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where the fuck did my post go?

Discussion in 'Feedback and suggestions' started by AnothrSpacecat, Sep 18, 2011.

  1. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

    Messages:
    367
    yeah, couple championship ones and one in league 2.

    normally theres 4/5 a week max, nevermind 7 in one league, goal crazy they think.

    prices were 1.95, 1.84, 1.84, 1.93, 1.85, 1.9, 1.97 in that order, 4/7 would do it.
  2. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

    Messages:
    367
    burnley, middlesbrough and rotherham were the others. let the wisest of crowds gamble better than me please mr god
  3. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

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    3,096
    4 out of 7 Spacecat, thats not bad....is it? :unsure
  4. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

    Messages:
    367
    not great/shite swoops, one more wouldve been nice
  5. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

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    367
    my betfair profit for the day was £1.02 from a total outlay of 110 quid, bargain! they actually went 5/8 in league 1, i just couldnt count.
  6. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

    Messages:
    367
    call of the search, think ive cracked it

    the amount of work ive done to get to the point i can now be lazy is insane.

    rather than finding wise crowds, im using the same process to find stupid ones, won me 190 quid this weekend for about 1/4 of the work. happy days

    taking the first 15ish predictions of the week chronologicaly, who are heavily influenced by the preceding weeks results and are unarmed with latest team news, weather reports etc provides us with seemingly useless data.. it isnt. having them in early gives me time to collate data and add it to the market, nae pressure on time and logically sits better with me
  7. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

    Messages:
    367
    basically i back against them, the stakes vary, loads of maths ive used for years when laying involved
  8. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

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    3,096
    So you're backing against what people tip :thinking as in....us? :lol
  9. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

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    367
    take the number of goals the fans expect, work out the over/under 2.5 odds for that number = x, their wrong odds

    work out the % chance they make it to go over 2.5 = y, the wrong %

    find the percentage chance the market thinks there will be over 2.5 goals = z, the correct %


    y-z=a, the difference in opinion measured as a %, if its a positive number then they think there will more goals than the market, if they think less then its negative.

    multiply "a" by the total number of people polled, thats now our unit stake, its how wrong we think they are as a group.

    we then feed it into the markets as a lay of either over 2.5 or under 2.5, depending on how many goals they think will be scored. if they think 2.67 goals then we lay overs at odds "x" from above, if they think 2.37 then we lay unders at x.

    where our odds are bigger we get matched, where theyre smaller we dont, any matched bet is in my eyes always a value bet given im trying to lay higher odds that i know are wrong
  10. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

    Messages:
    367
    erm.. anybody can lay the wrong odds, its the varying stake thats a game changer for me

    swoops im backing against the combined opinion of a few stupid footy fans :lol i guess im laying their tips
  11. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

    Messages:
    367
    an example today--

    15 people predicted there would be 36 goals, together they thought 2.4 goals will be scored

    the odds for over 2.5 here in a 100% market would be 2.08 (1/(2.5/(2.4/2))), 48%. under 2.5 would be 1.92, (100/52).

    market had 1.86 available for over 2.5, so they thought there was a 53% chance of going over 2.5.

    48 minus 53 = 5% difference in opinion. multiply that by the number of folk asked (15)= 0.75 unit stake

    we head to the under 2.5 goals market as they cunts reckon 2.4 goals, stick in a lay of 0.75 @ 1.92.

    if its matched then happy days, if not we leave it and move on.. today it was 2.12 for unders so wasnt a bet sadly, last minute goal too, wouldve been sweet
  12. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

    Messages:
    367
    ^notts county game
  13. AnothrSpacecat

    AnothrSpacecat YES voter

    Messages:
    367
    mugs taken a pounding tonight, doubled up on them with hardly any games on

    rather than simply doing them on one side of the market i tried it both ways, laying both under+over, had a bet in every game that way.

    expensive on a saturday at that rate

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