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2011 Rugby Union World Cup Betting

The 'mid-week' punting team going well on the cap. :)

Russia v USA tomorrow. Here's a question. The game is in New Plymouth, winds at maybe 24 mph (forecast) not accounting for gusts. What would you think odds for the first try to be converted? 4/6 seems reasonable. Bill has odds of 2/7. Look at it the other way. NOT converted.

You can get 5/2 on this.

James Paterson (USA) can kick a bit, Ruskie bloke no idea. Kicks are being missed in this tournie and Bill Hill hasn't caught up.

6 pts first try NOT converted @ 5/2

(I think the odds are wrong)
 
Any idea how good the Russians are, I watched the USA play us. The pundits here said that the USA was the worst team they had seen at the tournament. (They also said Ireland were a shambles which was true too.) Just wondering if the Russians might stay within 7 points of the USA.
 
Here is a preview I have read on the Russia V USA game.

Russia technical director Kingsley Jones believes the Bears can emerge victorious from their first ever World Cup finals match - if they can secure set-piece possession against the United States in New Plymouth.
Thursday's Pool C clash has been dubbed 'the clash of the superpowers' due to the political rivalry between the nations, but the reality is that this contest may prove Russia's only chance of leaving the tournament with a win to their name as their pool is also populated by heavyweights Italy, Ireland and Australia.
While the USA got their tournament under way with a creditable 22-10 defeat against the Irish, this will be Russia's first taste of the global showpiece, with deputy prime minister Alexander Zhukov set to be in attendance.
Despite the pressure of the occasion Russia have a number of experienced players such as Northampton wing Vasily Artemyev, scrum-half Alexander Shakirov and captain Vladislav Korshunovto to call upon.
But former Sale boss and Wales international Jones knows his side's hopes rest on the need for first-phase possession.
"This is the best team to challenge the USA," he told the tournament website.
"At the start for us, it's about primary possession. We believe we can play rugby and we can cause problems for the opposition team, but without the ball, that is going to be difficult."
USA coach Eddie O'Sullivan, meanwhile, is confident his side will be able to cope with the quick turnaround from Sunday's fixture against his former charges.
The former Connacht boss has made three changes with Saracens full-back Chris Wyles, hooker Chris Biller and prop Mate Moeakiola coming into the side.
"It is a quick turnaround to Thursday's game and we have made minimal changes to the team. We need to build on the momentum we created in the Ireland game and prepare ourselves for an extremely tough test with the Russians," he told the USA Rugby website.
"With the short turnaround we cannot do much physical work, but that doesn't prevent us from preparing mentally to face a Russian team that has targeted the Eagles as their RWC scalp."
Biarritz flyer Takudzwa Ngwenya retains his wing spot and his battle with Artemyev promises to be an exciting tussle.

I am on Russia +8 evns PP
 
Nice one, suirthing. A lot of fine work in this thread, chaps. clap
 
well done suirthing , I was not brave enough to have a punt on that match

New Zealand missing Carter and McCaw , but it appears that Japan are resting some of their players , targeting the third place in the group by hoping to beat Canada and Tonga. Japan have improved in recent years but I can't get that hammering that New Zealand gave them in S.A. out of my mind.
New Zealand have strength in depth in their squad and the replacements will be out to impress. I hope that New Zealand will use this game to make a demonstration to their fans. I can't believe that Japan have depth in their squad. So my bet is New Zealand -53
 
hate to disagree traeth but I'm all over the +55 about Japan, I mean it's 55 points...
 
Good work Traeth. Saw your post and backed them too.

Just looking at upcoming matches and surely Australia (-12) v Ireland at evens (Bet365) offers value. Ireland have been below par for a while now whilst Australia have some proper game changer/flair players.
 
Fair Play Traeth, we seem to be showing the bookies a clean pair of heels with the past week on here:)

Re the Australia v Ireland game, and the comments Speedie has made, I agree that 'Ireland have been below par' they have lost against Scotland, England & France(twice) in warm up games and were awful against the USA. I do not agree with your comments however that Australia at evens offers value. Simply because I never use the term value when betting,:D No offence but I hate the use of that word. The outsider 'Polly McGinty' in the 8.20 at Wolverhampton later is 80/1 and offers 'value' but there won't be many running out to back it :)

Anyhow there is no doubt in my mind that Australia will win, I have read many of the articles that preview the game here and they are all looking at the game and saying we can do it if, we play like this and that, keep our width, depth and patience, draw out Cooper, soften up their defence, clean ball presentation, go low and hard on Pocock....and more of this bollox.
The truth is that time has caught up on the Irish, too many miles on the clock with the best of the team O'Connell, O'Driscoll, D'Arcy etc and the younger players coming into the team are not so good.
I think the match odds for this one are shite and I will not be having a bet, I am up today and I will watch this one tomorrow. With the way the Irish have played recently and Australia beating New Zealand in the Tri Nations, 25 - 20 (27.08.2011)
I think Ireland could get a hammering here. :unsure
 
I've decided to have a patriotic punt on Wales -8
We've stuck with the same side that did so well against S.A.
Gatland has got Wales playing the type of rugby that can beat the Island nations if not anyone else .
Sunday they need to have a good defence and kick for territory .The line out should be good enough , so we can kick for touch.

We've played Samoa twice in the world cup and lost both , I was at that first defeat , they were Western Samoa then and we had to endure the comment " what would the score have been if you'd have played all of Samoa"
I can't see that happening this time :crossfingers


I've been looking at Australia -12 but for some reason I have doubts , so giving that one a miss
Argentina getting a 20 point margin is difficult to see but I'm not trusting Romania
S.A. should win they should get a 22 point margin but a couple of tries by Fiji could throw a spanner in the works. The S.A. defence was good against Wales though so this is giving me a dilema betting wise.
 
