Discussion in 'Other Sports Betting' started by slick, Jun 20, 2019.
odds are correct at time of publishing (21:30 on 20/06/2019) and subject to change.
Probably the most open Tour in years with Froome and Dumoulin out injured.
Team Sky (Now Ineos) haven't looked the team they have in the past this season with one thing or another happening to them and with no Froome they seem to be letting Bernal and Thomas fight it out as they did last year with Froome and Thomas but both are coming back from Injury and misssed warm up tours leading upto this.
I wouldn't at all be surprised to see an outside shot win this years tour, Moviestar looked strong in the Giro and Landa looked to have plenty in his legs, he could we worth a good shout as he did look like he was holding back in the Giro for this tour, although team orders may come into play with him if Moviestar want him to work for Quintana, although the way Quintana has ridden the last couple of years it could prove a big mistake.
TDF Starts tomorrow.
Still open as it's ever been for years and Ineos are still favourites.
Thomas has been playing it down, is it a front? I don't know but he's usually quite honest and hasn't done much since last years win.
On this years form I can't see where the Ineos odds prices are coming from apart from past glories as they have won it six times in the last seven years.
Personally I don't think Ineos are anywhere near as strong as they have been in the past, like I said previously I think Moviestar are the team to beat.
I wouldn't rule out Mitchelton-scott either now they have added Simon Yates to the team, he's there to support his twin brother Adam and they usually ride well together because Simon will go the extra mile to support him and Vice-versa but Adam is lead GC nomineee this year.
As it's so open I'm gonna go for Mikel Landa @ 26's and Adam Yates @ 12's.
I'm ruling out the other front riders ahead of them barring Ineos riders because I've seen them often enough in the past and they have never fulfilled their potential.
I'm going to add Simon Yates too @ 51 just in case anything happens to Adam early doors.
First real test today in the first mountain stage and it's looking very similar to last years TDF with Thomas nicking seconds against his closest GC rivals, seems like he's playing a very canny game as he's been playing down his own chances for months.
Todays stage also shown Bernal is not quite there yet against the best hence the reversal in his and Thomas's odds in the betting, if this happens again then I expect Ineos to demote him domestique for Thomas because Thomas will need all the help in can in the final week as Ineos don't look as strong as they usually do which I half expected tell the truth on this years form.
Landa also gave it a good go today breaking away a few km's from the summit finish but it looks like the Giro may have took his legs even though he seemed to be holding back in that, seems I was wrong and it will take a monumental effort from him to get near the podium going off today's performance.
Adam Yates is still there or there abouts but his team have looked very weak and without support I think we can rule him out, his brother Simon looks fcuked and I'll be surprised if he lasts the tour.
If things continue as they are then it looks like a shootout between Thomas and Pinot with Fuglsang hanging onto their coat tails.
The ITT next Friday could prove pivotal as Thomas (barring no accidents in the mean time) will be looking to gain as much time as possible on his rivals because he is a great time trialist having come from track racing, it's probably also the day Bernal will become his domestique thereafter.
Forgot to add Alaphilipp looks to be on fire and looking very strong on the inclines, 11/4 for him to become King of the mountains looks a decent price even after showing his hand this week.
Richie Porte also seems to be keeping a bit in reserve and full of energy, barring accidents which he is very prone too he could be a good bet for a podium finish but I can't find odds on that.
Don't think anybody expected that on stage 10, should have been the formality of a flat race with no change in GC but cross winds created a breakaway that included Alaphilippe and the Ineos team (Thomas and Bernal) which left the rest of the GC contenders over 1.4 minutes behind.
These sort of gaps were expected to happen in Fridays Individual time trial not on a flat stage, if anything it's caused the most open TDF in years to become just like previous years and Ineos (Team Sky) will be looking for Thomas to gain an advantage in the ITT on Friday and then go onto consolidate his lead like they have done to their Yellow jersey riders so successfully in the past.
Thomas looks nailed on for this now but if Alaphilipp pulls out another surprise who knows, although I do think Ineos will nail him in the mountains.
