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2011 Rugby Union World Cup Betting

traeth

traeth

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Joined
Aug 7, 2011
Messages
2,045
Points
83
starts on 9th of Sep 2011
these odds from bluesq for outright winner

World Cup 2011

New Zealand 1.57
Australia 4.50
South Africa 8
England 13
France 17
Ireland 26
Wales 81
Samoa 151
Scotland 151
Argentina 151
Fiji 501
Italy 1001
USA 2001
Tonga 2001
Canada 2001
Japan 2501
Russia 2501
Namibia 5001
Georgia 5001
Romania 5001
 
I'm a firm believer in home advantage but that price for the All Blacks is not value for me , I've had a look at Outright Winner - Without New Zealand but different permutations for the finalist does not give any value there either.

Could be worth a lay of New Zealand or back the field which is 2.38

plenty of special bets also available , but will require some research
two that are of interest at first glance :


Most points in a single match in the Tournament - Under 118.5 1.91
Least points in a single match in the Tournament - Over 21.5 1.91
 
handicaps for first few games from paddies

9th Sep 2011
09:30 New Zealand v Tonga (-67.0) 1.90 (-67.0) 31.00 (+67.0) 1.90

10th Sep 2011
02:00 Scotland v Romania (-37.0) 1.90 (-37.0) 31.00 (+37.0) 1.90
04:30 Fiji v Namibia (-32.0) 1.90 (-32.0) 31.00 (+32.0) 1.90
07:00 France v Japan (-50.0) 1.90 (-50.0) 31.00 (+50.0) 1.90
08:30 England v Argentina (-12.0) 1.90 (-12.0) 26.00 (+12.0) 1.90

11th Sep 2011
04:30 Australia v Italy (-28.0) 1.90 (-28.0) 34.00 (+28.0) 1.90
06:00 Ireland v USA (-35.0) 1.90 (-35.0) 31.00 (+35.0) 1.90
08:30 South Africa v Wales (-14.0) 1.90 (-14.0) 26.00 (+14.0) 1.90

17th Sep 2011
08:30 Australia v Ireland (-11.0) 1.90 (-11.0) 26.00 (+11.0)1.90

Can see me going with the underdog in most of these matches apart from the Fiji match

I watched the Ireland/England and Australia/New Zealand matches yesterday and don't think any of the Northern hemisphere teams have a chance.
Had a look at the outright winners again and still can't see any value . I had a look at England , Ireland and Wales prices .
Here are the best and worse
England @11 skybet @19 sportingbet ...didn't anybody at sky watch that game yesterday!
Ireland @21 stanjames @41 paddy power...what do the home bookies know?
Wales @41 skybet @81 bluesq ...with my nationalistic goggles on I've had a small bet on the boys

from what I've seen those three have equal chances of not winning the world cup , so I should be laying England then...off to check now
 
I'll be having one bet on this tournament and that is a sell of Northern Hemisphere points v Southern hemisphere points.

I have to confess here that every sports spread bettor has at least one horror story of how they got a market cpmpletely wrong and my own story is on the same market in the 2007 world cup where I backed the northern hemisphere. There were 12 northern teams (as there is this year) and the tornament was held in France (and Wales and Scotland) but still the make up was +244 for the southern teams.

I saw the rugby club preview on sky and also have read traeth's reviews and it seems to confirm that the big 3 in the south are far bettor (and more ruthless) than the european teams. Add Argentina plus Samoa, Tonga and Fiji etc for potential shocks and also that the tournament is being held in NZ, I'll back the eight v the twelve this time.

I should add that on Sporting Index yesterday this market was quoted as North v South at 20 - 50 and is currently 5 - 35. I think that the South may be favourites come kick off next Friday.

I may be talking through my wallet here but this coud be a market to watch in the next few days
 
G'day folks.

Interesting punt, Colbro. Gives you a wallet interest in every game. South looks good to me.

Wales with a 14 point start v SA looks juicy, Traeth. :naughty

Can't see any value in outright tournie winner.

There's a run for your money in top try scorer, where I suppose you have to go for a Kiwi in an absolute try fest group --
.v. France, Tonga, Canada, Japan. Suppose look for a winger (any info on past tournies anyone?). Henry had to pare it down on the wing from this lot: Victor Vito, Zac Guildford, Anthony Boric, Isaia Toeava, Liam Messam, Hosea Gear, Jarred Hoeta and Sitiveni Sivavatu. Surprisingly he went for the first four. Only one of these plays on the left wing - Zac Guildford - so could get good game time. Was big on him, but then he had a crap game v Aus last week.

More pondering required.
 
Glad u could make it lads, we did have an intro thread but its been merged as its not been used for over a week and was looking a bit lame at the top of the forum, in fact i only did it about 10 mins b4 you two buggers turned up.

I love rugby, more so rugby league, and don't admit to knowing anything about RU form wise allthough i do take a keen interest in the world cup as i think its a fantasic event, I'll be watching all the matches and I'll become more involved as the event develops but from the off I couldn't give any advice other than the fact NZ will probably win it .

I watched the tri nations to sort of get warmed up but i feel there was a bit of bluff going on betwen NZ and the Aussies.

Good luck with ure bets.
 
Early thoughts for opening weekend.

With 43 games ahead, it's obviously only punting practical to spot the matches where the handicap 'feels' wrong and then do a modicum of digging (usually in search of support for the original 'prejudice'!).

