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Cheltenham 2014

ONEDUNME

ONEDUNME

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I'll start with a heads up (although it may be too late now). The price for Sprinter Sacre to win the Queen Mother Chase on Wednesday is drifting like fuck. I've fired some money onto Sire De Grugy at 2/1 (NRNB) in the hope that something may be amiss with it. If so, it will halve in price before the day.

Stick your Cheltenham fancies here
 
Good luck ODM, looks like you got on just in time there as Sprinter has now been officially pulled out.

I've nothing yet, i've booked the week off for it though. I'll probably pinch everybody else's tips this year.
 
I've got some thoughts but only a few bets on where the price is right and NRNB (or NR free bet with vcbet at the mo) is in place.

I think NRNB becomes widespread next weekend. Until then, I'm just making lists of potential bets but I will mention a couple of offers for people to take advantage off if they want to.

Ladbrokes are offering money back as a free bet if your bet loses in the Champion Hurdle and Hurricane Fly finishes first or second.

Paddy Power are offering a free £5 bet every Saturday if you put 5 x £5 horse racing bets on. There are only 2 Saturday's left and it's not worth doing unless you were going to put the bets on anyway but the offer is there.
 
My mate keeps on about More Of That in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle. Unbeaten in 4 races, a Jonjo/McManus horse, reckons he's had a tip for it.
He's not great when it comes to tipping but it's possible i might follow him with a small e.w on this one. BP @ 7/1 at present.
 
I think McManus will have an excellent Cheltenham mate (which means that I will as I follow his horses). Normally he comes into Jan/Feb with his horses not really firing but this year most of them seem to be (even the lesser lights running for lesser money in Ireland or the UK).

I think the only problem is that they have to be placed in the right races and if one is entered for one of the Cheltenham chases and doesn't run, watch for them in the Nationals (all three of them - maybe even the midlands national as well:naughty).

McManus always picks up a 20/1 plus winner as well (and McLernon is an excellent jockey so don't be put off if AP is on one and he's riding the second or third choice). His supposed "best chance" will always wear the white cap but man a time one in a red or quartered cap will take the spoils while AP is still struggling up the hill on it.

I'm not telling you anything that the market won't tell you but here are what I think are his best chances (not in any order).

Tap night and Pendra - Depending on the going and what noises come for other horses, these are the ones that I think you'll get decent prices on during festival week.

Obviously every horse is trying at a meeting like this and nothing can be guaranteed but if I had to pick a tip for the festival, Tap Night would be it. Entered in a race on Tuesday (20/1) I think it may be more likely to run on Thursday in the 400 race. 16/1 at the moment with vcbet (non runner-free bet) but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go off fav. Don't let the ground put you off this one, it will go on whatever the ground Cheltenham is and its last three runs have been at Cheltenham just to be sure its ready.
 
Please take these comments with a pinch of salt because they are only personal views and based on fuck all knowledge of fuck all.

Pendra is entered in three races but its target may bet the last race on the opening day where, again, it may go off as fav although there are strong fancies for manyriverstocross. As soon as there anyone offers 9/1 NRNB on this one, I'm on it. If for some reason it doesn't run on Tuesday it will be up against Tap NIght on the Thursday.

Shutthefrontdoor is a potential future Gold Cup winner in my view but the problem they have this year is who to put it up against. I'd still have to back it if it went for the RSA chase just because JPM is no mug and he wouldn't be running it for nothing but it's more likely to run in one of two races on the opening day and I'm looking for between 10 and 14/1 in whichever race it runs in.
Tuesday is the day I'm at the meeting so a couple of JP winners could possibly point to a winning week for me (although my biggest bet at the moment is Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother on Wednesday)
 
I'm not going to go through every race but here are a few more to keep an eye on

Carlingford Lough is entered for the RSA chase but the fact that its never run at Cheltenham would be a negative. It's between 9 and 12/1 at the moment but you know what occurs to me? The fact that it's entered for the grand national AND the fact that it hasn't ran anywhere other than Ireland so far. Does this mean JP doesn't want the English handicappers to be getting their claws into it too soon? I've had a silly couple of quid on it for the national at 150/1 which is going to look a very good price if it ends up not running at the festival.

My tent or yours - The fact that I've left it this long to mention it probably sums up my view on its chances in the Champion Hurdle. I'll have a saver on it but I have a fancy for Un De Sceaux at a big 14/1 (18/1 coral without nrnb). JP also has jezki in this at 10/1.

Quantitativeesing will be my cross country horse, along with the non-JP Sizing Australia who's proven that it can handle the unique challenges of the cross country course. Last year's winner Big Shu will, understandably, go off fav.

Alfie Sherrin - Getting on a bit but knows the place well so underestimate him at your peril. Possibly one I'll back for just for a place on betfair depending on the prices available.
 
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I think McManus will have an excellent Cheltenham mate (which means that I will as I follow his horses). Normally he comes into Jan/Feb with his horses not really firing but this year most of them seem to be (even the lesser lights running for lesser money in Ireland or the UK).
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That's going to be my plan of attack then i think ODM, Follow the McManus horses.

Pendra might be a very good call. I've barely watched any jumps racing this year and dont really know who's hot or who's not but as soon as i read Pendra, i thought that's the one that Charlie Longsdon bigged up last year, his best hope at the festival.
On checking to see if i had the right horse here (i have) i see that McCoy was on board and it went off 6/1 favourite.
It got slaughtered. Finished 17/28 btn 35L by Medinas. (Medinas is another possible, that i'll be on at the festival).