There's been a max of 7 pts between Aus & Ire over the last 3 years. But each team is now on a different trajectory; Ireland ageing and very 'flat' of late; Australia now stronger in the scrum and sparking out wide.

Ireland have inspirational returnees
David Pocock slight injury doubt at 7 for Aus
Aus centre pairing a bit 'ify'.

Despite these possible pluses for Ireland, I'm with the Wallabies with James O'Connor on the wing causing real problems.

10pts Australia -12 @ Evens

WakiBet

Goneva (Fiji) score anytime 3-1
Samo (Aus) first try scorer 22-1
Wales by 1-12 11-8

1pt treble
 
Pie Chucker, Is 10pts all in??

an extract from one of the previews I read with some stats : "Ireland haven’t beaten a Tri-Nations team down south in 30 years. Yet, while it’s a leap of faith after recent form, in keeping with tradition, the Wallabies tend not to blow Ireland away physically as South Africa and New Zealand often do. It will require a massive, mean-spirited physical effort, but rugby is as much mental. Thus, if as inspired as one suspects they might be, Ireland can rattle their cage and at least die with their boots on."
OVERALL HEAD-TO-HEAD : Played 20, Ireland 8 wins, 1 draw, Australia 11 wins.
RWC MEETINGS: (1987) Australia 33 Ireland 15; (1991, qf) Ireland 18 Australia 19; (1999) Ireland 3 Australia 23; (2003) Australia 16 Ireland 15.
RWC RECORDS : Australia – Played 34, 28 wins, 6 defeats. Best placings: Winners (’91 and ’99), runners-up (’03). Ireland – Played 25, 13 wins, 12 losses. Best placing: quarter-finals (’87, ’91, ’95, ’03).

I think this game could be close for the first half, but then the old tired legs of Ireland will give away and Australia will turn the screw as they did in the second half when they tore Italy apart - Earlier I said I was going to sit this one out but if I really had to have a bet, I would prefer the half time handicap Ireland +7 @5/6 StanJames.
 
Suirthing - No: 20pts would be about the upper confidence level.
 
"Australia flanker David Pocock is sidelined through injury for Saturday's World Cup clash against Ireland in Auckland"

A big loss to the Aussies.....and a boost to the Irish? Will it make a difference to the Aus -12 Pie Chucker?
 
I'm still with Aus. Just! Small lead HT, 2nd half 2-0 in tries to seal it.

:thumb
 
Looks like more than 2 tries are needed now PC, what the second half prediction?
 
Australia 6 - Ireland 15
Traeth said "I've been looking at Australia -12 but for some reason I have doubts , so giving that one a miss" Wise words Traeth!
WTF happened there? I think the Australians were too cocky bordering on arrogant. Its a good result for future punting as the form book has gone out the window and it will not be so easy for the bookie to price up games. May be something out of the Italians on the handicap as the Irish are getting ahead of themselves a bit now.....heard an Irish commentator just now talking about beating the Welsh!!
 
:roll
suirthing said:
heard an Irish commentator just now talking about beating the Welsh!![/B]
Click to expand...



If we win tomorrow and come second in our group we could meet Ireland in the quarters.
I would prefer meeting Ireland than Australia as I believe we can beat Ireland

I've heard that the Aussies did not want to win as they wanted to avoid meeting Wales :roll
 
I believe you will beat us too! and Ireland will be favs after today, so the handicap may be good, thats of course if we meet, Ireland could flop against the Italians, you would never know, more when we see the prices.
Poor Pie Chucker is on the missing list, he is probably drowning his sorrows someplace all alone....don't despair Pie Chucker, listen to me and Traeth, believe me thats only a loan you gave Wakibet, we will get that back for you :)

I was surprised myself with the Irish win and I doubt that any betting man in his right mind had them backed, I will admit, I said they would lose, but I did say that it would be very tight for the first half and said that the half time handicap was the bet...we don't bullshit on here, if suirthing tips up something on this forum he puts his hand in his pocket and he gets on.....I have copy/pasted my docket below, its a double with the Gaelic Football All Ireland tomorrow, which I believe that Kerry are nailed on to win, I know not alot of people know what Gaelic Football may be, its a mans game, JPR Williams when visiting Ireland once said, that the best Rugby players in Ireland played Gaelic Football!



17.Sep 2011 07:35 Australia v Ireland Half Time Handicap, Ireland +6, 10/11 Won
17.Sep 2011 07:35 Kerry v Dublin Match Prices 70 Minutes, Kerry, 4/6 Open
Double (Pot.Ret. £318.18) Open
 
Staggering improvement from Ireland. Interesting comment from my son (who was at school with with Horwill (and Genia) in Brisbane) ...

"Just watched the Ireland game. I had a feeling Ireland were going to win just by the intensity pre match. O'Drisocoll pre match huddle compared to Horwill... not even close."

Anyway, up and on. Very hard to bet the cap at Wales -8 in either direction. These were the two form teams of the opening exchanges and looks very tight. Wales, just. Maybe it'll be fitness levels that get them over the line.

12pts Wales 1-12 pts @ 11/8

Also, a heads-up for Wednesday when Japan play Tonga. Japan will put out their best XV - the outfit that played France - and I had them as 5 pt favourites in this. Kirwan targeting two wins to finish third in group and therefore qualify for WC 2015. Bookies have the handicap up as Tonga as 12 pt favourites! I'll be piling into that with all the yen I can muster.
 
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