One that feels wrong early Saturday morning is Japan being given a 50 point start v France. Japan are no complete mugs and are Kiwi coached (by Kirwen). In their two warm-up games they beat USA 20-14 and then lost to Italy 24-31 - having been ahead at half-time. It's that Italy game that's interesting. Italy beat France 21-20 in March in the 6N. Can you take a direct line of form through Italy to get a handle on this Jap/Frog game? Maybe not. But it does suggest that Japan have a pack that will stand up (Italy forwards their big strength). Also, I think Japan will score; their No. 11 (wing) Usuzuki is a bit useful. I'd call this about 35 points and will therefore be on Japan.

The other one that feels wrong is Fiji v Namibia with just a 32 point handicap. Namibia are IRB ranked lowest of all teams in the tournie and are out of their depth here. Fiji will carve them up. This one should have been the 50 start!

So a handicap double on Japan and Fiji might be the way to get the camel coats playing and missing early on. :thumb
 
An added thought, pursuant to the last line in the post above.

In a tournie like this, it seems to me, the 'pitch seems to flatten out after lunch' as the group games progress. The exposed form starts to lead to handicaps coming up as (at least this) punter might anticipate. It could be a staking plan to welly it early on and then pull back as things progess. Get on top early. :punch
 
Another idea to throw into the mix is that the top three teams in each group will automatically qualify for the next world cup in 2015. I wonder whether this will have a bearing or not on some of the handicaps.
One team that springs to mind here is Georgia who probably won't expect to qualify for the quarters but may target the game against Scotland as winnable. (remember Georgia almost beat Ireland in the last world cup only losing 14-10). The game against Scotland is their first but Scotlands second and comes four days after Scotland open against Romania.
 
i'm in agreement with pie and have done two singles this weekend
Fiji -30 v Namibia
Japan +50 v France
 
I like the sound of this & am thinking of a double on what Pie's saying which is the double of Traeth's singles.

Nice avatar Pie, very Omar Sharif....either that or you are a midget & thats a half :D

Is it my imagination or is Traeth's ship listing slightly to the left :unsure
 
New Zealand v Tonga ... the opening match

the N.Z team from the rugby world cup site

AUCKLAND, 7 Sept. - New Zealand coach Graham Henry on Wednesday announced the team to play New Zealand's opening match in Pool A against Tonga at Eden Park, Auckland, on Friday, 9 September.

New Zealand:

1. Tony Woodcock
2. Andrew Hore
3. Owen Franks
4. Brad Thorn
5. Ali Williams
6. Jerome Kaino
7. Richie McCaw (c)
8. Victor Vito
9. Jimmy Cowan
10. Daniel Carter
11. Isaia Toeava
12. Sonny Bill Williams
13. Ma’a Nonu
14. Richard Kahui
15. Israel Dagg

Replacements:

16. Corey Flynn
17. Ben Franks
18. Anthony Boric
19. Sam Whitelock
20. Piri Weepu
21. Colin Slade
22. Cory Jane

With that side it could be a 70 point margin , cap is 66 so its too close for me
 
Lot of happy agreement so far; that continues with, yeah, leave the NZ opener alone at the quoted spread. And the others, apart from Wales v South Africa.

13 pts looks too big to me. Wales are bristling fit and will really bang into this first game. Key areas seem to be at the (1) breakdown and (2) line-out.

(1) Bakkies Botha may not be fit for this. The opposing number 7, Sam Warbuton, is getting seriously good. Wales could hold their own here and have more puff than the rather ageing Boks as things go on. Wales youngest WC squad ever.

(2) Line-out. I'll be hiding behind the setee on the first Welsh throw. And when the Bok hoofers pump it into touch deep inside the Welsh 22. Victor Matfield is best in tournie at disrupting oppo line-out. If Wales compete here then Traeth's schooner will make port with all flags flying. This could be an upset. I don't see it as a 13 pt start.
 
Racing Post has tipped Scotland to win their group, Scotland have only won their group once in the past 20 years and were eliminated in the Semi Final that year as opposed to the Quarter Final which has been the outcome every time they have finished second (Every other WC)

They are 6/1 to win the group, but the real value must be the 25/1 to be eliminated in the semi final.
 
WakiBet*

Nonu first try scorer (NZ game) 8-1
Japan +47 10-11
Wales win by 1-5 8-1

* an ongoing attempt to land a treble at 3-figure odds at a 1pt stake.
 
Bravo Tonga, 2nd half. Sonny Bill looks dangerous for ABs; Kaino good.

Briefly, I'm

Fiji -30
Japan +48
Wales +14

standout handicaps with t'sport all at 10/11.

15pt treble
 
New Zealand 41-10 Tonga, just watched great second half performance from Tonga , The All Blacks gave a lot of penalties away compared to their usual standard, Clancy the ref was just average , he missed/ignored numerous N.Z. offences in the first half , why didn't he give a penalty try to Tonga in the second half , a definite homer.

Like you I'm on Fiji and Japan , but holding back on Wales , not enough experience at 8 and 10 for me .
Why select Hook at 15 , does Gatland expect S.A. to kick the leather off the ball and expect Hook to run it back?
I'd have Hook at 10 or in the centre , the two centres we've selected lack any flair
I've been see-sawing from optimistic to pessimistic in the build up to this World Cup regard our chances.
I'll probably be in a positive mode tomorrow.

Just read that Fiji have rested a few of their players for the Namibia match.
Namibia play Samoa 4 days after the Fiji match , that will be Samoa's opener , that could be an interesting one handicap wise
 
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