Anyway, Pendra had some good form going into last yrs festival and then won his next two races after, too. Its just that Cheltenham race with poor form but i'm not going to let that put me off.
 
ONEDUNME said:
......(although my biggest bet at the moment is Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother on Wednesday)
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AP has announce that he's riding Kid Cassidy in the Queen Mother so I'm on for a win at 10/1 and I'll get a bigger price than a quarter of that for a place on the day (even if I have to back in running)
 
My bets are shaping up nicely now and I have a good few bets on. I've abandoned the common sense a
approach in favour of a scattergun approach that I've been slagging off for the last five years:lol

To me, the difference this year is that the whole pack of cards is dependent upon where Willie Mullins puts his horses and the rest will fall into place around that which means the market is as uncertain as it's ever been. I'm putting down win bets at what I consider to be decent prices (NRNB) and will sort the place bits out on or near to the day of racing. I think we'll probably have a thread for each day and I'll sort them out one day this week for any early thoughts.

Annie Power will run in the World Hurdle on Thursday. Best price now is 2/1 and I'm on at 10/3 and 5/2 so feeling good about that already and aim to lay all my bets at some stage for some returns. Most are big enough prices to mean that three or four winners on the week may even be enough to get me a small profit. I'll have a bit ew on the two JPM horses in the race Atfishers cross at 6/1 and more of that at 9/1. I've already got the familiar sinking feeling about this race that I'm going to my horses to win and place to make a decent profit which, from a value point of view, is madness but Cheltenham for me is partly about enjoying the racing and being on the ones I have an interest in and (unlike most the rest of the year) not all about making a profit.

In fact, amend that - more of that looks a possible drifter so I'll delay taking that 9/1 for now.

Another JPM one to add Punter, "If in doubt" for the Pertemps on Thursday (205 race) 8/1 NRNB

Gonna post this now in case i lose it and continue...
 
Paddy Power have Pendra t 9/1 for the Byrne Plate (400 Thursday) whereas some have it at 16/1. I don't know jack shit but I'd have thought that JP will split Pendra and Tap Night up rather than have them in the same race as they are both capable of winning one. Tap Night is 14/1 for this one and I've backed them both NRNB , expecting to have my stake returned on one of them. Who knows?

The Kim Muir - last race on Thursday, Alfie Sherrin ew at 20/1 and Wyck Hill ew (16/1) who ran a cracking race last time out under Tom Scudamore


Friday - Triumph Hurdle, I'm on the non-JPM Le Rocher for small stakes at 8 and 6/1
Albert Bartlett (240) I've backed Captain Cutter (JPM) at 10/1 but I have a very small antepost 25/1 without NRNB on him in the Neptune on Wednesay (which I've added to at 10/1 NRNB) so I'd rather him go for that to be honest. I'll be glad when the big shakedown comes and we know what the fuck is going where:lol. I've found myself in the past backing a horse in 3 races antepost, only for the fucker to go and win a fourth one that I hadn't even spotted it running in. This is worse than hard work.

Gold Cup I've gone for Silviniaco Conti (3/1). I would be less than surprised to see Bobs Worth win it but I was on it last year and am convinced that it would have won the race had it not fell 3 fences from the finish. There are plenty of positive vibes about Last Instalment so if the two market leaders are too short for your fancy, that could be your bet at 7/1

The Foxhunters (4pm) Made in TIme (JPM) - At least this appears to be its only entry so pretty straightforward. 14/1 is the best price available NRNB but I have a feeling bigger will be available at some stage.
Edit 4th march- Don't know how I missed On the fringe but it's currently fav best price 7/2 coral so ive put a decent bet on that one (decent for antepost that is)

Last race of the meeting, Eastlake and Alderwood (both JPM) are both 16/1 NRNB but will take a chance on better becoming available later.
Edit 4th march- taken 16/1 ew on both of these plus 33/1 on kid cassidy in the two races he's not likely to go in (is more likely to go for the queen mother at 10/1)

So that's my run through so far. Apologies for not discussing trips, ground, jockeys etc etc etc. I'm sure we'll get around to it at some stage but that's my canvas laid down and I'll add or amend as the week goes along.
 
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Good stuff ODM, not long now :)

Outside of the JPM horses i'll be looking for a small e.w bet @ 40/1 on Long Run in the GC. Probably not good enough to win it but surely has small place claims having been a winner and placed twice in the race before.

Boston Bob was really unlucky last year, there's some doubt as to whether he'll go there this year but if he does i'll probably be on that.

Knock a Hand is another i'll be taking a look at, he's down for two chases on the opening day. Not sure what the going is likely to be but Soft or Heavy would strengthen the size of my bet.

I'll be mainly small bets again this year but i have to concentrate of the Friday races as that's the day i'm out on it.
 
It seems amazing given that we were panicking over whether it was going to be on or not but the going is likely to be good to soft unless we get a shitload more rain so your unlikely to get your soft or heavy mate. If ur looking at the ground on Tuesday don't forget that, apart from having an extra three days to dry out, they also switch to a different course for ThursdayFriday so even if it looks on the soft side of good to soft (which it probably will) it's still likely to be better going for the Friday.

I just hope the frost and snow stays away as I'm really starting to get excited now.

If anyone's reading this and fancies going to Uttoxeter in nay by the way, give us a shout .
 
Judging by the way some of the bookies have withdrawn the prices it looks as if Long Run won't be going in the Gold Cup mate.

20/1 for the National though if you fancy it
 
I see what you mean, out to 150's on Betfair! I wont take it for the National.

If anyone's reading this and fancies going to Uttoxeter in nay by the way, give us a shout .
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I take it you mean May, i'm in :thumb
 
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