at that point.

    If you are not sure ,then and only then consult the league tables and the fixture list.
  15. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Ronaldo,Messi,Messi,Messi,Ronaldo,Ronaldo,Messi,Messi/Ronaldo/Neymar,Ronaldo,Messi?

    What does that represent you may be wondering?

    The top Champions League scorers from 2008 (done from memory so might be slightly wrong)

    So why aren't you betting on it every year?

    When I said I think people who don't bet on long term markets are missing out this was one of the markets I had at the forefront of my mind.

    Apart from making money you actually get to be able to have a vested interest in Real and Barca in their games,something that's very rare in betting as they are so rarely value.Not to mention an interest in Bayerns and occaisionally others games some of the time .

    Years ago bookies would suspend the market until a whole round of games had been completed .

    But for years now you could bet Ronaldo on a Tuesday, say, and then Messi on the Wednesady.


    The bookies are practically giving money away here .
  16. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    I mentioned groups earlier. One of the easiest ways to trade is to look for markets where

    there are two reasonably clear favourites (but where the favourite is at least 1-2)and the next

    in the betting is about 5-1 or more (this is ideally in a league with many games to go you understand
    ,although it's ok with fewer games).

    Edit The second favourite needs to be at least 7-4

    You then usually simply bet the same stake on the two favourites.

    Current examples would be Spurs and Man City in the market wout Chelsea @ 5-4 and 7-4

    and Huddersfield and Leeds in the market without Newcastle and Brighton. @7-4 and 3-1.

    However there's a strong argument for also betting Reading @ 9-2 in the latter case. In fact,yes,if the third favourite is very well positioned either do them immediately or as soon as they win a game (assuming they are still third favourites)


    Another current example is Sheffield United and Scunthorpe. 1-2 and 5-2


    Always be looking for situations like this and never be afraid to bet the top 2 in the betting. But don't do this with top scorer or relegation markets.


    Please note,and I should have made this clear but then I'm not expecting anyone to actually do any of these bets,these would all be for small stakes.


    The purpose of these bets is to get you used to betting on these markets. Once you have an interest in a market you simply won't be able to help noticing things. Even small investments help you learn.


    But the main thing you will learn is that..........

    You won't make much money until you start betting in accumulators!


    But before we can run we must learn to walk.
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2017
  17. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Yeah fuck this . The posts are too long to keep my attention and all I'm hearing is "I know how to make money" and fuck all evidence to back it up.

    You wonder why nobody takes you seriously? I'd defy you to re-read your posts without falling asleep.
  18. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    I daresay I may have a bit to say about the events over the weekend and the affect they had on the prices but I want to first ask a question.

    Looking at the handful of markets I mentioned what was the main thing about the subsequent price changes that grabbed your attention ?

    And no I don't want someone saying that the thing that grabbed your attention is that I clearly don't have a clue what I'm talking about,ha.

    Apart from anything else I believe betting singles on long term markets is a waste of time unless you are doing it to learn about betting on such markets.

    In fact I'd hope that the main thing that stood out was how well the favourites tended to do. That's the favourites in the outright markets.

    Only Spurs price went significantly in the wrong direction and that wasn't a big surprise as they were away at Liverpool in a 6 pointer.
    (Spurs price was 6-4 by the way not 5-4)

    Now that was bad for our bets but if that is something that happens much of the time it should lead you to wonder,

    If the favourites in these markets (at this time of the season at least) tend to shorten then would it not be a reasonable idea to bet them in multiples?

    Now hopefully you would then think that the problem with that is that surely lots of people would have noticed such a phenomenon and so it probably isn't true.

    Or even better, yeah but what would happen when the season comes when the prices just stop shortening for no reason. Wouldn't you lose a lot of money?

    So is it normal or isn't it and if it is can you avoid losing money if it stops happening?

    Well I can tell you that I think you should certainly always be closely observing how often the favourite shortens especially from January onwards but also something that's probably at least as important.

