X FACTOR Betting

Balls! They have emergency back up at The London Studios. How could they ever rely on a live transmission if there wasn't a back up?

edit: anything that keeps Piers Moron off the screens for a bit longer is a gift from the heavens.

Well that should just kill Kitty off this week. Shocking stage, shocking song. They've given her absolutely no vocal assistance.

C ya Kitty.

Shocking performances this week. Kitty was set up to go. Little Mix didn't stand out. Craig was ok, but boring. Janet sounded like she as singing at a wake and Marcus was predictable (Tulisa got it spot on).

Misha B steals the show again.

Wierd, I thought Misha was underwhelming (most annoying too as I had a pre show punt on her as I thought it was set up for her nicely. She was into 6.4 pre performance, back to where she started by the time she finished.)

Thought Amelia was ok - nothing more, but the early polls and reactions/twitter etc are going nuts for her. Took everything I could from 6 down to 5.60 just after the show - if she continues to poll as well as she has so far she'll be 3.xx midweek :/

It's the voice Beanie. Misha has a flawless voice and sublime camera interaction. She is the only act that belongs on the 'big' stage.

Marcus has gone a bit novelty now. If Tulisa hadn't made her point tonight, Gary would've had him doing the Charleston next week or singing Outkast - Hey Ya!

Amelia is a threat to Misha's support though. She's an easier person to accept, but that doesn't smooth over what are some serious failings when you compare the two. Misha is on a much higher level.

Janet should also feel threatened by Amelia. Amelia has the looks and the fun factor and if men are going to vote, it'll be for Amelia's sultry look.

I don't see anyone else as being in the competition

I don't disagree re: the voice Gav, but her connection with the audience is very weak, and regardless of strong performances or not she isn't building support at all. Whats more the bullying/nasty tag has stuck (unfairly) and it will be impossible to remove now. At the current rate they face a huge battle to get her to the final(which they clearly want.) It looks like Cher 2.0 to me and they'll be delighted if they can squeeze her into finals night.

Marcus' styling was v risky tonight, and he's lost a bit of momentum. The Bruno Mars idea is a good one to pursue, but they then went on to style him as a 50s tribute performer again, for which there's no market. He continues to get no favours from the show, I can't see him getting any in future, and he's treading water imo.

I've traded out of the 19s bet on him at 3/1. Should still make top 3 to land the bets on that.

Louis' comments tonight suggest Janet has been topping the votes in the last few weeks, but another poor week for her.

For me Misha isn't contending, but I agree with your other 3 as being the only remaining realistic winners(with Marcus likely to have the carpet pulled from underneath him at some point.) The show will continue to push Little Mix, but given the Amelia factor they'll need to remove her soon to give LM any sort of chance.

Today's Bettingzone Market Update:

1105: Amelia Lily has returned to the X Factor and she is now the second-favourite at 7/2 to claim victory.

Marcus Collins still heads the market at 10/3 with Boylesports and Craig Colton is also in the running at 9/2 (general).

"Amelia shocked the nation by belting out probably the strongest performance of the evening and has now shown Kelly well and truly that she was wrong to get rid of her in the first week," said Joe Crilly of William Hill. She may well be the favourite by this time next week."

Kitty Brucknell is the 4/6 favourite to depart the show tonight with Janet Devlin (6/1) and Little Mix (8/1) also in trouble.

toby's twitter analysis

http://anlytk.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/xfactor-week-6-wtf/

first bet tonight is 1pt janet devlin @8.0 unibet

this is not a certainty it's just insurance on earlier investments as the show clearly wants rid of her. if she's bottom 2 she's toast.

c'mon gav amelia has a chin bigger that bruce forsyth's, buck teeth, no tits, a fat arse and and looks more like 35 than 17. i know which teen i'd prefer watching in a dutch 'just seventeen' bluey.

Wouldn't have thought you'd be far wrong going for that. The tide has turned for Janet. People are rightly bored of her incessant drone. Facebook has been full of comments for her to go today. People have seen all she has to offer.

it's too hard to call this week so i'm mostly keeping my money in my pocket. expect it will be kitty to go but no value in her odds so 1 pt MIsha B @10.0 skybet based on toby's twitter analysis, the desparate pimping and the fact she just makes people cringe despite her talent. second and last bet (not inluding the very speculative small stakes bets earlier in the week).

Not bad Rob. I think we suggested somewhere that both Janet and Misha could lose votes with Amelia returning. There could be a ploy to balance things here, so as much as it pains me, I would go for the outsider, Misha to go at this point.

boo hoo

Now had that have been X-Factor 1-2 years ago, Misha would have gone. It just shows how unpredictable it has become.

There must be serious concerns over Misha's future, but I can't help feel that Amelia hogged the limelight last night. I think anyone performing right before Amelia last night would have suffered a similar fate.

Who is plan A? Gary, the lead mentor clearly states that Misha would be the first act any record company would sign. Tulisa says she would buy Misha's albums. Kelly says she has a very bright future. Misha is the act with resounding praise and to me, that sounds like a plan A that's backfiring somewhat.

The only other possible act would be Marcus, which would be yet another failure for Syco given the poor track record of male winners. I do not see Marcus bucking the trend.

Janet could jump to the top again with a lively performance next week, but that's only if she looks convincing.

It's a mess

i think it's anyone BUT janet at the moment, which is bad news for me. i wish i could see the vote figures tonight because if she won the vote again after the sustained assassination attempt they must be pooing their pants . i.m sure i saw gary borelow mouth his disappointment as she went through.

littlemix and 'horse face' lily seem to be their marketable acts... expect they'll keep pushing them, but maybe slacken off with misha b. no use flogging a dead horse.

Random Bettingzone Market News:

1200: Kelly Rowland is 6/1 with William Hill to receive her marching orders from X Factor at the end of the series, with rumours that Simon Cowell isn't happy that she chose to eliminate Amelia Lily before the live shows proper.

"It was quite a shock when Amelia got the boot in the first week as she was joint favourite to win at that time," said Hill's spokesman Joe Crilly.

"It would seem that Kelly overlooked her potential and we are now offering 6/1 that Simon gives Kelly the heave-ho at the end of the series citing her astonishing decision to drop Amelia."

Now they've bought out the big guns... Syco managed Susan Boyle, has backed Amelia to win the X-Factor. There does seems to be an underhanded attempt to convince the public that Amelia is their number one choice for victory. Will the public fall for it though?

Frankie Cocozza may be allowed to join The X Factor tour despite drugs scandal

Read more: http://www.mirror.co.uk/celebs/news/2011/11/16/frankie-cocozza-may-be-allowed-to-join-the-x-factor-tour-despite-drugs-scandal-115875-23565449/#ixzz1drkYYtH1

So what they're really saying is, they'll be able to sell more tickets if he was included in the tour?