L
LHR Racing
Guest
A grab bag of trainer based systems
While waiting for the two year olds to get going in earnest.
I’m not a huge believer in torturing lots of data to death to produce systems – the fact that an angle worked 3 years in a row in delivering profit can be meaningless noise in some cases especially with small sample sizes and big priced winners making any profit dependant on a single outlying result. Angles widely known to the general public might produce the same strike rate but weight of money drives prices down to a point where the angle is no longer profitable. A good system has a vampire like existence – in the shadows is fine but wider exposure can cause all sort of unpleasantness.
Notwithstanding that there are certain angles that remain perennially worth exploring. The days since last run for certain types of races and certain types of horses is one that remains profitable year on year. Certain types of sires produce consistent returns on certain surfaces and at certain distances. Most commonly trainers being creatures of habit produce reasonably consistent strike rates year on year. Some angles become at first glance unprofitable over time but a little digging and filtering can produce twists that remain worthwhile. Hannon and Hughes might no longer produce worthwhile returns blindly following but certain subsets might be still worth noting for example. Certain trainers work wonders with older horses (4 and 5) in races that typically don’t favour older horses. Equipment changes, distance changes , class drops and class rises for certain trainers are all worth following.
That’s what this is – trainer based angles. Flat only. Over two years old only. Races in Ireland and the UK only. Criteria for inclusion as a mini system is an expected strike rate of over 20%. Maximum odds no more than 10/1 in a fully formed market of less than 11 runners. Maximum odds of 20/1 in fields greater than 11 (few and far between). Stakes between 1 and 2 units. Suggested starting bank 250 units. I wont go into the angle itself as there are quite a few. Some are up and coming (in my view). Some are currently profitable and others are probably on the downswing but might still have some juice in them.
I will post bets in future between 11.30 and 12.00 when markets are fairly formed. Will quote prices available with more than one bookmaker. No prices from joke outfits Sportingbet and Stan James.
Without further ado.
1 Unit Unless Noted
16.05 Leicster Magic City 4/1 (Gen)
16.40 Leicster Azelle 2/1 (Gen)
17.15 Leicster Dolphin Village 7/1 (Gen)
While waiting for the two year olds to get going in earnest.
I’m not a huge believer in torturing lots of data to death to produce systems – the fact that an angle worked 3 years in a row in delivering profit can be meaningless noise in some cases especially with small sample sizes and big priced winners making any profit dependant on a single outlying result. Angles widely known to the general public might produce the same strike rate but weight of money drives prices down to a point where the angle is no longer profitable. A good system has a vampire like existence – in the shadows is fine but wider exposure can cause all sort of unpleasantness.
Notwithstanding that there are certain angles that remain perennially worth exploring. The days since last run for certain types of races and certain types of horses is one that remains profitable year on year. Certain types of sires produce consistent returns on certain surfaces and at certain distances. Most commonly trainers being creatures of habit produce reasonably consistent strike rates year on year. Some angles become at first glance unprofitable over time but a little digging and filtering can produce twists that remain worthwhile. Hannon and Hughes might no longer produce worthwhile returns blindly following but certain subsets might be still worth noting for example. Certain trainers work wonders with older horses (4 and 5) in races that typically don’t favour older horses. Equipment changes, distance changes , class drops and class rises for certain trainers are all worth following.
That’s what this is – trainer based angles. Flat only. Over two years old only. Races in Ireland and the UK only. Criteria for inclusion as a mini system is an expected strike rate of over 20%. Maximum odds no more than 10/1 in a fully formed market of less than 11 runners. Maximum odds of 20/1 in fields greater than 11 (few and far between). Stakes between 1 and 2 units. Suggested starting bank 250 units. I wont go into the angle itself as there are quite a few. Some are up and coming (in my view). Some are currently profitable and others are probably on the downswing but might still have some juice in them.
I will post bets in future between 11.30 and 12.00 when markets are fairly formed. Will quote prices available with more than one bookmaker. No prices from joke outfits Sportingbet and Stan James.
Without further ado.
1 Unit Unless Noted
16.05 Leicster Magic City 4/1 (Gen)
16.40 Leicster Azelle 2/1 (Gen)
17.15 Leicster Dolphin Village 7/1 (Gen)
+4 Units