    I think you should closely observe how quickly or slowly the price of favourites lengthens when the favourites lose.edit or draws while the second favourite wins

    Spurs price lengthened very quickly . But did you notice the situation in League 2 ?

    On the face of it there seems little reason to think that Plymouths price should still be much higher than Doncasters.

    Plymouth are very well placed and just beat in form Exeter while Doncaster have just dropped two points at the bottom club.

    Yet Doncasters price seems to be falling (edit I mean lengthening of course) rather slowly. If this is normal then that too would tend to suggest that betting favourites in multiples could be a reasonable thing to do.

    But then once again we have to ask ourselves whether it can possibly be true since if it were wouldn't lots of bettors be doing it?


    Anyway there are games tomorrow and Doncaster and Plymouth should be bet if only to ensure that we keep a close eye on developments.
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2017
  19. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Let's deal with the Premiership to be bottom market before moving on to more important matters.

    I said that I had little doubt that betting on the 4 outsiders was a better option than betting on the two favourites.

    And it would certainly appear that I was wrong. Very wrong.

    The first thing to note is that the fact that neither of the bottom clubs won was entirely expected. Sunderland had about a 26 % of winning (their 90 minute price had come in from the bookies initial prices because of bettors overreacting to the previous weeks result and performance so the first price was the better indicator of the true chance in all likelihood ) while Hull of course only had about an 8 % chance of winning at Arsenal.

    So there was roughly a one in three chance of our position being considerably better and a 1 in 4 chance of it being much better (ie Sunderland winning)



    But not only did Sunderland not win they also played very badly and were thumped by a team who the pundits were writing off.That was unexpected and may well have resulted in Sunderlands new price being worse than if they'd lost unluckily.

    Now there are two main things to consider,does what happened mean that what we did was wrong and should we now bet on Sunderland?

    Let's deal with the latter first.

    Whether or not we should bet on Sunderland should in theory at least depend on whether we think their price is value. But let's say it isn't value and I really do believe it almost certainly isn't value . Does that mean we shouldn't bet on them ?

    And that is a question that is fundamental to trying to make money from long term markets.

    When should you hedge and how much should you hedge?

    Its really important that you understand that being able to make sensible decisions concerning hedging is vital to being able to profit from long term markets.

    Of course if you only ever bet small stakes you can often not bother hedging at all. But if you are going to try making the occasional big profit from accumulators it will really help I believe if you have spent some time thinking about hedging and especially how it pertains to your attitude to risk.

    But what about this situation?

    I think that if we had bet £5 each on the 4 outsiders betting another £5 on Sunderland at 6-5 isn't the worst thing you can now do.But everyone will have a different opinion.

    But I'd be inclined to do nothing and hope Palace fail to beat Middlesbrough. However let's lay out £5 on the 6-5.

    But I think there's a much more important thing to learn from this situation.

    In theory betting on one or more outsider was ok if we believed the selection/s were value .

    But could we have done better ? When it comes to long term markets I said that you should never be afraid to bet the two favourites but that if the third favourite is well placed you should also consider betting them also. But I was referring to teams near the top of the table.

    But certainly if we had done that here then our position would be pretty good.

    But we'd have bet on two selections that we didn't necessarily think were value.

    Now you may be wondering whether these particular bets were worth it. And I say yes. Very much so. I firmly believe that only by placing bets on long term markets will you learn about long term markets .

    (But you may also be wondering what I actually know about betting singles on 90 minute markets ?

    About as much as you do quite possibly ! Because I bet only on accumulators . And that pretty much involves going against everything you're told to do on gambling forums especially when it comes to concepts such as value.)


    But not only will you learn you will also of course now have a keen interest in the games at the bottom. I'd say that was value for money

    What do you think the average bettor who bets on 90 minute markets learned last weekend ?
  20. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Was it not to listen to your ramblings?

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