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Two Systems for Two Year Olds

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by LHR Racing, Mar 21, 2013.

  1. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    The flat season starts again this Friday at Doncaster and the first 2 year old race of the season for the very early developers takes place on Saturday although that’s looking doubtful with the poor forecast.

    I am going to post some selections for two systems that I have developed for 2 year old racing. One is a backing system and the other is a laying system. Both are based on speed and form ratings that I designed myself. The theory is based on par speeds for the class and form of the race. If a horse exceeds a certain par mark it is supported next time out and if it falls below a certain mark (for course and class) it is laid the next time. The only proviso with the laying system is a maximum price of 6.

    Why two year olds? A couple of reasons – firstly it is an area of racing I’ve always liked. It is nice to be on the lookout for the next Frankel. Secondly it’s a very self-contained area and easier to track for betting purposes. On average around 14,000 two year olds race in a year with around 1,300 races. It’s a lot more manageable than trying to track the tens of thousands that run in all age flat and all weather races. The closed population makes an assessment of collateral form easier. Finally unraced 2 year olds tie in to an analysis of the sires and dams which is something I have also always enjoyed.

    A health and wealth warning first. Both systems were tested live to very small stakes in 2012. For various reasons it was not possible to backtest previous years. Sample sizes are therefore fairly small.

    Some figures from the laying system

    248 Bets 202 Winners
    Strike Rate 81%
    Yield 15.8% (5% commission)
    Longest Losing Run 3 (once) Statistically just under 4 should have been the LLR

    Average Lay Odds (pre commission) 3.77

    I laid to fixed liability of 1 Unit with a maximum price of 6. All lays finished in the top 3 in their last race but ran below what I would rate a par performance. A starting bank of 20 units should in theory be more than enough if the strike rate above was maintained. I would up slightly to 25 units for the extra comfort. I’d be looking to churn the bank at least once and possibly one and a half times with some luck.

    Some figures of interest from the backing system

    643 Bets 212 Winners
    Strike Rate 32%
    Yield 16.7% (5% commission BFSP)
    Longest Losing Run 14 (once). Losing runs of twelve (twice) and ten times (twice)

    I am restricted to Betfair for most of my betting (not hard to get restricted these days) so it may be possible to do better with early prices and best odds guaranteed. There were however a few big winners at BFSP (20s +) so it probably cancels out. I’d recommend a 100 point bank for this. Staking 1 unit.

    For the backing system I will record the prices where they are available with at least two bookmakers preferably those offering the BOG concession. I will be proofing to BFSP as well. As a rule of thumb I personally would take a mixture of live and SP BF prices on selections below 10/1 opening show and have everything over that price at full BFSP.

    I will post bets in future between 10.00 and 10.30 with the odd tip the night before racing if the race is priced up. If there are no qualifiers I will post the same. There won’t be anything for a week or two but I would expect things to start picking up by the end of March / early April.

    That’s it really.
    slick likes this.
  2. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    Purely for interest my top 10 2 year olds of 2010 were as follows ( ascending order)

    Leitri Mor
    Havana Gold
    Van Der Neer
    Gale Force Ten
    Reckless Abandon
    Dawn Approach

    Dawn Approach and Steeler had two runs that were top 10 rated for me so I dragged in Leitri Mor and Ghurair to make up ten unique horses.
  3. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Good luck with your systems. I've used speed ratings extensively in the past and found 2yo ratings very inconsistent, quite a few clocked monster times but were unable to reproduce them. Early season ratings should especially be treated with caution.

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Personally, I don't think I know any two year olds who would be able to understand a gambling system.

    That aside, I'd be very surprised to see any racing at Donny this weekend given the snow that's forecast but good luck with your systems and welcome to Betnod.
  5. slick

    slick Administrator

    Nice post LHR, Goodluck and welcome to Betnod.
  6. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    Only a handful of two year old races so far.Number starting to pick up so hopefully should have a few selections towards the end of next week.