Rest day today (Tuesday) but the tour continues tomorrow with another flat stage before it hits the mountains for a second time.
So Alaphilipp did pull out another surprise and won the ITT beating Thomas by 14 seconds
This is an all new ball game now as nobody expected that.
Thomas is still favourite as everybody is expecting Ineos to destroy all opponents in the mountains but I'm not so convinced, Alaphilipp looks in a different league at the moment and although his team are no match for them I wouldn't be surprised to see him riding on Ineos's coat tail.
Another week to go and the true mountains start tomorrow with a huge summit finish, followed by another mountain stage on Sunday which could make or break the GC contenders.
I have a feeling Alaphilipp is going to be like a boil on the arse for Ineos and while currently @ 5's bet365 for over all winner he should prove a good shout and give you a good run for the money into the final stages.
Enric Mas also looked very strong today and could prove a good bet @ 2.25 bet365 for the tours young rider classification now Bernal will probably be demoted to Thomas's domestique after a very poor time trial today.
Even though Mas is Alaphilipps's team mate they don't have anywhere near the strength of Ineos and will probably be allowed to ride their own race rather than team orders.
Alaphilipp has another great day this time in the mountains and Ineos look all over the place as I predicted, they look no where near as strong as previous years.
Still a long way to go with another mountain stage tomorrow and the much harder Alps to come next week but if Alaphilipp keeps this up then I don't see anybody touching him and he's now gone into evens for the tour win.
That's not to say its done and dusted though, I've seen this in the past only for riders to blow up in the last week on grand tours because it is a grind over three weeks.
For that to happen Ineos really do need to get their act together, problem is their GC riders look buggered.
Today also brought other contenders back into the fold like Pinot, we'll talk more about them after we see what tomorrow's stage brings and how they finish.
Rest day today but what a stage Sundays Stage 15 was
It blown the tour wide open because it's the first time Alaphilipp has cracked and brought 2 or 3 other GC contenders back into contention, mainly Pinot who is now riding like a man possessed and has now become favourite.
A few things have now happened.
Bernal is showing he is stronger in the Mountains than Thomas which gives Ineos a huge headache because Thomas has a slight time advantage but with three days in the Alps to come this week they will have to decide which rider to back.
Either way neither look as strong as Pinot but the Tour always throws up surprises in the last week.
Alaphillipp has still has over a minute advantage but has now drifted out to 6's because of Sundays performance, He wasn't a mile off the pace and it makes you wonder was it intentional after ripping up all before him in the previous two weeks which would be drawing attention to him doping wise, Froome does the same to look normal for a day or two then usually comes storming back. I'm not saying either dopes but these type of performances do draw suspicion and because it's not always been a clean sport you do have to take it into consideration.
Also with a rest day today and a flat day tomorrow he'll have time to get plenty back in the tank so to speak.
I'm just pissed I never backed Pinot after Saturdays stage when I said he was now back in the fold.
Might put another couple of quid on Alaphilipp though now he's back out to 6's because I don't think he's finished yet.
Every day brings something different to this tour and it seems after the roller coaster of the last couple of weeks we are as we were with INEOS dominating again with Bernal getting them their first yellow Jersey of this tour today.
Their biggest challenger Pinot pulled out of the race today with Injury and it seems Alaphillipp doesn't have much in the tank to tackle the big mountains at altitude, so it looks like the French quest for a winner in decades has been quashed.
The columbians look a class apart in the Alps with Quintana dominating yesterday and Bernal today before the race was abandoned due to a Hail and snow storm.
Bernal leap frogs Alaphilipp and will take a 48 sec lead into what is basically the last stage tomorrow.
I'll hold my hands up and say I didn't think Bernal was ready for this yet being just 22 yrs old and he's looked off the pace all the way through this tour but the Alps have inspired him and he looks untouchable up the long climbs.
He's done it off his own back too as INEOS look nowhere near as strong as their past teams so chapeau to him.
I'd say it's done and dusted now but who knows, this tour has threw up so many twists and turns there maybe a final twist in the tale yet.